The Failed Ukraine Peace Deal

[MisterBeale]

Trump is right. The war in Ukraine needs to end.

Zelensky is right. Putin will not keep his word.

These are two irreparable facts, and as is always with the Russians there are no easy answers.

Zelensky agrees with Trump that the war in Ukraine needs to end.

However, Trump does NOT agree with Zelensky that Putin will not keep his word.

Thus, you have a disagreement which broke out into an argument in the Oval Office yesterday.

We may not know how this will turn out, but these two facts will not change:

• The war has gone on too long and is at the point where, for comparison, in our Vietnam War the impact of the war spilled out into American streets in disagreements, protests, and riots. The same is not happening in Russia because of Putin’s dictatorial control and censorship of his nation, but the tension and impact of the war is still there in Russia and something must break.
• Putin, who is a thug and a bully by nature, will not give up Ukraine at any cost and therefore any agreement he makes that appears to be a peace gesture is in reality only for Putin to stall the West’s efforts so that he can come back a few years later and try to take a weakened Ukraine again, which based upon past behaviors he will definitely try to do. This in fact is skilled, though quite devious military strategy – to hit the enemy at their weakest especially if they believe the enemy wants peace, and Putin, despite the massive loss of life which means little to him, is a clever and devious diplomatic strategist who is playing the US. Zelensky, the Ukrainians, and most European nations seemingly know this. Trump either doesn’t know this or is ignoring that key fact to secure the very necessary peace deal. But the only way to checkmate a strategist like Putin is to do as Zelensky wants and create a US security guarantee: weapons, ammo, anything to stop the future Russian military advance.

So again: STALEMENT, because Trump right now is the US and the US is not listening to what the Ukrainians and Europeans are saying. The US is only talking about peace and not security. It is surely understandable why Trump doesn’t want to offer security. After all, Putin probably made it clear that he will not accept peace if the US offers security to Ukraine. Trump should know that is classic Putin to accept deals only on his terms, deals that appear advantageous to the negotiator that are in effect mostly advantageous to Putin.

Peace for Putin is just another of saying, “I’ll be back to finish this later.” Security against Putin forces him to constantly reassess, which is what he’s been doing throughout the war until now as he sees a light at the end of the tunnel in this Trump deal and a way for him to eventually get all of Ukraine if he just accepts the “Peace” and waits out the West’s disinterest in Ukraine so that he can finish what he started.

…and perhaps even get more.

This whole thing would have been avoided if the west had kept their promises from the Minsk talks. Now? Putin does not trust the west to keep their agreements anymore than folks here trust the Kremlin.

Leaked phone call reveals fiery exchange between Putin, Macron days before Ukraine war

French President Emmanuel Macron and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin had an intense argument over the phone about Ukraine just four days before Moscow’s forces invaded the country.

nypost.com

". . Putin then took issue with Zelensky’s apparent refusal to negotiate with pro-Kremlin Ukrainian separatists, which infuriated the French president and prompted him to exclaim in audible frustration: “I don’t know where your lawyer learned law!”

Un Président, l'Europe et la guerre

Le 1er janvier 2022, la France prend la présidence du Conseil de l'Union européenne. En entamant son mandat le président français entend pousser de nombreuses réformes auprès de ses partenaires. Mais la guerre en Ukraine bouleverse ses plans. L'Europe, stupéfaite, doit alors affronter sur son...

www.france.tv

Macron and Putin negotiated about Ukraine a while ago​

(This phone call is between Putin and Macron, four days before the invasion, taken from the above linked documentary.)





It was after that, the invasion started.

Months later, Merkle admitted that they were not in the Minsk negotiations in good faith. Their intention was only to give Ukraine time to arm up and oppress ethnic Russians in the Donbas.

Former German Chancellor Merkel Admits that Minsk Peace Agreements Were Part of Scheme for Ukraine to Buy Time to Prepare for War with Russia - CovertAction Magazine

War was inevitable outcome of 2014 U.S.-backed coup in Ukraine Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said in an interview with Die Zeit, published on December 7, that “the 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give time to Ukraine. It…used this time to become stronger as can be seen today. The...

covertactionmagazine.com

Macron Agrees With Merkel: Minsk Accord Helped Europe Prepare for Putin

Merkel admitted in December 2022 that the Minsk agreements were an effective ruse to give Ukraine time to 'get stronger'

trendsinthenews.substack.com

 

[Rigby5]

Its true, that the US and Zelensky are the ones who violated their treaties.

{...
Leaders in Moscow, however, tell a different story. For them, Russia is the aggrieved party. They claim the United States has failed to uphold a promise that NATO would not expand into Eastern Europe, a deal made during the 1990 negotiations between the West and the Soviet Union over German unification. In this view, Russia is being forced to forestall NATO’s eastward march as a matter of self-defense.
...}

These principles of "no eastern advancement of NATO" was also agreed upon by all parties in the Budapest Memorandum, when Russia conceded to remove its retaliatory nukes from the Ukraine.

 

[justoffal]

Trump is right. The war in Ukraine needs to end.

Zelensky is right. Putin will not keep his word.

These are two irreparable facts, and as is always with the Russians there are no easy answers.

Zelensky agrees with Trump that the war in Ukraine needs to end.

However, Trump does NOT agree with Zelensky that Putin will not keep his word.

Thus, you have a disagreement which broke out into an argument in the Oval Office yesterday.

We may not know how this will turn out, but these two facts will not change:

• The war has gone on too long and is at the point where, for comparison, in our Vietnam War the impact of the war spilled out into American streets in disagreements, protests, and riots. The same is not happening in Russia because of Putin’s dictatorial control and censorship of his nation, but the tension and impact of the war is still there in Russia and something must break.
• Putin, who is a thug and a bully by nature, will not give up Ukraine at any cost and therefore any agreement he makes that appears to be a peace gesture is in reality only for Putin to stall the West’s efforts so that he can come back a few years later and try to take a weakened Ukraine again, which based upon past behaviors he will definitely try to do. This in fact is skilled, though quite devious military strategy – to hit the enemy at their weakest especially if they believe the enemy wants peace, and Putin, despite the massive loss of life which means little to him, is a clever and devious diplomatic strategist who is playing the US. Zelensky, the Ukrainians, and most European nations seemingly know this. Trump either doesn’t know this or is ignoring that key fact to secure the very necessary peace deal. But the only way to checkmate a strategist like Putin is to do as Zelensky wants and create a US security guarantee: weapons, ammo, anything to stop the future Russian military advance.

So again: STALEMENT, because Trump right now is the US and the US is not listening to what the Ukrainians and Europeans are saying. The US is only talking about peace and not security. It is surely understandable why Trump doesn’t want to offer security. After all, Putin probably made it clear that he will not accept peace if the US offers security to Ukraine. Trump should know that is classic Putin to accept deals only on his terms, deals that appear advantageous to the negotiator that are in effect mostly advantageous to Putin.

Peace for Putin is just another of saying, “I’ll be back to finish this later.” Security against Putin forces him to constantly reassess, which is what he’s been doing throughout the war until now as he sees a light at the end of the tunnel in this Trump deal and a way for him to eventually get all of Ukraine if he just accepts the “Peace” and waits out the West’s disinterest in Ukraine so that he can finish what he started.

…and perhaps even get more.

Yeah that seems about accurate.... The only part You left out is how everyone expects the United States to pick up the tab for the next upmpteen years... Which is insane.

Paying for a war to continue is idiocy when you can pay for it to stop.

 

[Soupnazi630]

Its true, that the US and Zelensky are the ones who violated their treaties.

{...
Leaders in Moscow, however, tell a different story. For them, Russia is the aggrieved party. They claim the United States has failed to uphold a promise that NATO would not expand into Eastern Europe, a deal made during the 1990 negotiations between the West and the Soviet Union over German unification. In this view, Russia is being forced to forestall NATO’s eastward march as a matter of self-defense.
...}

These principles of "no eastern advancement of NATO" was also agreed upon by all parties in the Budapest Memorandum, when Russia conceded to remove its retaliatory nukes from the Ukraine.

Liar

 

[justoffal]

Liar

Truth teller

 

[Hyddan92]

Putin won't keep his word?

The NATO cartel promised Russia that they wouldn't expand, right before they expanded into several nations....Ukraine was the line in the sand.

That's a myth, it was never a promise, even less any kind of deal or guarantee, just some words uttered by some men in some negotiations that never materialized into anything. Russian propaganda ofc loves to push this lie as much as possible.

 

[Zavulon]

That's a myth, it was never a promise, even less any kind of deal or guarantee, just some words uttered by some men in some negotiations that never materialized into anything. Russian propaganda ofc loves to push this lie as much as possible.

First of all, its not even about formal guarantees or something. First of all, its about common sense. "If you stay where you belongs - there will be peace. If you go eastward and start killing Russians - we'll kill you (may be all of you)" And NATO agreed: "We are sane people, we don't want to die, we'll never go eastward". But with the raising of insanity and madness among western politicians (and ranks and lines), they decided that it is quite safe to go eastward and kill Russians (as Europeans do at least twice a century). Its your fatal mistake.

 

[Hyddan92]

View attachment 1087132


First of all, its not even about formal guarantees or something. First of all, its about common sense. "If you stay where you belongs - there will be peace. If you go eastward and start killing Russians - we'll kill you (may be all of you)" And NATO agreed: "We are sane people, we don't want to die, we'll never go eastward". But with the raising of insanity and madness among western politicians (and ranks and lines), they decided that it is quite safe to go eastward and kill Russians (as Europeans do at least twice a century). Its your fatal mistake.

It was words, not a treaty, and it was with the Soviet Union, not Russia, plus the way it was formulated it could also be interpreted as a promise to not deploy troops from other Nato countries to the east, something that wasn't done until Russia started it's aggressions.

And killing what Russians?

 

[Blaster]

After the Soviet Union's collapse in the early 90's, Ukraine was left with the world's third-largest nuclear stockpile. In a treaty called the Budepest Memorandum (1994), Ukraine agreed to trade away its nukes, warheads and other nuclear infrastructure in exchange for guarantees that the three other treaty signatories — the U.S., the U.K. and Russia — will "respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine. But Russia (Putin) did not honor that agreement, and here we are.

If you were Ukraine, would you trust Putin to keep his word? Trump thinks he would, but why? Putin's objective has always been clear: he wants to restore the old USSR. He's not going to let a little thing like honesty and integrity get in his way.

Bill Clinton was instrumental in Ukraine giving away its nuclear stockpile.

 

[Zavulon]

It was words, not a treaty, and it was with the Soviet Union, not Russia, plus the way it was formulated it could also be interpreted as a promise to not deploy troops from other Nato countries to the east, something that wasn't done until Russia started it's aggressions.

Bla-bla-bla. You are trying to play with words, but its simply irrelevant. You came eastward, you started to kill Russians. It means that the Russians are fighting back and going to kill you all (if necessary).

 

[Hyddan92]

Bla-bla-bla. You are trying to play with words, but its simply irrelevant. You came eastward, you started to kill Russians. It means that the Russians are fighting back and going to kill you all (if necessary).

As far as actually breaking treatys goes, what was it Russia promised Ukraine when it gave up it's nukes hmm? Was it "we're going to invade you and steal your children"? I don't think it was. And that was an actual treaty, signed by the actual Russian Federation. And they broke it.

And do you have any idea of why the former eastern bloc countries wants to join Nato so fucking bad? Beacuse they know Russia can't be trusted and they don't want to die or be enslaved. Russian Behaviour towards it's neighbours is the root cause of all of this.

 

[Zavulon]

As far as actually breaking treatys goes, what was it Russia promised Ukraine when it gave up it's nukes hmm? Was it "we're going to invade you and steal your children"? I don't think it was. And that was an actual treaty, signed by the actual Russian Federation. And they broke it.

We signed that treaty with Ukraine owed to be neutral and with equal rights for all citizens (including Russians). This Ukraine ceased its existence in 2013, during Euromaidan coup.

And do you have any idea of why the former eastern bloc countries wants to join Nato so fucking bad? Beacuse they know Russia can't be trusted and they don't want to die or be enslaved. Russian Behaviour towards it's neighbours is the root cause of all of this.

Just prejudice. Russia can be trusted. When Russia said, that she won't tolerate any attempts of Ukrainian NATO membership - you can trust, that Russia will do it. When Russia said, that she will de-nazificate Baltic states, you'd better believe it.

 

[task0778]

Bill Clinton was instrumental in Ukraine giving away its nuclear stockpile.

If I remember right, Putin promised not to invade or attack Ukraine and we promised to support them in that event. Putin lied and we did too. I am not sure what our security assurances were, but apparently not enough.

 

[Hyddan92]

We signed that treaty with Ukraine owed to be neutral and with equal rights for all citizens (including Russians). This Ukraine ceased its existence in 2013, during Euromaidan coup.


Just prejudice. Russia can be trusted. When Russia said, that she won't tolerate any attempts of Ukrainian NATO membership - you can trust, that Russia will do it. When Russia said, that she will de-nazificate Baltic states, you'd better believe it.

And they don't have equal rights? And ousting a deeply impopular president is not exactly ideal but I don't see how that affect Ukraine's neutrality to the extent Russia has to invade.

Ukraine has not been about to join Nato ever, Nato countries made that clear, then Russia invaded anyway.

Lol, "de-nazificate", "russianize" is the word you're looking for.
And do you really want Russia to attack the Baltic? Russia can't handle Ukraine you think they can take on Europe?

 

[Zavulon]

If I remember right, Putin promised not to invade or attack Ukraine and we promised to support them in that event.

Putin didn't neither invaded, nor attacked Ukraine.

Putin lied and we did too. I am not sure what our security assurances were, but apparently not enough.

Everybody lies.

 

[task0778]

Putin didn't neither invaded, nor attacked Ukraine.

Sure looks like it to me.

 

[Zavulon]

Sure looks like it to me.

It was Ukraine who attacked allies of Russia - LPR and DPR.

 

[Hyddan92]

It was Ukraine who attacked allies of Russia - LPR and DPR.

Those were illegal breakaway states formed by Russian troops, Ukraine has all the right to fight them.

 

[Zavulon]

Those were illegal breakaway states formed by Russian troops, Ukraine has all the right to fight them.

Really? All six million citizens were Russian troops? Don't be that stupid.

 

[Ringo]