45% of the vote in NY23 went to an underfunded, late entry that was unsupported by either major party. As an indicator, to anyone with a political brain, that is not good for either the DNC or the GOP. While the droolers may scream about who won etc, those who actually get it, will still be looking at NY23 as a 'holy fuck' for both major parties.
Whether you like it or not, the political animals are asking how that would play on a national level.
I think I've demonstrated in my posts that I've got as much of a brain as you do, and my analysis is a bit different (and more in line with that in this week's Economist).
Winning NY's 23rd district wasn't any kind of endorsement of the Democratic party - but it was a clear screw-up by the GOP, which - lacking any actual leaders with clout - split their support between the Republican, and the Conservative-party candidate. And so, a district that
went to the GOP last election with 65% of the vote was picked up by the Democrats, giving them one more vote for the Health Care bill (which will possibly pass today, with the help of Owens, who is voting for it).
So to the Democrats - who have watched the Republican party control that House seat
since 1852, this was just a chance at getting a momentary, tactical win from the confusion and intra-party squabbles in the GOP.
It wasn't any kind of shot across the bow that Hoffman managed to do as well as he did - at least, not a shot across the bow to the Democrats, who lose by a wide margin to the Republican there year, after year, after year. It *was* a clear signal that the GOP is potentially fracturing along the moderate/extreme conservatism fault-line that the party was able to straddle for so long.
It's also a sign of what could happen in other districts, if the far-right conservatives start mounting serious primary challenges to other "moderate" Republicans next fall - they could end up splitting the vote, and handing what
would have been a clean win to a Democrat. Whether that really happens or not - most districts don't have a strong third-party, unlike D23 - remains to be seen.
At the end of the day, the GOP had one meaningful win, and that was in Virginia, which Democratic strategists are no doubt concerned about. New Jersey was sort of expected - Corzine was very unpopular, and even Obama's personal visits could only do so much, and it wasn't enough to save him from a the Republican, who actually ran a pretty good campaign (and hopefully will clean up some of the massive corruption in the state).
The Dems had one tactical win - NY 23 - but it was only "meaningful" in the sense that they're hoping Sarah Palin and company duplicate that "kill the RINOs" pattern next fall, to minimize losses in the House and Senate.
Right now, it's 258 - 177 in the House, and 60 - 38 (+2 Dem-leaning indies) in the Senate. It's hard to imagine the GOP losing any more seats, since they really don't have that many to lose, but it's equally hard to imagine that they'll retake either house (it's virtually impossible for them to take the Senate, only 1/3 of members are up for re-election).
It's frustrating, even for me, as a moderate Democrat, because I don't really like to see any party enjoy unfettered power for too long (although it's better when Dems do, they're so disorganized, it takes longer for them to really abuse the power), but I think it's good that the GOP is going thru this "battle for the soul of the GOP", because ultimately, the moderates will win that battle: not only do the moderates outnumber the hard-right conservatives (witness McCain's nomination over less moderate candidates), but a hard-right platform is one that will never win a majority of American votes - and so it's a recipe for permanent "minority party" status.
Eventually, when they're tired of losing elections and having a smaller and smaller say in government, the moderate Republicans will re-take control of the party, and shift it back to the center. Anyone with a political brain (as you put it) can see that this is almost inevitable, including Republicans like Newt Gingrich (who I can't stand, but he's no idiot), and Huckabee (who has recently said that the GOP can accommodate "moderate" republicans like Scozzafava).
In the meantime, both sides are spinning the story, but the bottom line is that the GOP handed the seat to the Dems as a result of their intra-party battle between the "establishment" GOP and this uprising by the tea-baggers and Palinites.