JakeStarkey
Diamond Member
- Aug 10, 2009
- 168,037
- 16,524
- 2,165
- Banned
- #1
If the RCP averaging holds up, the predictions are a high probability that Clinton will win but the extent of victory remains problematic. She leads anywhere from 5.5 to 9 points in a two way race and by 5.5 in a four way race. And of course it all depends on who and how many show up to vote and how the perceptions of HRC and DJT morph. How the electorate sees her emails and his income tax returns will impact the final decision, but I am not sure that the issues will determine victory or loss.
What is important, I think, is the net difference in the favorability ratings. Her minus 10.5 should be disastrous until compared to her opponents minus 29.7. Those figures are Trump’s challenge. Change those numbers, he can win. If he can’t change them, he will lose.
Clinton leads in all the battle field states and all of the states Obama captured in 2012. She is contesting in AZ and GA. Watch her to see if she scales back in VA and CO. If so, she is going after red meat states.
Some believe that the election turnout will be low. If so, Trump will have a chance, even if only slight. If it is average to high, the only question is how big the landslide for Clinton.
Syria and what to do I am perplexed as Comrade Donald on what to do. Hillary certainly failed.
What is important, I think, is the net difference in the favorability ratings. Her minus 10.5 should be disastrous until compared to her opponents minus 29.7. Those figures are Trump’s challenge. Change those numbers, he can win. If he can’t change them, he will lose.
Clinton leads in all the battle field states and all of the states Obama captured in 2012. She is contesting in AZ and GA. Watch her to see if she scales back in VA and CO. If so, she is going after red meat states.
Some believe that the election turnout will be low. If so, Trump will have a chance, even if only slight. If it is average to high, the only question is how big the landslide for Clinton.
Syria and what to do I am perplexed as Comrade Donald on what to do. Hillary certainly failed.