"Republicans work from a base line that includes a full extension of the Bush tax cuts. The Democrats base line assumes the expiration of the tax cuts for families earning more than $250,000.
The Congressional Budget Office uses yet another base line, one that assumes that all of the Bush tax cuts will expire, because thats what current law says will happen at the end of 2012. The difference in revenue between the Republican and the current-law scenario exceeds $4 trillion over 10 years.
So before we can even discuss what a new tax code should look like, we somehow need to resolve the most polarizing question in American politics:
Should taxes be higher or lower?
Its extremely unlikely that the two parties will come to an agreement on their own. Luckily, they dont have to. If they simply continue to disagree, at the end of this year the Bush tax cuts will expire, and two of the competing base lines will fade away, leaving only the CBOs standing.
Some Republican staff members say that, though they oppose this outcome, it would actually make tax reform easier by enabling both parties to sell reform as a huge tax cut that reverses the expiration of most of the Bush tax cuts.
Heres why: Using the Republican base line that assumes all of the Bush tax cuts are extended, President Obamas plan amounts to a $1.5 trillion tax increase. But using a base line in which all of the Bush tax cuts have expired, a tax reform plan that hits the same revenue target as Obamas amounts to a $2.5 trillion tax cut. Neat, huh?
Thats not just a PR point: Tax reform would, in that scenario, actually be a huge tax cut because, after expiration, taxes really would have reverted to a much higher level.
Reality is always more compelling than base lines. The two parties would still have to settle on a final revenue number, but at least they could agree on one that would cut taxes on almost all Americans.
Which highlights another reason that letting the Bush tax cuts expire might lead to tax reform: Their sudden withdrawal would be so calamitous to the economy, and so embarrassing to Washington, that the crisis could force the two parties to fast-track a reform plan, saving most taxpayers from feeling the bite of Washingtons failure.
Its sad to think that the only way to save the tax code might be to let it collapse at the end of the year.
But that doesnt mean it isnt true."