SassyIrishLass, post: 20007470
It's a yes or no question you feeble moron. As long as that debt is outstanding and unfunded a surplus is impossible. It's simple economics
What do you mean by ‘unfunded debt’?
If a government has all the funds to service all its obligations it needs not take on any debt.
Please explain. Don’t run.
So here is what unfunded debts are. This is going to be detailed, because the topic is just complicated.......
Actually a better, more defined term is,
unfunded obligations. A great example would be the California teachers retirement.
So, the government takes money from teachers paychecks, and puts it into the retirement system.
Now the retirement system purchases assets (usually crap), that grows very little in value.
But the retirement has a defined benefit, which means pensioners are promised a certain payout, regardless of what the assets do.
So if the assets do not produce enough growth, to cover the defined benefit, you end up with an unfunded obligation.
To have a perspective, let me compare to my IRA investments.
I take money out of my check every month, and have it invested in an IRA fund, into high-growth mutual funds. I have no defined benefit, because I have no idea what my investments will do. If my investments do really super great, I'll end up a millionaire. If my investments do poorly, I'll end up with half a million. I have no idea how well my investments will go, so I have no idea what my benefits will be.
Either way, I'll get out of my investments, whatever growth they provide.
In the state run retirement, there is no connection between how well the invests do, and how much benefits they get. If the investment do super well, then everyone gets exactly what benefits are defined for them. The surplus is kept by the state, and used for other beneficiaries.
However, if the investments do poorly, and the growth from those investments do not cover the cost of the benefits, then you end up with an unfunded obligation.
The retirees are promised X benefit. But the value of the assets does not cover that benefit. The short-fall is the unfunded obligation.
Now I mentioned before, that the assets purchased by these plans are usually crap. There is in fact a very specific reason for this.
It's called politics. Because the retirement system is run by the state, it is naturally politicized, and used as a political football.
When you invest, the more risk there is in the investment, the greater the interest is on that investment.
For example, my investments gave me a 23% return on my investment last year. Why? Because they were high risk investments. My investments go up and down, all the time.
Unfortunately, in politics, an opponent could use the fact the retirement system assets dropped in value, as a political football, to claim you are badly managing the system.
Even if the short term drop in value, that quickly recovers, posed no problem to the retirement system.... your political opponent could still use that to hammer you in an election.
So naturally state retirement systems often invest in absolute garbage. Stuff that has extremely low risk. The problem is, low risk, also has low growth.
So you defined benefits, that require growth in order to fund those benefits, and you have a political system with incentives to invest in extremely low growth investments.
The result is $1.3 Trillion dollars in unfunded obligations.
This is why nearly every pension system around the world, is in trouble.
World faces pensions crisis, warns OECD