Spy Report-What Went Wrong

[Annie]

Bottom line, they need to share, big question, how to do that? History of competition...

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050331/ap_on_go_pr_wh/intelligence_commission

Panel: Agencies 'Dead Wrong' on Iraq WMDs

6 minutes ago White House - AP


By KATHERINE SHRADER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - In a scathing report, a presidential commission said Thursday that America's spy agencies were "dead wrong" in most of their judgments about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction before the war and that the United States knows "disturbingly little" about the weapons programs and threats posed by many of the nation's most dangerous adversaries.

The commission called for dramatic change to prevent future failures. It outlined more than 70 recommendations, saying that President Bush must give John Negroponte, the new director of national intelligence, broaders powers for overseeing the nation's 15 spy agencies.


It also called for sweeping changes at the FBI to combine the bureau's counterterrorism and counterintelligence resources into a new office.


The unclassified version of the report does not go into significant detail on the intelligence community's abilities in Iran and North Korea because commissioners did not want to tip the U.S. hand to its leading adversaries. Those details are included in the classified version...

 

[Merlin1047]

Call me pig-headed if you like, but I still believe that there were WMDs and that they still exist somewhere, either in Iran or Syria.

The undeniable facts that we KNOW beyond question are:

1. Saddam did possess WMDs in the form of nerve agents and other gasses.

2. There was no evidence that Saddam ever destroyed these agents.

3. To date, we have found little that can be called WMDs.

Since we know beyond question that Saddam did at one time possess WMDs, then the only question that remains to be satisfied is - What happened to them?

As I see it, the only credible possibilities are:

1. He used his entire arsenal of WMDs in his attempts to exterminate the Kurds and others.

That is possible, but not likely, unless Saddam owned only a trivial amount of nerve agent. The casualties that we know of were not produced by any mass use of nerve agents.

2. Saddam complied with the UN demand to destroy his stockpile of nerve agents.

HIGHLY unlikely. Saddam was not one who was amenable directives from anyone. If he destroyed these agents, he would have had to have done it in secret. Why would he do that?

3. The nerve and other agents still exist in storage somewhere.

That, in my opinion, is the most likely scenario. Either they are hidden in a secret vault somewhere in Iraq or they have been transferred to neighboring countries.

Personally, I believe that our intelligence people had it correct. I think it's the politicians who cannot think beyond whatever suits their purposes that can't get it right.

 

[Annie]

Merlin, you may well be correct. If so, I hope the stuff I've heard about how they degrade is spot on. Hopefully they could not be used.

 

[Merlin1047]

Merlin, you may well be correct. If so, I hope the stuff I've heard about how they degrade is spot on. Hopefully they could not be used.

Hard to say.

http://www.fas.org/irp/gulf/cia/960705/73919_01.htm
Subject: SHELF LIFE OF IRAQ'S CW AGENTS

Not Finally Evaluated Intelligence


TO FACILITATE ELECTRONIC ACCESS, THIS DOCUMENT HAS BEEN

REFORMATTED TO ELIMINATE INFORMATION THAT DOES NOT PERTAIN

TO GULF WAR ILLNESS ISSUES OR THAT IS CLASSIFIED. A COPY OF

THIS REDACTED DOCUMENT, IN ORIGINAL FORMAT, IS AVAILABLE ON

REQUEST.


20 FEBRUARY 1991

MEMORANDUM

SUBJECT: SHELF LIFE OF IRAQ'S CW AGENTS

1. CIA AND DIA AGREE THAT IRAQLS CURRENT STOCKS OF

MUSTARD ARE STABLE AND SHOULD REMAIN EFFECTIVE FOR SEVERAL

YEARS. ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT PROVIDE A BREAKDOWN OF THE CURRENT

INVENTORY, CIA ESTIMATES THAT THE STOCKPILE IS DIVIDED FAIRLY

EVENLY BETWEEN MUSTARD AND NERVE AGENTS



2. CIA AND DIA HAVE DIFFERENT ASSESSMENTS OF THE SHELF

LIFE OF IRAQ'S UNITARY NERVE AGENTS. BOTH AGENCIES AGREE THAT

IRAQ HAS ENCOUNTERED DIFFICULTY OVER THE PAST THREE YEARS WITH

THE SHELF LIFE OF ITS UNITARY NERVE AGENTS. DIA BELIEVES THAT

THE PROBLEM PERSISTS, THAT THE STOCKPILE OF NERVE AGENTS WILL

BE UNUSABLE BY LATE MARCH, AND THAT DAMAGE TO PRODUCTION

FACILITIES WILL FORCE THE IRAQIS TO RELY ON STOCKPILED AGENTS.

CIA BELIEVES THAT A SUBSTANTIAL SEGMENT OF IRAQ'S NERVE AGENT

STOCKPILE CONSISTS OF BINARY CHEMICAL WEAPONS--WHICH WOULD NOT

BE SUBJECT TO DEGRADATION. CIA ALSO BELIEVES THAT THE SHELF

LIFE PROBLEM WAS ONLY TEMPORARY AND THAT THE IRAQIS EVEN NOW

MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE UNITARY AGENTS OF SUFFICIENT QUALITY BY

ADDING A STABILIZER OR IMPROVING THEIR PRODUCTION PROCESS.


SUBJECT: SHELF LIFE OF IRAQLS CW AGENTS


5. DIA BELIEVES IRAQ HAS HAD INSUFFICIENT TIME TO PRODUCE

LARGE AMOUNTS OF BINARY CW AGENTS.


MEMORANDUM

SUBJECT: IRAQI CBW STOCKPILE

CHEMICAL WEAPONS:

THE STOCKPILE PROBABLY IS FAIRLY EVENLY DIVIDED BETWEEN BLISTER

AN NERVE AGENTS. THE MOST LIKELY AGENTS ARE THE BLISTER AGENT SULFUR MUSTARD AND
THE NERVE AGENTS SARIN AND GF. WE ASSESS THAT MOST OF THE SARIN AND GF ARE

WEAPONIZE IN BINARY FORM AND DO NOT NOT SUFFER FROM THE LIMITED SHELF-LIFE

PROBLEM PREVALENT DURING THE IRAN-IRAQ WAR. IRAQ

PROBABLY ALSO HAS SMALL QUANTITIES OF THE ADVANCED NERVE AGENT VX, AND MAY HAVE
LIMITED AMOUNTS OF OTHER AGENTS IN ITS STOCKPILE.



IRAQ MOST LIKELY HAS WEAPONIZED THESE AGENTS IN AERIAL BOMBS, MORTAR ROUNDS,

ARTILLERY SHELLS AND ROCKETS, AND MISSILE WARHEADS.

WE BELIEVE THAT BOMBS AND ARTILLERY MAKE UP THE BULK OF IRAQ'S CHEMICAL ARSENAL. TO

GIVE AN IDEA OF THE QUANTITIES OF MUNITIONS AVAILABLE, ONE TON OF AGENT WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO FILL ROUGHLY TEN 500-KG BOMBS, 150 122-MM ARTILLERY ROCKETS,

OR 350 152-MM ARTILLERY SHELLS


BIOLOGICAL WEAPONS:


THIS QUANTITY OF AGENT WAS PRESENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE

CONFLICT, AND MOST OF IT PROBABLY REMAINS INTACT. WE ASSESS THAT THE LARGE MAJORITY

OF IRAQ'S BW AGENTS ARE IN WEAPONS SUCH AS AERIAL BOMBS AND ARTILLERY, AND POSSIBLY

MISSILE WARHEADS. A SMALL QUANTITY OF AGENT WOULD LIKELY REMAIN IN BULK FOR

DISSEMINATION FROM SPRAY DEVICES