Soon war with Iran?

[mightypeon]

Well, a "bipartisan policy center" in which the foreign policy advisor of Obama plays a role has produced the following paper:

http://www.bipartisanpolicy.org/ht/a/GetDocumentAction/i/8448

The highlights:

The president is to immidiatly increase the military presence in the gulf, parallel, Iran will get the offer of a negotiation. However, this negotiation will be, as I read it, the stating of an Ultimatum. The kind of controll regime the US wants to install seems to be appropriate for something one can do with a defeated oppoenent, it is unlikely Iran will agree. After suitably using the Iranian refusal to gain public support, the plan calls for a financial and economic blockade, including a sea blockade of the persian gulf as well as a potential air blockade (blowing up freighters) of the Kaspian sea. Both would cleary be acts of war under international law, since both would also result in an immidiate Iranian reaction, a Casus Belli would not be hard to come by. The military aspect is laid out with almost no detail at all, and can be summed up as "bomb", "bomb more", "bomb even more" and, if they dont capitulate, maybe "nuke".

The report makes some outrageous claims about Iran getting Nukes in 18 days, which is so retarded that its not even worth complaining. Even the authors agree that, under their calculations, Iran would need about 12 times the centrifuges it has to be even close to that estimate.

Well, invest money in military suppliers, theyll get some new orders soon.

 

[Lycurgus]

Interesting.

I don't think anyone really knows how close or far away Iran is from a deliverable weapon.

Further, I cannot see us in a war with Iran.

A lot of considerations clearly come into play, this is a very complex issue. Israel is a huge factor in this. If Israel truly feel a real threat from Iran, no one is going to talk them down, not even the United States, unless we promise to take military action. If Israel would strike Iran it could set off the entire region or at least set it back decades. Iran and frankly the other Arab nations combined cannot handle Israel so I doubt it would cause a region wide war, but, it could cause one between Iran, Syria and Israel.

If we strike Iran, it will not be a war, I cannot see us putting troops on the ground. Grant it, we already have some in there, but, I could not see it being anymore than the type of operations already taking place.

But, with the air strikes and drone strikes, how far do we go? We cannot afford to let Israel strike Iran, frankly that opens up a can of worms we don't need.

Russia seems pleased with sitting back as much as possible and letting this dog us and so does China, though IMO Russia is the real player who could help here.

So let's get this picture, Obama moves troops out of Iraq and increases our numbers in Afghanistan and then launches air strikes against Iran and we can only guess what their response will be.

My military service well let's just say all of this is above my pay grade. However, IMO if we are going to strike Iran, then we need to hold off removing troops from the region until we see what the end result is.

There are other factors. How will Iraq respond. Where does Turkey stand? What about the Saudi's?

And then of course the fringe groups who already battle Israel daily and Syria.

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

Let's not forget that all evidence shows that Iran stopped it's nuclear weapons development in 2003. There's no reason to go to war with Iran, even if they had a nuclear weapon.

 

[Lycurgus]

Kevin you bring a good question forth. You is the one or ones to decide who can have this capability and who cannot? IMO it is obvious that some nations are either too unstable politically or too radical in threatening ways towards others to be trusted with such a possible weapon. But, denying the energy production is counter productive. So what are the guidelines, who sets them and who decides? The United Nations? Given their track record how could we or any other nation rely on them to put teeth into regulating such things? Further, I don't see a world order thing as such a great prospect, but, in an area like this there has to be multinational agreement and regulations. Yes, there is a program in place for that, but, as we have witnessed they don't have the ability either to put teeth into any agreements.

The gentleman in Iran, for each calm and sensible statement he makes, he follows it up with two radical threatening ones. If we are to take people on their words, then this situation is just waiting to explode. India and Pakistan is a good example. They have teetered on war for how long now? Not a cold war deal, but, real war able to breakout on the border with one fateful mistake.

It's certainly a great deal to consider, to ponder and to debate.

 

[editec]

If the USA goes to war with Iran, we are the dumbest people on the block.

If you think our economy is in the crapper now, wait til we see what happens to it when we're stuck to that tarbaby.

If we truly want to bring that radical Islamic government down in Iran, we ought to rachet down the saber rattling and start initiating cultural exchanges.

Rock and roll and blue jeans will topple a fundamentalist regime far faster than all the armies in the world.

Sooner, rather than later, I hope that the USA will finally discover that our culture is a far more powerful force for social good, than our military.

 

[Neubarth]

If the USA goes to war with Iran, we are the dumbest people on the block.

If you think our economy is in the crapper now, wait til we see what happens to it when we're stuck to that tarbaby.

If we truly want to bring that radical Islamic government down in Iran, we ought to rachet down the saber rattling and start initiating cultural exchanges.

Rock and roll and blue jeans will topple a fundamentalist regime far faster than all the armies in the world.

Sooner, rather than later, I hope that the USA will finally discover that our culture is a far more powerful force for social good, than our military.

In dealing with Radical Islam, it will not work. It appears that you do not know what motivates them.

They have their prophecies that they wish to make come true. Unlike Christian Prophecy where the Christian Believer is told that there is nothing that they can do to make their prophecies come true, the Islamic Radical crowd DO believe that they can make THEIR prophecies come true.

They are looking forward to the coming of the Mahdi who will rule the Earth after everybody alive has submitted to Allah. Those who do not submit will be beheaded.

(Ironically the Bible predicts that those Christians who do not bow down to the False Prophet and his mystery religion of Babylon will be beheaded for their testimony of the Word of God. So, it would appear that the Islamic Radicals can make Christian Prophecy come true.)

The Mahdi will only come into power after a period of Chaos all over the globe. The terror attacks are fully intended to bring about that chaos. The Radical Islamics know exactly what they are doing with all of their thousands of terror attacks all around the world. Iran is funding most of those terror attacks. Because of the Iranian funded terror attacks in India, India is considering a nuclear strike on Iran. Stay tuned.

 

[Neubarth]

Let's not forget that all evidence shows that Iran stopped it's nuclear weapons development in 2003. There's no reason to go to war with Iran, even if they had a nuclear weapon.

Your post belies tremendous ignorance about the assembly of simple Atomic Bombs. Anybody can make one if they have 98 pounds of enriched Uranium. Iran is now believed to have enough for two Atomic Bombs. Earlier rumors had it that in 2006 they purchased about 400 pounds of enriched Uranium through Uzbeckistan black market merchants. Supposedly it was stolen from disassembled Soviet Era warheads. Luckily for us, the Uranium was past its shelf life and needed further enrichment to be of weapons grade. Iran fully intends to smuggle four or more atomic bombs into American harbors on cargo ships. The idea is to detonate them in New York Harbor, Boston Harbor, San Diego harbor and Long Beach/LosAngeles harbor. They believe that will bring down the US of A and along with it the Western World economy. That, in their eyes will bring the chaos that will precede the coming of the Mahdi, and the Great Third Caliphate that will rule the world under the thumb of Radical Islam.

 

[Neubarth]

For those of you Christians who are frightened by the outrageous terror attacks paid for and orchestrated by the totally evil Radical Islamic regime of Iran, I can assure you that the Biblical Prophecies are supportive of those attacks. That is not in principal, but in deed.

If you read Revelation, it talks of War and more War and a killing of a substantial portion of the world's population because of the hateful nature of mankind. Revelation 20 specifies that Christ will physically return to Earth only after man has destroyed most of the Earth and an army of 200,000,000 (All of them from present day Islamic countries) is invading Israel to kill God's specially chosen people the Jews. Jesus will totally singlehandedly kill that army by himself and then set up his thousand year rule of Earth from Jerusalem. Don't take my word for it, go read Revelation 19 - 21

Many people who profess to be Christians can not accept that passage in Revelation because they have convinced themselves that Christianity is a religion that teaches peace and love. If you seriously read the Bible, you will not see that.

I do not know exactly what to believe about those passages in Revelation (figurative or not), but I do find it very interesting and tell my many Islamic friends about it. Three families have converted to Christianity after they read those passages in the Bible. Perhaps those prophecies are the best witness to the Islamic world.