So when does Russia cut off gas supplies to the Ukraine and the EU?

[Meathead]

Why would the Russians use that chip now? Putin is not a stupid man.

 

[Pheonixops]

OAO Gazprom (OGZD)’s threat to end natural gas discounts for Ukraine adds to the financial burden on the near-bankrupt government in Kiev and makes Europe’s energy supply part of the escalating crisis.

Russia’s gas-export monopoly said on March 1 it may end last year’s agreement to supply Ukraine at a cheaper rate unless it’s paid $1.55 billion owed for fuel.

It’s the first time since the overthrow of pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovych last month that Russia has directly used its position as Ukraine’s dominant energy supplier to pressure the new regime.

Vladimir Putin, who has permission from Russian lawmakers to deploy troops to Ukraine, has repeatedly used gas to strong-arm his western neighbor, cutting off supplies twice since 2006 over payment disputes.

Because Ukraine hosts a network of Soviet-era pipelines that carry more than half of Russia’s gas exports to the European Union, any disruption of supply puts the region’s energy security at risk.


Waaaaaaaaay waaaaaaaaaaaaaay more at link.

Russia Gas Threat Shows Putin Using Pipes to Press Ukraine - Bloomberg

"Gazprom shares fell as much as 17 percent to 116.79 rubles in Moscow, the most since 2008, as investors sold Russian stocks and currency in response to Putin’s actions in Ukraine. The stock traded at 119.13 rubles at 5:40 p.m. local time. "
Gazprom - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"Ukraine’s interim government led by Arseniy Yatsenyuk can little afford to meet Gazprom’s demand for back payment as it tries to negotiate a $15 billion bailout with the International Monetary Fund. Ukraine, which uses more gas than France, gets more than half its supply from Russia. "

Is this whole thing basically "Russian style" debt collecting?

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Why should he? Who is going to stop him?

Exactly. Nobody is going to stop Putin.

Oh my! Your hero is invincible!

No, not at all. Putin has ideas of restoring russia. Just scratching my head in disbelief that we have such a worthless and incompetent president to handle this spiraling situation. I'm sure that your hollow incendiary diversion makes you feel better though.

 

[RandomVariable]

I think he'll play chicken.

I think that he will too, I do think that he wants all or part of Ukraine. Whatever the name of that naval station in Crimea is Sevastopol - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, it's important to his Navy (access to the Mediterranean thru Turkey). Black Sea Fleet - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It may or may not backfire on him though. Can he afford to be cut off from the West economically and diplomatically? If so, at what cost? Notice on of the first things that were discused was Russia's status in the G8.

I think he'll stay his hand with Crimea. He's not going to let that naval base fall into the hands of the serious anti Russian government in Kiev. No way in hell.

Crimea has a vote on strengthening their autonomy coming up. And they are seriously pro Russian.

I don't think he wants to bother with the rest of the Ukraine. It doesn't benefit Russia.

Crimea though as we've been talking is a whole different story and that's why he made the move when he did.

Not pro Putin but I can understand why he did what he did.

Not one shot fired.

Not that this is any type of comparison but I don't think a shot was fired when Iraq went into Kuwait, or Germany into Poland for that matter. Those "Mission Accomplished" banners have a way for smothering the people standing under them.

 

[Avatar4321]

I think he'll play chicken.

I think that he will too, I do think that he wants all or part of Ukraine. Whatever the name of that naval station in Crimea is Sevastopol - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, it's important to his Navy (access to the Mediterranean thru Turkey). Black Sea Fleet - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It may or may not backfire on him though. Can he afford to be cut off from the West economically and diplomatically? If so, at what cost? Notice on of the first things that were discused was Russia's status in the G8.

Putin is also not the only person with power in Russia. What Putin is willing to do to keep Crimea is not necessarily what the rest of Russia is willing to do.

Um... the entire parliament unanimously supported Putins invasion....

 

[Avatar4321]

So when does Russia cut off gas supplies to the Ukraine and the EU?

Unless you want to pay $10.00 a gallon here in the U.S., you better hope it doesn't happen.

.

Crude is up $2.16 today on Wall Street. This could happen every day for the next three months or more if things escalate. That would make $10.00 a gallon gas a low ball figure.

I think the economy would collapse before that happened. And if that's the case, we have serious problems coming.

 

[Katzndogz]

That's why sanctions won't be used against Russia. The EU isn't interested in that kind of sacrifice. When is Russia going to tell us that the space station is off limits and we need to find our own way home?

 

[Avatar4321]

Why should he? Who is going to stop him?

Exactly. Nobody is going to stop Putin.

Oh my! Your hero is invincible!

How is Putin a hero to anyone simply because we know that absolutely no one is going to stop him?

 

[RandomVariable]

Why would the Russians use that chip now? Putin is not a stupid man.

Exactly. If he did use it then what? Like said before he is not going for all Ukraine. Everyone backs off and he keeps control of Crimea. Everyone would be off Russian gas so fast he probably won't see a dime of revenue from the stuff by the fall.

 

[tinydancer]

Wanted to point this out.

If there was a huge revolution in Qatar and America's only military base in the Middle East was in jeopardy. And Americans on that base could be in danger.

What would anyone in the world expect America to do?

I would expect the US to do exactly what Russia has done. Protect her citizens and her interests in Qatar.

 

[RandomVariable]

I think that he will too, I do think that he wants all or part of Ukraine. Whatever the name of that naval station in Crimea is Sevastopol - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, it's important to his Navy (access to the Mediterranean thru Turkey). Black Sea Fleet - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It may or may not backfire on him though. Can he afford to be cut off from the West economically and diplomatically? If so, at what cost? Notice on of the first things that were discused was Russia's status in the G8.

Putin is also not the only person with power in Russia. What Putin is willing to do to keep Crimea is not necessarily what the rest of Russia is willing to do.

Um... the entire parliament unanimously supported Putins invasion....

Popular support is a fickle thing.

 

[kaz]

So when does Russia cut off gas supplies to the Ukraine and the EU?

Unless you want to pay $10.00 a gallon here in the U.S., you better hope it doesn't happen.

.

So do you oppose fracking and the keystone pipeline?

 

[tinydancer]

That's why sanctions won't be used against Russia. The EU isn't interested in that kind of sacrifice. When is Russia going to tell us that the space station is off limits and we need to find our own way home?

I hadn't even thought of that scenario.

 

[Avatar4321]

That's why sanctions won't be used against Russia. The EU isn't interested in that kind of sacrifice. When is Russia going to tell us that the space station is off limits and we need to find our own way home?

I hadn't even thought of that scenario.

Nor did I.

 

[Katzndogz]

Wasn't everyone so happy to see the space shuttle grounded and put into a California museum? We don't need a space program. We have the Russian space program and can outsource transportation to them.

 

[tinydancer]

I think that he will too, I do think that he wants all or part of Ukraine. Whatever the name of that naval station in Crimea is Sevastopol - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, it's important to his Navy (access to the Mediterranean thru Turkey). Black Sea Fleet - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

It may or may not backfire on him though. Can he afford to be cut off from the West economically and diplomatically? If so, at what cost? Notice on of the first things that were discused was Russia's status in the G8.

I think he'll stay his hand with Crimea. He's not going to let that naval base fall into the hands of the serious anti Russian government in Kiev. No way in hell.

Crimea has a vote on strengthening their autonomy coming up. And they are seriously pro Russian.

I don't think he wants to bother with the rest of the Ukraine. It doesn't benefit Russia.

Crimea though as we've been talking is a whole different story and that's why he made the move when he did.

Not pro Putin but I can understand why he did what he did.

Not one shot fired.

Not that this is any type of comparison but I don't think a shot was fired when Iraq went into Kuwait, or Germany into Poland for that matter. Those "Mission Accomplished" banners have a way for smothering the people standing under them.

But you have to understand that Crimea was given to Ukraine in the mid '50s. The demographics are I think around 60% ethnic Russians. You have Chechens. Tartars. A diverse state to say the least but predominantly Russian to begin with.

And I know many people might think that because Crimea has been part of the Ukraine for 60 some years that it's a long time.....................

No, no no no no. It's like being a newbie. 60 years is not a long time over there in history.

Consequently these people are seriously pro Russian.

 

[Book of Jeremiah]

This is going to be like watching a game of "chicken" on a global scale. They turned off the taps to the Ukraine in 2006 and 2008 for non payment. The stakes are higher by far over Crimea.

The EU gets one quarter of its supply from Russia as well. Ruh roh.

The EU gets alot more than 25% of its natural gas from Russia, TD. I don't know what it is but I was told by someone living in the UK that Russia has the monopoly on the natural gas there.

 

[Book of Jeremiah]

Russian monopoly on natural gas - Europe:


Timchenko challenges Gazprom's gas export monopoly: Forbes | Reuters(Reuters) - Gennady Timchenko, co-owner of Russia's No.2 gas producer Novatek (NVTK.MM), questioned Gazprom's (GAZP.MM) monopoly on gas exports and said Novatek was lobbying for changes in the law to be able to export itself, Forbes magazine reported.

Novatek is forced to sell the gas it produces only in Russia, where prices are regulated by the government, under the provisions of a 2006 law that gives state-owned Gazprom, Russia's largest gas producer, exclusive rights to sell gas abroad.

Timochenko said Novatek and Swiss-based trading house Gunvor, which he also co-owns, may join efforts in the gas business.

"Novatek wants to be present on the European gas market, while the Europeans want to see not only Gazprom there," he told Forbes in an interview published in the latest issue of the magazine.

_________________

Novatek is not included in that 25% supply, TD. Only Gazprom. Back 5 yrs ago Russia was supplying 40% of the natural gas according to one mainstream media news source. The monopoly on gas is explained in the article. If the Russians control the natural gas in Europe they can control the people.

 

[tinydancer]

Russian monopoly on natural gas - Europe:


Timchenko challenges Gazprom's gas export monopoly: Forbes | Reuters(Reuters) - Gennady Timchenko, co-owner of Russia's No.2 gas producer Novatek (NVTK.MM), questioned Gazprom's (GAZP.MM) monopoly on gas exports and said Novatek was lobbying for changes in the law to be able to export itself, Forbes magazine reported.

Novatek is forced to sell the gas it produces only in Russia, where prices are regulated by the government, under the provisions of a 2006 law that gives state-owned Gazprom, Russia's largest gas producer, exclusive rights to sell gas abroad.

Timochenko said Novatek and Swiss-based trading house Gunvor, which he also co-owns, may join efforts in the gas business.

"Novatek wants to be present on the European gas market, while the Europeans want to see not only Gazprom there," he told Forbes in an interview published in the latest issue of the magazine.

_________________

Novatek is not included in that 25% supply, TD. Only Gazprom. Back 5 yrs ago Russian was supplying 40% of the natural gas according to one mainstream media news source. The monopoly on gas is explained in the article. If the Russians control the natural gas in Europe they can control the people.

Wow thanks for that. Again it begs the question what are we doing poking them in the eye instead of going thru diplomatic sources to resolve the situation.

 

[Decus]

Russian monopoly on natural gas - Europe:


Timchenko challenges Gazprom's gas export monopoly: Forbes | Reuters(Reuters) - Gennady Timchenko, co-owner of Russia's No.2 gas producer Novatek (NVTK.MM), questioned Gazprom's (GAZP.MM) monopoly on gas exports and said Novatek was lobbying for changes in the law to be able to export itself, Forbes magazine reported.

Novatek is forced to sell the gas it produces only in Russia, where prices are regulated by the government, under the provisions of a 2006 law that gives state-owned Gazprom, Russia's largest gas producer, exclusive rights to sell gas abroad.

Timochenko said Novatek and Swiss-based trading house Gunvor, which he also co-owns, may join efforts in the gas business.

"Novatek wants to be present on the European gas market, while the Europeans want to see not only Gazprom there," he told Forbes in an interview published in the latest issue of the magazine.

_________________

Novatek is not included in that 25% supply, TD. Only Gazprom. Back 5 yrs ago Russia was supplying 40% of the natural gas according to one mainstream media news source. The monopoly on gas is explained in the article. If the Russians control the natural gas in Europe they can control the people.

Your article seems to be about the fact the Russian sales of gas are through a monopoly - Gazprom, and not about the UK only having one source of gas.

You may be surprised to learn that the UK produces its own gas and buys from other countries what it lacks:

"In 2004, the UK became a net importer of natural gas. The latest data indicate that most of its pipeline imports in 2012 came from Norway (55 percent of total), with additional gas originating in the Netherlands (15 percent) and Belgium (3 percent). LNG imports accounted for 28 percent of the total in 2012, according to PFC Energy data."

United Kingdom - Analysis - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)

If you read the post you will see that a large percentage of the gas the UK buys comes from Norway.

Regarding Norway: "It was also the world's third largest natural gas exporter (at 99bcm), having significant gas reserves in the North Sea."

Energy in Norway - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

.