Libbies want proof that millions will die from the lockdown but won’t accept the proof that millions aren’t dying from the virus.
Fear and feelings blotting out Facts. The 4 year suspension of reality is endless.
The death count is off because
we need to test more of the dead.
That is true, just like there more cases than we are aware of, there are likely more deaths due to covid then we are aware of as well.
Antibody tests support what’s been obvious: Covid-19 is much more lethal than the flu
Results from
coronavirus antibody tests have started to trickle in, and they bolster the consensus among disease experts that the virus
is significantly more lethal than seasonal flu and has seeded the most disruptive pandemic in the past century.
“I think it is the worst pandemic since 1918,” said Cecile Viboud, an epidemiologist at the National Institutes of Health’s Fogarty International Center, alluding to the “Great Influenza” pandemic that claimed an estimated 675,000 lives in the United States.
The new serological data, which is provisional, suggests that coronavirus infections greatly outnumber confirmed covid-19 cases, potentially by a factor of 10 or more. Many people experience mild symptoms or none at all, and never get the standard diagnostic test with a swab up the nose, so they’re missed in the official covid-19 case counts.
Higher infection rates mean
lower lethality risk on average. But the corollary is that this is a very contagious disease capable of being spread by people who are asymptomatic — a challenge for communities hoping to end their shutdowns.
The crude case fatality rates, covering people who have a covid-19 diagnosis, have been about 6 percent globally as well as in the United States. But when all the serological data is compiled and analyzed, the fatality rate among people who have been infected could be less than 1 percent.
But as infectious disease experts point out, even a seemingly low rate can translate into a shockingly large death toll if the virus spreads through a major portion of the population.
New York Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo (D) said Monday that the latest antibody numbers in New York City indicate that 25 percent of the population of 8.8 million has already been infected. The city has recorded more than 12,000 confirmed covid-19 deaths, and lists another 5,000 as probable deaths. That is an infection fatality rate between 0.5 and 0.8 percent, depending on which death toll is factored in. (A spike in
all-cause deaths in recent weeks also suggests that some coronavirus-related deaths have not been captured by mortality statistics.)
“The death rate is much, much lower,” Cuomo said Monday, referring to the serology tests. He said the New York state rate appears to be 0.5 percent — which is one death per 200 infections.
That figure is still sobering to infectious disease experts. A rate of 0.5 percent “is way more than a usual flu season and I would think way more than the ’57 or 1968 [influenza] pandemic death toll, too,” Viboud said.
This is a novel, highly infectious virus, and so everyone who hasn’t had an infection is
presumably susceptible.
It is unclear whether and for how long a person who recovers from covid-19 will have immunity. Research shows that, in a completely vulnerable population that takes no precautions, each infected person will infect well more than two others on average, and some estimates put that reproduction number over three.
Epidemiologists have said somewhere between
40 to 70 percent of the population will likely become infected in the next couple of years if there is no vaccine and the public does not take aggressive measures to limit the spread of the virus.
“Do the math!” said Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist who has been studying the coronavirus since early in the outbreak.
This is obviously a highly politicized pandemic, and some critics of the nationwide shutdown have seized on this early antibody data to argue that covid-19 isn’t all that deadly.
A common refrain is that the disease is not significantly worse than the flu. In this view, the pandemic threat has been wildly exaggerated.
Kevin McCullough, a columnist for the conservative website Town Hall,
wrote a column that ran last week with the headline “Antibody Testing: Proves We’ve Been Had!”
“Nearly everything we’ve been told about models, rates of infection, deaths, and recoveries was inaccurate,” he wrote. “The death rate in New York State isn’t 7.4%, it is actually .75%.”
But the two numbers describe different things: The first is a
case fatality rate, reflecting deaths among people with confirmed diagnoses of covid-19. The second is the
infection fatality rate, extrapolated from the antibody surveys. In other words, both numbers can be correct, and useful.
“Those higher numbers of case fatality rates, they’re still true,” Viboud said. “It’s your probability of dying if you’re clinically sick with it, which is something that people may care about, too.”
Moreover
, the fatality rate of a virus, however it is defined, is not an innate feature of the pathogen. It
depends on many variables, including the age and health of the population and access to health care. Timing matters, too: In China the fatality rate was high during the initial phase of the outbreak, when hospitals were overwhelmed and doctors struggled to cope with the crisis.
There are so many numbers flying around that it is understandable that people may struggle to make sense of them. That’s become even more difficult in recent days due to serological studies that haven’t been peer-reviewed but have been presented to the public, typically with dramatic public health conclusions attached.
The
most controversial such study came out of Santa Clara County, Calif., the heart of Silicon Valley. It claimed that the true number of infections in the county in early
April may have been 50 to 85 times the official coronavirus case counts. Extrapolating from that, it gave an estimated infection fatality rate of between 0.12 and 0.2 percent.
That provided what seemed like reliable ammunition to those who believe the danger of covid-19 has been overstated. They said the numbers show this disease is not much different from seasonal flu.
A commonly cited statistic about seasonal flu is that it has a fatality rate of 0.1 percent, That, however, is a case fatality rate. The infection fatality rate for flu is perhaps only half that, Viboud said. Shaman estimated that it’s about one-quarter the case fatality rate.
Thus, even if the Santa Clara numbers are roughly accurate about the spread of the virus and its lethality, it would still be deadlier than the flu.