SHOCK: Zogby predicts Obama to win the election

[DavidS]

Zogby International

Zogby Electoral College Votes

Battleground Polls: Survey of 11 Key States Shows Obama 273, McCain 163

UTICA, New York - Zogby Interactive polling of 11 Presidential Battleground states has shown that three states have moved from undecided into the Democratic column, putting Barack Obama over the 270 Electoral College votes needed for election.


The Obama-Biden ticket's leads in Pennsylvania (21 Electoral votes), Virginia (13) and New Mexico (5) give the Democrats a projected 273 Electoral votes. Also, two states have moved from Republican to undecided. Obama's small lead in Missouri takes its 11 Electoral votes away from the Republicans, and a tie in Nevada (5) does the same there. That leaves the Republican team of John McCain and Sarah Palin with 163 Electoral votes.


Still undecided are eight states with 102 Electoral votes. Those undecided states are: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio. Obama has small leads in five of these, McCain does likewise in two and one is tied.

Electoral Vote Projection


Obama-Biden
273

McCain-Palin
163

Undecided
102


The 11 interactive online surveys included in this survey were conducted from October 9-13, 2008. The samples of likely voters ranged in size from 450 respondents in Indiana, where the margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points, to Florida, where 1,231 likely voters participated. The margin of error there is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: "It's not quite over yet, but the odds are certainly against McCain. To win, he has to take back at least one blue state, as well as win nearly all the still undecided states. So it will take a big McCain surge nationally in order to pull this off. One huge event, the financial crisis, has focused attention on the economy and turned the race in Obama's favor. In some of these states, we found a double-digit swing to Obama in less than a month. McCain may need his own outside event to turn it back."


Here are the details of the 11 states we surveyed.

States Moving from Undecided to Obama-Biden

Virginia


Obama-Biden
51.8%

McCain-Palin
44.0%

Note sure/Other
4.3%


In our Sept. 25 interactive poll, McCain led, 50.3%-43.8%. Now, Obama has a big lead (23 points) among Independents and is tied with McCain among men. Given Obama's landslide among African-Americans and the young, you have the makings of the first Democratic win in Virginia since 1964.

Pennsylvania


Obama-Biden
51.6%

McCain-Palin
40.2%

Note sure/Other
8.2%


This represents a 16-point swing from our Sept. 25 survey that had the Republicans ahead, 49.1%-44.3%. Obama now leads by six among white voters and is tied with McCain among men. Our poll also shows him getting 17% of Republicans. Add in his 16-point margin with independents, and call Pennsylvania blue.

New Mexico


Obama-Biden
51.2%

McCain-Palin
43.5%

Note sure/Other
5.3%


Obama and McCain are tied among white voters, but Obama leads two-to-one lead among Hispanics.

Moving from McCain-Palin to Undecided

Missouri


Obama-Biden
50.1%

McCain-Palin
44.4%

Note sure/Other
5.5%


This is quite a turnaround, and economic worries certainly seem to have boosted Obama, who trailed by six in our Sept. 25 interactive survey. He now leads by eight among independents, and is also ahead among all voters with annual family earnings under $100,000. Given Missouri's Republican leanings in recent Presidential leanings, we will need more confirmation before calling this one for Obama.

Nevada


Obama-Biden
47.5%

McCain-Palin
47.1%

Note sure/Other
5.4%


McCain's eight-point lead of Sept. 25 is gone. Now, it's a tie overall and among independents. Obama is doing slightly better among Democrats (91%) than McCain is with Republicans (83%.)

States Remaining Undecided

Colorado


Obama-Biden
47.5%

McCain-Palin
46.5%

Note sure/Other
6.0%


As we found on Sept. 25, it's still very tight in Colorado. Obama and McCain are close among white voters. If that holds up, Hispanics will decide the race, and that should favor Obama.

Florida


Obama-Biden
48.2%

McCain-Palin
47.1%

Note sure/Other
4.6%


Obama trailed by 10 in our Sept. 25 poll. Despite that, voters over 65, Catholics and Born-Again Christians give big margins to McCain, and are keeping him very much in contention.

Indiana


McCain-Palin
48.5%

Obama-Biden
44.3%


Note sure/Other
7.2%


McCain has the lead based on higher GOP enrollment. However, nearly 20% of voters from both parties are crossing over to support the other party's ticket. Obama leads among independents.

North Carolina


Obama-Biden
49.5%

McCain-Palin
46.1%

Note sure/Other
4.4%


Which North Carolina will prevail? McCain gets more than 60% from both whites and voters over age 65. Obama exceeds those numbers among voters under 30 and African-Americans. He also leads among independents.

New Hampshire


Obama-Biden
47.7%

McCain-Palin
42.6%

Note sure/Other
9.7%


Due to its independent streak and homogenous population, New Hampshire is always difficult to call. Obama leads among independents by 9, giving him the overall lead.

Ohio


McCain-Palin
49.5%

Obama-Biden
44.8%

Note sure/Other
5.7%


In our Sept. 25 survey, McCain led by nearly the same margin. Obama leads independents by seven, but he is losing 10% of Democrats to McCain. The potential of big minority and student turnouts keeps Ohio too close to call.

For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:

Zogby International

 

[Jon]

Gee whiz. They're quick!

 

[elvis]

Zogby International

Zogby Electoral College Votes

Battleground Polls: Survey of 11 Key States Shows Obama 273, McCain 163

UTICA, New York - Zogby Interactive polling of 11 Presidential Battleground states has shown that three states have moved from undecided into the Democratic column, putting Barack Obama over the 270 Electoral College votes needed for election.


The Obama-Biden ticket's leads in Pennsylvania (21 Electoral votes), Virginia (13) and New Mexico (5) give the Democrats a projected 273 Electoral votes. Also, two states have moved from Republican to undecided. Obama's small lead in Missouri takes its 11 Electoral votes away from the Republicans, and a tie in Nevada (5) does the same there. That leaves the Republican team of John McCain and Sarah Palin with 163 Electoral votes.


Still undecided are eight states with 102 Electoral votes. Those undecided states are: Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Ohio. Obama has small leads in five of these, McCain does likewise in two and one is tied.

Electoral Vote Projection


Obama-Biden
273

McCain-Palin
163

Undecided
102


The 11 interactive online surveys included in this survey were conducted from October 9-13, 2008. The samples of likely voters ranged in size from 450 respondents in Indiana, where the margin of error is +/- 4.7 percentage points, to Florida, where 1,231 likely voters participated. The margin of error there is +/- 2.9 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: "It's not quite over yet, but the odds are certainly against McCain. To win, he has to take back at least one blue state, as well as win nearly all the still undecided states. So it will take a big McCain surge nationally in order to pull this off. One huge event, the financial crisis, has focused attention on the economy and turned the race in Obama's favor. In some of these states, we found a double-digit swing to Obama in less than a month. McCain may need his own outside event to turn it back."


Here are the details of the 11 states we surveyed.

States Moving from Undecided to Obama-Biden

Virginia


Obama-Biden
51.8%

McCain-Palin
44.0%

Note sure/Other
4.3%


In our Sept. 25 interactive poll, McCain led, 50.3%-43.8%. Now, Obama has a big lead (23 points) among Independents and is tied with McCain among men. Given Obama's landslide among African-Americans and the young, you have the makings of the first Democratic win in Virginia since 1964.

Pennsylvania


Obama-Biden
51.6%

McCain-Palin
40.2%

Note sure/Other
8.2%


This represents a 16-point swing from our Sept. 25 survey that had the Republicans ahead, 49.1%-44.3%. Obama now leads by six among white voters and is tied with McCain among men. Our poll also shows him getting 17% of Republicans. Add in his 16-point margin with independents, and call Pennsylvania blue.

New Mexico


Obama-Biden
51.2%

McCain-Palin
43.5%

Note sure/Other
5.3%


Obama and McCain are tied among white voters, but Obama leads two-to-one lead among Hispanics.

Moving from McCain-Palin to Undecided

Missouri


Obama-Biden
50.1%

McCain-Palin
44.4%

Note sure/Other
5.5%


This is quite a turnaround, and economic worries certainly seem to have boosted Obama, who trailed by six in our Sept. 25 interactive survey. He now leads by eight among independents, and is also ahead among all voters with annual family earnings under $100,000. Given Missouri's Republican leanings in recent Presidential leanings, we will need more confirmation before calling this one for Obama.

Nevada


Obama-Biden
47.5%

McCain-Palin
47.1%

Note sure/Other
5.4%


McCain's eight-point lead of Sept. 25 is gone. Now, it's a tie overall and among independents. Obama is doing slightly better among Democrats (91%) than McCain is with Republicans (83%.)

States Remaining Undecided

Colorado


Obama-Biden
47.5%

McCain-Palin
46.5%

Note sure/Other
6.0%


As we found on Sept. 25, it's still very tight in Colorado. Obama and McCain are close among white voters. If that holds up, Hispanics will decide the race, and that should favor Obama.

Florida


Obama-Biden
48.2%

McCain-Palin
47.1%

Note sure/Other
4.6%


Obama trailed by 10 in our Sept. 25 poll. Despite that, voters over 65, Catholics and Born-Again Christians give big margins to McCain, and are keeping him very much in contention.

Indiana


McCain-Palin
48.5%

Obama-Biden
44.3%


Note sure/Other
7.2%


McCain has the lead based on higher GOP enrollment. However, nearly 20% of voters from both parties are crossing over to support the other party's ticket. Obama leads among independents.

North Carolina


Obama-Biden
49.5%

McCain-Palin
46.1%

Note sure/Other
4.4%


Which North Carolina will prevail? McCain gets more than 60% from both whites and voters over age 65. Obama exceeds those numbers among voters under 30 and African-Americans. He also leads among independents.

New Hampshire


Obama-Biden
47.7%

McCain-Palin
42.6%

Note sure/Other
9.7%


Due to its independent streak and homogenous population, New Hampshire is always difficult to call. Obama leads among independents by 9, giving him the overall lead.

Ohio


McCain-Palin
49.5%

Obama-Biden
44.8%

Note sure/Other
5.7%


In our Sept. 25 survey, McCain led by nearly the same margin. Obama leads independents by seven, but he is losing 10% of Democrats to McCain. The potential of big minority and student turnouts keeps Ohio too close to call.

For a complete methodological statement on this survey, please visit:

Zogby International

Jimmy Carter won in 1980, too. He was farther ahead then than Obama is now and..

oh wait a minute....

 

[DavidS]

Jimmy Carter won in 1980, too. He was farther ahead then than Obama is now and..

oh wait a minute....

Yes, everything changed after the debate between Reagan and Carter.

There is nothing else happening now, save an October surprise, that will change this election. No more debates.

 

[elvis]

Yes, everything changed after the debate between Reagan and Carter.

There is nothing else happening now, save an October surprise, that will change this election. No more debates.

Regardless, chickens and hatching

 

[Chris]

A woman I work with came up to me today, looked me in the eyes, and said, "I have never voted for a Democrat in my life, but I am voting for Obama because I am tired of being screwed by big corporations."

I thought, "Lady, you just became a Democrat."

 

[Jon]

A woman I work with came up to me today, looked me in the eyes, and said, "I have never voted for a Democrat in my life, but I am voting for Obama because I am tired of being screwed by big corporations."

I thought, "Lady, you just became a Democrat."

Yes, so now she's going to be screwed by the poor folk eager for more handouts.

 

[DiveCon]

Yes, so now she's going to be screwed by the poor folk eager for more handouts.

if it really happened

 

[Jon]

Of course it didn't. The only person that lies more than Obama and McCain is Mr. Chriskirk here.

 

[Chris]

Of course it didn't. The only person that lies more than Obama and McCain is Mr. Chriskirk here.

Personal attacks are all you have left.

 

[jillian]

Yes, so now she's going to be screwed by the poor folk eager for more handouts.

And, of course, it wasn't Clinton who did welfare reform when there were two repub presidents before him who didn't, eh?

There's those pesky facts again.

And if you don't like handouts, maybe you should tell the red states to stop taking more from the government than they pay into it.

 

[elvis]

And, of course, it wasn't Clinton who did welfare reform when there were two repub presidents before him who didn't, eh?

There's those pesky facts again.

And if you don't like handouts, maybe you should tell the red states to stop taking more from the government than they pay into it.

Bush sr didn't reform welfare. clinton did: with massive cuts.

 

[DiveCon]

Bush sr didn't reform welfare. clinton did: with massive cuts.

actually, no POTUS did welfare reform
it was CONGRESS