An A?...then you must realize what happens when a president and his congress hand out billions of dollars?....
Too many dollars in circulation makes dollars cheap, economy expands to absorb, some by new business (supposedly) some price inflation (starting at resource level and spreading to consumer price levels, some down the black hole to the top in the stock market/corporation/wealthy (not spending but taking back out of circulation). Governments take steps to keep money cirulating as the extra dollars do no good if going to savings, but usually not effective. Eventually money in circulation is absorbed and equalizes across the economy, inflation subsides, as normal marketplace becomes more efficient again, marketplace pressure again influence competition for the dollars in place at the new level, prices abate somewhat (but never back to original, before the dollar dump) as the ratchet effect is real, and life goes on. Pardon the optimism for someone of my age.
In this case, the biggest money drop was direct to lower earners, pandemic displaced workers, (displaced due to shut down of various enterprises across the spectrum). Idle workers loved it. In many cases rent and mortgage payments were subsidized or put on hold, enabling consumer money to flow into the consumer market instead of to the banks. At the same time, supply chain disruption was taking place due to transportation workers and hub workers off for the pandemic, causing a backlog in non-delivered shipping. Government solution was more money to get people to come back to work. Government mandated wage increases mostly averted, but now business was basically in competition with the government for lower wage scale employees who were enjoying subsidies while off work, inflating wage scale inflation to attract workers back to the system. Naturally, shortage induced consumer price inflation as cheaper dollars chased lower supply as consumer buying with government subsidized dollars and same with stock market (which continued to rise). Initial glut on the energy market, quickly leveled and as economies across the world attempted to rebound, caused shortage, inflating the resource price of key economic resource (namely oil). Allowing oil industry to reap significant higher (record profits) profits on lower production and relatively lower production costs, a situation, that segment gets used to quickly, without economic pressure to increase supply quickly in a normally competitive market. All price inflations absorbed, balanced or at least dealt with at the consumer level as higher prices passed on to consumers across to board.
Net effect in the end, what started as subsidized dollars for the good of the many at the bottom, quickly trickled up (not down), as those that control the resources and end products reap the profits. Stock markets level as extra disposable dollars absorbed and then stock prices decline. Lower end wage scale increased, but workers only see limited or no benefit due to continued higher energy prices and general inflation of consumer prices across the board, as the bulk of the dollars again go to the top. I estimate (or wild as guess) the leveling process of the inflation takes about two years and we are presently only about a quarter way through it.
What did we relearn that we should have already known?
1. World economy is like a giant clunky machine with too many parts interacting to keep it running. It is much quicker and easier to turn the machine off, than to turn it back on from close to a standing start, as the parts do not start up at equal rates and the slack in the machine at start-up will have to be absorbed with greater energy and cost until all parts get back up to speed.
2. Politicians (all politicians regardless of party) are generally only too happy to dole out money, as if it is manna from heaven, as it personally costs them nothing and everybody likes free money, though money is actually never free.
a. They only have two main tricks to control the people of the electorate, one being money as
enticement to behavior, the other being regulation as enticement or control.
3. Federal Reserve Board members being political appointees, give bad advice to politicians, supporting policy that may not be in long term advantage, though attractive in the short term and are slow to reign in or recover from their errors in judgment.
4. Monetary policy is at the discretion of the Fed, not the politician in power, so the blame for the largess of inflationary dollars is more than equally their fault. It's effects are relatively immediate, but how it is doled out is solely the blame of the politicians that love to dole it out and care not for the inefficiencies they create. It is apparent, they never even see them, except in retrospect, becoming the stuff of investigations to place blame elsewhere.
If you made it this far, congratulations. There is something in this post for everyone to love or hate. I have hesitated to place the primary blame, for in the end, we have met the enemy, and it is us.