Second-quarter GDP jumps 4.1% for best pace in nearly four years

[Thinker101]

GDP at 4.1% Great job President Trump! Second-quarter GDP up 4.1%, as expected. Second-quarter GDP jumps 4.1% for best pace in nearly four years

It’s nice, but the reality is the president, Trump in this instance, has little influence on the economy/gdp. Economies go thru natural cycles beyond the control of a president. Ironically, the economy is the one thing most people use to judge or re-elect a president, unless of course they are black. Then the economy doesn’t matter apparently.

True, although eliminating many of the Obama regulations should help immensely.

 

[AntonToo]

Numbers just released. Last quarter was 2%.
During the Obama years, GDP passed 4.1% four times.
How is it different now?

During the Obama years, GDP passed 4.1% four times.

4 times out of 32? Impressive!

Almost as impressive as 1 times out of 6

 

[AntonToo]

GDP at 4.1% Great job President Trump! Second-quarter GDP up 4.1%, as expected. Second-quarter GDP jumps 4.1% for best pace in nearly four years

It’s nice, but the reality is the president, Trump in this instance, has little influence on the economy/gdp. Economies go thru natural cycles beyond the control of a president. Ironically, the economy is the one thing most people use to judge or re-elect a president, unless of course they are black. Then the economy doesn’t matter apparently.

disagree. while i will agree the president can only do so much, they can have an effect on overall policy and set the stage and leave it up to the rest of us from there.

10+ years of less than 3%
U.S. Has Record 10th Straight Year Without 3% Growth in GDP

lol, why don't you make that point when Trump actually manages to get 3%+ year. At least it would makes sense.

 

[Penelope]

Numbers just released. Last quarter was 2%.
During the Obama years, GDP passed 4.1% four times.
How is it different now?

Try reading. " the fastest rate since 2014" . Do we need to send someone to explain it to you?

Well when you deregulate everything and give major cuts to Corps (socialism to Corps) and pass through income for non corps, this is what you get, and it will not last. On Obama's last year they still needed many skilled workers. Also Obama inherited the greatest recession since the depression of 1929. The US is headed for another and then we will have major pollution to take care of.

 

[LeeOnLido]

didnt Obama have to borrow/print up over 4 Trillion Dollars to make it look like we had a booming 1% economy for 8 years?, how much money has Trump printed up to achieve 4.2% GDP?

 

[WaitingFor2020]

"GDP fails to reach 5 percent. Another Trump fail. Where are the good old days with Barack? Boo hoo!"

Second-quarter GDP jumps 4.1% for best pace in nearly four years

Note your link says in "nearly four years".


The GDP surged in the last few months due to tariff and trade war threats, importers stocked up.

Here's the cold hard facts, which I know is always scary for you.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

I assume everyone on here was equally cheering this much 4 years ago.

What will the final numbers be, the last quarter was dropped 3 points from the initial release


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[McRocket]

Overrated number (no doubt Trumpbots will blindly believe whatever their messiah tells them).


'No surprises here: last night, President Trump predicted today's Q2 GDP print would show the U.S. economy is in "terrific" shape, said that "if [GDP] has a four in front of it, we’re happy" and called recent economic figures "unthinkable".. and he was right... if just barely.

Moments ago the BEA reported that Q2 GDP came in at 4.1%, well below whisper numbers of a 5%+ print, and just below the consensus estimate of 4.2% (if smack in the middle of the 3%-5% forecast range), but still the highest since 2014 and nearly double the revised Q1 print of 2.2%.

On a nominal dollar basis, the US economy is now above $20 trillion, doubling in size since the start of the century.

Looking at today's report, on the positive side, personal consumption rose 4.0% in 2Q after rising 0.5% prior quarter.

On the not so good side, the key driver behind the GDP surge was exports -mostly the scramble to ship soybeans to China ahead of the tariffs - which contributed over 1.06% to the bottom line, and the biggest annualized export growth since 2013.

But the big surprise is that despite expectations of a major inventory stockpiling, non-farm inventories actually subtracted -1.02% from the bottom line number, suggesting that there was less stockpiling ahead of trade war than some expected, or alternatively, it means that subsequent revisions to the Q2 GDP print will be blow outs and will approach 5% as the correct inventory growth numbers are factored in.

Some other highlights from the report:

• GDP price index rose 3% in 2Q after rising 2.0% prior quarter
• Core PCE q/q rose 2.0% in 2Q after rising 2.2% prior quarter
• Final sales to private domestic purchasers q/q rose 4.3% in 2Q after rising 2.0% prior quarter
• Nonresidential fixed investment, or spending on equipment, structures and intellectual property rose 7.3% in 2Q after rising 11.5% prior quarter

Naturally, there will be a long of high-fiving by the Trump administration today, with the president sure to boast about the GDP print for weeks to come heading into the midterms.

There is just one problem with all of this: as we explained last weekend, the bulk of GDP gains came a one-time boost to US exports. And since this is a one-time adjustments, it is merely pulling demand from the future, which means ‘payback’ in 2H - and beyond - could be significant. As a reminder, in Q4 2011, US GDP was +4.6% in 4Q11, and then averaged +1.6% for the next five quarters.

The one silver lining is that inventories were not a tailwind as so many had expected, so this will be wildcard either for the Q3 GDP print or, more likely, for the two revisions to the Q2 GDP number which we expect will balloon as more accurate inventory numbers come in.

But the biggest problem is that if indeed there will be payback for today's number, it may come as soon as the Q3 GDP print which is due... just a few days before the midterms.

So while the Trump administration will delight in today's number, the risk is that euphoria will turn to despair with just days before the midterms.'


Q2 GDP Comes In At 4.1%, Highest Since 2014 But Misses "Terrific" Expectations


This number is an aberration. It is NOT indicative of a fundamental change.

The main reason the GDP number is so high is a one time surge in exports to get ahead of the tariffs.

As ZH very rightly pointed out...this number may even go higher on revision. But the stats strongly suggest that the Q3/Q4 number could be MUCH worse.


Once again...I am neither Dem nor Rep (I despise both major parties).

 

[AntonToo]

didnt Obama have to borrow/print up over 4 Trillion Dollars to make it look like we had a booming 1% economy for 8 years?, how much money has Trump printed up to achieve 4.2% GDP?

You are clearly clueless. Obama borrowed 870 billion in Stimulus funds. Conservatives keep saying that QE by the Fed has nothing to do with Obama...when you fools are not blaming him for it.


Trump's burrowing? $1.5 TRILLION DOLLARS in lost revenues from tax-cuts.

Deficits are quickly aproaching 1 Trillion dollars - thats 1 Trillion in GOOD times, which will quickly turn to 1.5 Trillion if economy is less than that.

 

[McRocket]

BTW - including today's GDP growth number?

GDP growth under Trump so far has been 2.7%.

United States GDP Growth Rate | 1947-2018 | Data | Chart | Calendar

Big deal.


Once again...I am neither Dem nor Rep.

 

[BluesLegend]

Trump rocks the world with a 4.1% GDP good job Trump. As for you sour grapes liberals, suck it!

 

[McRocket]

"GDP fails to reach 5 percent. Another Trump fail. Where are the good old days with Barack? Boo hoo!"

Second-quarter GDP jumps 4.1% for best pace in nearly four years

Note your link says in "nearly four years".


The GDP surged in the last few months due to tariff and trade war threats, importers stocked up.

Here's the cold hard facts, which I know is always scary for you.

View attachment 207165

Actually, I assumed what you did - that inventories would be huge. But they actually were surprisingly low last 1/4. But a one time, massive shipment of soybean to China (to get ahead of the tariffs) was the number one cause for the 4.1% number.
And, with the inevitable inventory increase not yet having been noted by the BEA, this 4.1% number could grow in revision.

However, everything in the numbers points to a one-off surge strictly due to the tariffs.

The GDP growth should fall back to reality by Q3 - Q4 at the latest.

Q2 GDP Comes In At 4.1%, Highest Since 2014 But Misses "Terrific" Expectations

 

[BluesLegend]

didnt Obama have to borrow/print up over 4 Trillion Dollars to make it look like we had a booming 1% economy for 8 years?, how much money has Trump printed up to achieve 4.2% GDP?

Trump pulled off a 4.1% GDP with rising interest rates and without the Fed printing trillions of dollars. I'm calling it, Trump is the man!

 

[LeeOnLido]

didnt Obama have to borrow/print up over 4 Trillion Dollars to make it look like we had a booming 1% economy for 8 years?, how much money has Trump printed up to achieve 4.2% GDP?

Trump pulled off a 4.1% GDP with rising interest rates and without the Fed printing trillions of dollars. I'm calling it, Trump is the man!

that 14 year old Cortez chick will claim its because all Americans are working three jobs

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Trump rocks the world with a 4.1% GDP good job Trump. As for you sour grapes liberals, suck it!

Strange, I looked back at when we hit 4.9 4 years ago and there is no post about the world being rocked.

It is almost as if you are a two faced partisan hack


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[dave p]

Numbers just released. Last quarter was 2%.
During the Obama years, GDP passed 4.1% four times.
How is it different now?

Try reading. " the fastest rate since 2014" . Do we need to send someone to explain it to you?

Well when you deregulate everything and give major cuts to Corps (socialism to Corps) and pass through income for non corps, this is what you get, and it will not last. On Obama's last year they still needed many skilled workers. Also Obama inherited the greatest recession since the depression of 1929. The US is headed for another and then we will have major pollution to take care of.

Do you ever tire of being wrong? Wages are up Gdp is up. Deregulation when necessary isn't a bad thing, over regulation stagnates growth and investment. Your comment about pass through income makes absolutely no sense. Since you know where the economy is headed with such certainty, what are the lotto numbers?

 

[BluesLegend]

Trump rocks the world with a 4.1% GDP good job Trump. As for you sour grapes liberals, suck it!

Strange, I looked back at when we hit 4.9 4 years ago and there is no post about the world being rocked.

It is almost as if you are a two faced partisan hack


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^^^ speaking of sour grapes liberals. Are you mad bro that Trump pulled off a 4.1% GDP quarter? Are you butthurt that small business owners optimism is at a historic high a level Obama never came close to? Does it bother you that global CEO optimism under Trump hit 53% a level never before achieved, its never even been over 50% and Obama's best was 33%.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Numbers just released. Last quarter was 2%.
During the Obama years, GDP passed 4.1% four times.
How is it different now?

During the Obama years, GDP passed 4.1% four times.

4 times out of 32? Impressive!

Almost as impressive as 1 times out of 6

Hey, a lib who isn't totally clueless about math!!

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Numbers just released. Last quarter was 2%.
During the Obama years, GDP passed 4.1% four times.
How is it different now?

Try reading. " the fastest rate since 2014" . Do we need to send someone to explain it to you?

Well when you deregulate everything and give major cuts to Corps (socialism to Corps) and pass through income for non corps, this is what you get, and it will not last. On Obama's last year they still needed many skilled workers. Also Obama inherited the greatest recession since the depression of 1929. The US is headed for another and then we will have major pollution to take care of.

Also Obama inherited the greatest recession since the depression of 1929.

You mean the recession that ended in June 2009?

 

[WaitingFor2020]

Unfortunately wages have been going down.
The only thing keeping them as high as they are now are one time bonuses from the tax cuts for corporations and billionaires.
The speculation there is new workers are entering the market and people my age have been retiring.

So is GDP sustainable at 4.1% if wages are dropping?

How does it feel to be wrong every time you type? Wages grew 4.89% in may 0f 2018 over the same month in 2017. Hourly wages grew to a record high of $22.62 in June of 2018. If you want to do your homework, these numbers are from the SSA.gov and from tradeeconomics.

How does it feel to just pull numbers out of your ass?

Nominal Wage Tracker | Economic Policy Institute
Nominal Wage Tracker
Chart: Nominal wage growth has been far below target in the recovery; Chart: Mind the ... change in private-sector nominal average hourly earnings, 2007–2018 ...

What's really going on with wages in America - CNN Money
https://money.cnn.com/2018/06/13/news/economy/wage-growth.../index.html
Jun 13, 2018 - With unemployment near historic lows, wage growth remains stubbornly low. ... by Lydia DePillis @CNNMoney June 13, 2018: 7:53 PM ET .... hours — but then they stopped short and have been relatively stagnantever since.

For the biggest group of American workers, wages aren't just flat. They ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/.../2018/.../for-the-biggest-group-of-american-workers...
Jun 15, 2018 - Average wages for a group that includes about four-fifths of U.S. ... in May 2017 to $22.59 in May 2018, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

Rising employment overshadowed by unprecedented wage stagnation
www.oecd.org › Newsroom
Jul 4, 2018 - The OECD Employment Outlook 2018 says that the employment rate ... More worryingly, wage stagnation affects low-paid workers much more ...