Sandra Fluke may seek Henry Waxman House seat - Kyle Cheney - POLITICO.com
Sandra Fluke, who became an instant celebrity when she was denied the opportunity to testify at a hearing on Obamacare’s contraception requirements, is “strongly considering” a bid for Rep. Henry Waxman’s congressional seat, according to KPCC, a Southern California radio station.
“I’m flattered that I’m being discussed as a potential candidate,” she told the station. “A number of folks I respect very deeply have reached out today and encouraged me to run. I am strongly considering running.”
Henry Waxman (
D-CA-33 - Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Santa Monica), who rode in on the Democratic wave of 1974 (Watergate) was -until 2012 -not ever elected with under 61% of the vote in his district (CA-24, CA-29, CA-30, then CA-33). His average percentage for all twenty elections he won: 69.9%. That average was
not always from CA-33, but the same geographic area, as California grew and more districts were added. Here is what CD-33 now looks like, compared to 2003:
In 2012, the GOP didn't even field a competitor for him, but an independent candidate made a strong run for the seat, which Waxman won with "only" 54% of the vote:
Henry Waxman - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
This was after the redistricting of 2010.
However, President Obama won this district with 61% in 2012 and with 64% in 2008:
Daily Kos: Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2012 and 2008 elections
And both Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer each won this District with 83% in their respective elections in 2010:
California's 33rd congressional district - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
The Cook PVI for 2014 lists this district as
D+11.
http://cookpolitical.com/file/2013-04-47.pdf
CA-33 is a safe DEM district.
If Fluke runs and wins the primary (if there is one), then she is likely to be elected the next congresswoman from CA-33. It would take a national GOP wave of way more than
+13 in 2014 to make this seat competitive. In the 2010 Republican wave of
+6.7% nationally, Waxman still won in this district with 67%. That is how resistant this district was in 2010 to a GOP wave, but that was
before redistricting, so with the cards newly mixed and a likely GOP contender for the seat instead of a well-known independent, 2014 will be the first year to make a solid D-R comparison to 2010.
If you look at some of my other threads, I use the same kind of language for seats or states that are strong GOP, so that is not a partisan in me speaking. Those are the current numbers.
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