Russia has Freed Bakhmut.

[Winston]

Yes, Bakhmut has been freed of it's buildings, bridges, infrastructure, and residents...

@Tendar sums it up nicely.

That tweet is the best part of this thread. Bakhmut had NO STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE. None, zero, zip and the Russian military squandered countless lives taking it. Totally stupid. And my sources tell me that while Russia may control almost all of Bakhmut, Ukraine is strategically surrounding the city. Bakhumut will be Russia's Stalingrad--the place where the Russian army will DIE. And Putin is totally off his rocker, not unlike Hitler was in the end. I mean we have seen this movie before, the ending is not going to turn out will for Russia and Putin.

 

[toomuchtime_]

If Ukraine gets F-16's, Russia is fucked. Right now the Ukrainians are dropping improvised explosive devices from cheap drones, like pipe bombs and shit. If they start bombing russian forces with F-16's while ALSO dominating the skies, its game over for Russia and therefore game over for Putin. Putin dies if he loses this conflict.

I certainly hope you are right.

 

[toomuchtime_]

That tweet is the best part of this thread. Bakhmut had NO STRATEGIC IMPORTANCE. None, zero, zip and the Russian military squandered countless lives taking it. Totally stupid. And my sources tell me that while Russia may control almost all of Bakhmut, Ukraine is strategically surrounding the city. Bakhumut will be Russia's Stalingrad--the place where the Russian army will DIE. And Putin is totally off his rocker, not unlike Hitler was in the end. I mean we have seen this movie before, the ending is not going to turn out will for Russia and Putin.

Putin's stated goal is to capture and control all of the lands Russia claims it has annexed, so Bakhmut was and is a critically important goal for him, but Ukraine's goal is to rid Ukraine of all the Russians, so, while disappointing, Bakhmut is of no special importance to Ukraine.

 

[Godboy]

I certainly hope you are right.

If I am right, it isnt good for anyone. It will make Putin a much more desperate and dangerous man. Nukes from Russia would not be an incredibly surprising response.

 

[luiza]

If Ukraine gets F-16's, Russia is fucked. Right now the Ukrainians are dropping improvised explosive devices from cheap drones, like pipe bombs and shit. If they start bombing russian forces with F-16's while ALSO dominating the skies, its game over for Russia and therefore game over for Putin. Putin dies if he loses this conflict.

The kids will laugh at the silly plot of that Disney film

 

[Mushroom]

If Ukraine gets F-16's, Russia is fucked.

Not necessarily.

One thing that has to be considered is the training they will be able to get in the aircraft. Are they going to have enough time to train in it before they have to go into combat? And if not, then it would probably be better to simply give them equipment they are already familiar with.

It is not enough to just give somebody equipment, in the modern era they must have enough time and training to make effective use of it. It is all well and good to give an army some AK-47 or M-16 rifles, or even STINGER or SA-25 missiles. It is quite a different thing to actually give them equipment, be it tanks, artillery, air defense, or aircraft. It only takes 30-90 days to learn how to "use" most military equipment. But it takes on average from 1-2 years to become "proficient" with it.

That is why a highly skilled opponent with inferior equipment can defeat a lightly skilled adversary with superior equipment.

So they get the F-16, I think it would be better if instead they got the MiG-29. The UAF actually uses the Fulcrum, has pilots and instructors familiar with using it, and everything needed to train new pilots. In addition to being very familiar in how it operates.

 

[Donald H]

Terrible OP headline, Donald H. “Freed” squarely puts you in the Russian camp, which I’m not sure is really where you want to be.

Hi Tom! I'm much more able to deal with your comments now that you're not just labelling my comments as fake news! If me opposing America's war with Russia puts me as a Canadian in the Russian camp, then there's noting I can do but be there. IMO America is leading the world to nuclear war and North America won't be spared.

The Western press is not “hiding” what is happening with the gradual changing front lines. In any case this “daily spectator sport,” the cheering on or bemoaning of every advance or retreat of a few hundred feet in this demolished city and “meat grinder” is pretty childish. It misses more important developments.

You're starting to call it childish today Tom, and that has something to do with the liberation of Bakmuht in my opinion. But I get your point and can agree that there are more important developments.

Among the most important may be … the totally crazy division of Russian military forces in Ukraine into official military and private and even regional warlord units, and the vicious competition for power, resources and “prestige” between them. This seems to indicate that Putin is likely already being sidelined and can no longer effectively maintain cohesion and central discipline in the Russian state.

I think that Pergozhin's behaviour is to be expected, due to him not wanting to accept responsibility of his losses on his flanks. This complaining is a luxury that can only be permitted by a private army's commandered. Give it some thought Tom!

The Ukrainian nationalist side may be far weaker in numbers than Russia but it seems to have maintained its cohesion much better despite serious losses — in large part because of Western support, Zelensky’s effective leadership & public relations, but also because of the increased popularity of Ukrainian nationalism and anti-Russian sentiment since Putin’s Feb. 2022 invasion.

The Ukraine side is immensely powerful due to being granted an unlimited supply of American weapons.
Anti-Russian sentiment? Perhaps in some circles but Europe is balking now on support of America's war on Russia. The nuclear factor has been raised.

While for now the only tolerated criticism within Russia comes from the right, the base of groups like Wagner is not so deep or widespread as that of the military and state security organs — which themselves are increasingly distant from the beaten down and politically listless Russian population.

I'm just not so sure that the Russian population feel beaten down and listless. Ritter reports much the opposite from being on site.

The “regular” security forces themselves are internally divided too. But the very existence and tolerance for groups like Wagner, as well as Chechen warlords, shows the danger of a Russian central state breakdown is real.

Where are you getting that information? Can you expand on your theory? All news I receive is indicating Russia's success. The Western media tends to fall silent when there's nothing positive to report. Note the denial of the success against the Patriotic missile system by the Russian's Kinzhals.

Of course it is also hard to estimate the longterm durability of the Ukrainian state and military apparatus, or the likelihood of changes in mood among Ukrainians themselves should the war stalemate or should the U.S. slow its aid.

I think the Ukrainian army's contribution has become minimal now that they have suffered several hundreds of thousands of dead and hundreds of thousands of wounded. Western weapons and ammunition is keeping the Ukraine side in the fight now, as that is largely being deployed against Russian forces by mercenary US/Nato soldiers under no flag.

Despite war censorship in Ukraine and the outlawing of political parties, the closing of dissident media there, the investigations of “Russian collaborators” etc. — Ukraine seems to have forged in the last 15 months a fairly broad and strong civic and national consciousness, even among many native Russian speakers.

Russians have been opposed to having their military kill Ukrainians, but they have come to accept the necessity. While Russia offered the Ukrain everything it asked for and agreed to in March of 2022! But the truth is Tom, America and the U.K. overrode the Ukraine on the successful Minsk agreement. Now the Ukraine could be wiped off the map as a country! And the world could be plunged into nuclear war!

In the Ukrainian army and national guard forces — an essential ingredient right now of “state power” — morale seems to be holding up better than among its Russian counterpart(s), despite big losses of many or even most original core fighters. My guess is that even if they can only make minor advances in their much rumored “Spring Offensive,” they will continue to fight well, toughen themselves, and not break — so long as they have adequate weapons and ammunition.

I think that mostly all Ukrainian fighters will continue to die in the hundreds of thousands. We can at least agree on the spring offensive by the Ukraine to not ever happening. I think there is little of any importance that we 'can't' agree upon. The Ukrainians are Russians and they say that they don't surrender! They'll fight to the last man for the sake of American unopposed world domination.

Neither Russia/China or America is going to accept defeat. Everything is at stake for all parties!

.

 

[Mushroom]

Nukes from Russia would not be an incredibly surprising response.

Actually, it would. And then becomes the real issue if anybody who got the order would actually use them.

That is a step forward that can never be taken back, and has a serious risk of escalation. Russia uses a nuke, and as Poland would be immediately affected by the fallout NATO might respond in kind. Which initiates yet another nuke, etc, etc, etc.

Which is why the very concept of MAD has worked for over 70 years.

Russia is not stupid (even if some of the leadership might be). And you very well may have an "internal coup" where those ordered to initiate a launch would simply refuse, as those are political fear weapons for use in retaliation and not as an actual military strike weapon. And knowing that the response would likely be a nuke in return upon them and their families they might very well say "Nyet!".

There have been a great many studies in this over the decades. And even when studies were done on US personnel during the Cold War, they discovered that a high percentage might actually refuse initiating a nuclear first strike. But almost none would hesitate in initiating a nuclear response in retaliation for one.

 

[Donald H]

If Ukraine gets F-16's, Russia is fucked. Right now the Ukrainians are dropping improvised explosive devices from cheap drones, like pipe bombs and shit. If they start bombing russian forces with F-16's while ALSO dominating the skies, its game over for Russia and therefore game over for Putin. Putin dies if he loses this conflict.

In fact God, contrary to your silly claims, the Ukrainians are fighting with the world's 'second' best weapons and a depleted army.

Russia's weaponry is now being proven to be superior.

Yes, Putin will die if Russia loses this final war against America.

 

[Mushroom]

If me opposing America's war with Russia

That is a clear distortion of reality and pure propaganda.

That would be like saying that the Invasion of Kuwait was "America's war against Iraq", or that the invasion of Poland was ""England and France's war with Germany". Of course, in this case the US is not even fighting, so you are making an even larger fail.

 

[Donald H]

Actually, it would. And then becomes the real issue if anybody who got the order would actually use them.

That is a step forward that can never be taken back, and has a serious risk of escalation. Russia uses a nuke, and as Poland would be immediately affected by the fallout NATO might respond in kind. Which initiates yet another nuke, etc, etc, etc.

Which is why the very concept of MAD has worked for over 70 years.

Russia is not stupid (even if some of the leadership might be). And you very well may have an "internal coup" where those ordered to initiate a launch would simply refuse, as those are political fear weapons for use in retaliation and not as an actual military strike weapon. And knowing that the response would likely be a nuke in return upon them and their families they might very well say "Nyet!".

There have been a great many studies in this over the decades. And even when studies were done on US personnel during the Cold War, they discovered that a high percentage might actually refuse initiating a nuclear first strike. But almost none would hesitate in initiating a nuclear response in retaliation for one.

Putin enjoys the highest popularity of any country's leader. Thus, the Russia people are the most unlikely to say 'nyet' to Putin's resolve to stand up until the end to save mother Russia.

It doesn't go unnoticed that America is starting to feel the fear and so hopeful scenarios are now being created.

All Americans need to come together in national unity by supporting the goals of president Biden!

 

[para bellum]

So they get the F-16, I think it would be better if instead they got the MiG-29. The UAF actually uses the Fulcrum, has pilots and instructors familiar with using it, and everything needed to train new pilots. In addition to being very familiar in how it operates.

It's true, but they've already got just about every flying MiG-29 that can be scrounged up.

The training and practice is extremely important, especially going from Russian to Western avionics. The tendency when you are under pressure is to revert to your training. That can cause a pilot to become disoriented, and it's happened.

I think about the artificial horizon. Western avionics has the aircraft level and the horizon moves. Russian avionics has a stationary horizon and the aircraft symbol moves. Both instruments display a horizontal line on the HSI, but the line moves in opposite directions because the Russian instrument represents the motion of the aircraft, and the Western instrument represents the ground as it's viewed by the pilot.

Easy to deal with when you're not under stress, but in a maneuvering fight a pilot doesn't have time to think about it. If he hasn't drilled and drilled and drilled over and over, he can maneuver in the wrong direction because the response to the HSI display is automatic.

The only way to deal with that is practice and repetition. You have to unlearn the old responses, and learn the new ones and make them automatic.

 

[Mushroom]

Putin enjoys the highest popularity of any country's leader. Thus, the Russia people are the most unlikely to say 'nyet' to Putin's resolve to stand up until the end to save mother Russia.

Wait, what?

Even if Ukraine was completely victorious and threw Russia back to the border, can you see them actually invading Russia?

I can't, I don't think anybody can. And I can't see the people of Russia believing something so stupid either.

Although it is telling that you are apparently trying to make that taking over Ukraine is a requirement for Russia to survive. And that is absolute nonsense.

 

[toomuchtime_]

If I am right, it isnt good for anyone. It will make Putin a much more desperate and dangerous man. Nukes from Russia would not be an incredibly surprising response.

There are no targets in Ukraine that Russia can identify and reach that couldn't be destroyed with conventional weapons and if Putin launched a nuclear attack against NATO, Russia would be destroyed, so imo, it would be incredibly surprising for Putin to use nukes no matter how pissed off or humiliated he becomes.

 

[Donald H]

Not necessarily.

One thing that has to be considered is the training they will be able to get in the aircraft. Are they going to have enough time to train in it before they have to go into combat? And if not, then it would probably be better to simply give them equipment they are already familiar with.

It is not enough to just give somebody equipment, in the modern era they must have enough time and training to make effective use of it. It is all well and good to give an army some AK-47 or M-16 rifles, or even STINGER or SA-25 missiles. It is quite a different thing to actually give them equipment, be it tanks, artillery, air defense, or aircraft. It only takes 30-90 days to learn how to "use" most military equipment. But it takes on average from 1-2 years to become "proficient" with it.

That is why a highly skilled opponent with inferior equipment can defeat a lightly skilled adversary with superior equipment.

So they get the F-16, I think it would be better if instead they got the MiG-29. The UAF actually uses the Fulcrum, has pilots and instructors familiar with using it, and everything needed to train new pilots. In addition to being very familiar in how it operates.

Americans and Nato instructors can train Ukrainians to fight with the F-16's, as long as they haven't already been trained on Russian fighters. If they were then they can't. And in any case they can't be trained quickly enough.

You seem to know what you're talking about at long as you stay away from the pablum on the Ukraine/America winning the war.

No winners are possible, is a smart bet.

 

[Donald H]

Wait, what?

Even if Ukraine was completely victorious and threw Russia back to the border, can you see them actually invading Russia?

I can't, I don't think anybody can. And I can't see the people of Russia believing something so stupid either.

Although it is telling that you are apparently trying to make that taking over Ukraine is a requirement for Russia to survive. And that is absolute nonsense.

Russia is intent on creating a buffer zone between the enemy and it's borders. That distance is continuously being revised. Russia will attempt to take the entire Ukraine.

I don't see the war lasting that long now that America faces the prospect of being outclassed in weaponry. The Kinzhal/Patriot episode of this war was a game changer. Including for America's morale too!

America winning the war is no longer even remotely possible.

Take solace in America never consenting to being defeated!

 

[toomuchtime_]

Americans and Nato instructors can train Ukrainians to fight with the F-16's, as long as they haven't already been trained on Russian fighters. If they were then they can't. And in any case they can't be trained quickly enough.

You seem to know what you're talking about at long as you stay away from the pablum on the Ukraine/America winning the war.

No winners are possible, is a smart bet.

US Airforce estimates it would take only four months to train Ukrainian pilots on F-16's.

ahoo News has exclusively obtained an internal U.S. Air Force assessment that concludes it would take only four months to train Ukrainian pilots to operate American-made F-16 fighter jets, a far shorter time frame than what has been repeatedly cited by Pentagon officials.

Ukrainian pilots used simulators in Arizona​

The document, which was shared with a number of NATO allies who fly F-16s, contains a detailed assessment undertaken in late February and early March at Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Ariz., home to the 162nd Wing of the U.S. Air Force. Two Ukrainian airmen, one qualified on the MiG-29, the other on the Su-27, were given “no formal training” on the F-16, according to the assessment, other than a brief familiarization. They were then tested on a flight simulator, conducting “9 simulator events covering 11.5 total hours.”


The Su-27 and the MiG-29 are both Soviet-era fighter jets, which constitute the bulk of what remains of Ukraine’s air force. Both Ukrainian pilots were assessed by four experienced U.S. Air Force instructors, each of whom had clocked thousands of hours flying F-16s.

The assessment, written by Lt. Col. Jared P. White of the 162nd, concludes that the Ukrainian pilots were able to carry out a number of “relatively technical” maneuvers in their simulated environments such as landing the aircraft after losing an engine in a scenario called a “flameout.” “After a single demonstration ... both pilots were able to successfully land the aircraft from an overhead simulated flameout
(SFO) pattern. This is a relatively technical skill that must be continually practiced throughout an F-16 pilot’s career,” the document states. Both pilots were also able to “execute mock attacks based on parameters communicated while they were flying the sim.”

Reasons for concern​

Ukrainian air force pilots pose for a photo on an Su-25 ground attack jet on their base in eastern Ukraine on May 4. (Libkos/AP)
The main training issue identified in the evaluation was the Ukrainian pilots not being comfortable with the complex avionics of the F-16, which displays information in English. Language ability is elsewhere listed as a “concern,” although the assessors state there was a “noted improvement in English aptitude” over the course of two weeks for both Ukrainian pilots. Unsurprisingly, both the Su-27 and MiG-29 pilots were unfamiliar with flying U.S. standard multi-aircraft formations, having been trained on Soviet-era tactics.

Despite these drawbacks, the report concludes that “given the current skill set demonstrated by the Ukrainian Air Force pilot ... four months is a realistic training timeline.”

Exclusive: U.S. could train Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16s in 4 months

Yahoo News has exclusively obtained an internal U.S. Air Force assessment that concludes it would take only four months to train Ukrainian pilots to operate American-made F-16 fighter jets, a far shorter time frame than what has been repeatedly cited by Pentagon officials.

news.yahoo.com

 

[Mushroom]

The only way to deal with that is practice and repetition. You have to unlearn the old responses, and learn the new ones and make them automatic.

Which to me is telling in how fast they fired them off.

The most common medium range Air Defense system that Ukraine has is the Tor, which operated with 2 packs of 4 missiles. Those are an integrated system, much closer to the PAC-3 than the original PATRIOT system itself. And it can be reloaded very quickly, around 15 minutes for a full reload of 8 missiles (the crew kicks out the two expended magazines and the reloader pops in two new magazines). PATRIOT on the other hand (especially PAC-2) is a much slower reload process, closer to an hour to do a full reload of an empty launcher.

In that kind of a scenario, for PATRIOT you would have had from 2 to 4 Batteries in place. And as one was close to expending all of their ordinance, the other would have come online as the first reloaded. And as a typical Battalion has 4 Batteries, by the time the first one is ready to come back online they had 3 others to defend with. They might even have 2 operating, as 2 others were reloading or even had one launcher in each battery reloading as the others were still operating (one does not need to shut down an entire battery to do a reload).

Once again, lack of familiarity with the equipment, and likely using it as they would have their older Tor launchers. Firing off their missiles as fast as they could, thinking that within an hour they could have at least half of them operational again. Unlike the reality that after an hour only one could be brought back online (maybe two).

That is actually a deficiency that has been known about PATRIOT for decades. Of course, it was never intended to be an anti-missile system, it was an anti-aircraft system that was adapted into that role. And that was something that MEADS was intended to correct before that program was cancelled. So the PAC-3 MSE was developed instead, giving the system basically the same kind of fast multi-round reload of MEADS into the older system. Two packs of 6 missiles instead of the older 4 packs of 4 missiles each (or the even older 4 individual missiles).

Because when it was first proposed during the Kennedy Administration and tested during the Ford Administration, the only role for PATRIOT was anti-aircraft. And a Battalion with 96 missiles would be a staggering threat for almost any air offensive against the location it was defending. It is not so effective if an enemy can throw out huge numbers of much cheaper unmanned missiles and there is only a single Battery on the defensive side.

 

[Mushroom]

Russia is intent on creating a buffer zone between the enemy and it's borders.

Wait, what? When did Ukraine ever threaten to invade Russia?

I don't see the war lasting that long now that America faces the prospect of being outclassed in weaponry. The Kinzhal/Patriot episode of this war was a game changer. Including for America's morale too!

America winning the war is no longer even remotely possible.

Once again, injecting "America". The US is not fighting in this war, that is either an insanely stupid claim, or a lie.

Or just stupid propaganda aimed at non-thinking sheep.

 

[Mushroom]

ahoo News has exclusively obtained an internal U.S. Air Force assessment that concludes it would take only four months to train Ukrainian pilots to operate American-made F-16 fighter jets, a far shorter time frame than what has been repeatedly cited by Pentagon officials.

It does not take long to learn how to "operate" equipment, especially if those trained are already experienced fighter pilots. Just as it is not incredibly hard to train a tank crew how to operate a new tank.

However, being able to "operate" the equipment is nowhere near the same as being "proficient" in using it. And that is what the experts are actually talking about. I can take anybody who can drive a car and train them to use a NASCAR racer. That does not mean they will be zipping around the track like Dale Jr. I can teach almost anybody who has ever rode a bicycle how to ride a motorcycle in a day or two (even faster if they are familiar with manual transmissions). But it is going to take months before they are comfortable in doing so, and years until they are really good at it.