Response to Social Security’s Go-Broke Date

[Doc7505]

Response to Social Security’s Go-Broke Date ​

Response to Social Security's Go-Broke Date
20 June 2025
The recent analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget regarding the 2025 Medicare Trustees’ Report highlights the looming challenges with Medicare and Social Security, but it only scratches the surface of the deeper fiscal issues our country faces. To understand the full financial reality, we must go beyond trust fund “solvency” and examine the actual commitments the federal government has made—and continues to make—without fully accounting for them
The recent analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget regarding the 2025 Medicare Trustees’ Report highlights the looming challenges with Medicare and Social Security, but it only scratches the surface of the deeper fiscal issues our country faces. To understand the full financial reality, we must go beyond trust fund “solvency” and examine the actual commitments the federal government has made—and continues to make—without fully accounting for them.
As the Congressional Budget Office has noted:

“In the public debate, ‘solvency’ means keeping the trust funds from exhausting their balances and ensuring the ability of the funds to finance promised benefits. Defined that way, however, trust fund solvency is not a meaningful measure of the government’s ability to meet its future obligations.”​

In other words, solvency in this context is more of a political or legal benchmark than an actual measure of financial health. The more alarming reality is how much these programs consume of the federal budget. In 2008, spending on Social Security and Health and Human Services (including Medicare) made up 38% of the federal budget. In 2024, that share has grown to 44%, crowding out other priorities and worsening the deficit.
Despite this, Congress continues to make benefit promises without a full understanding—or accounting—of their long-term costs. For example, lawmakers recently expanded Social Security coverage to additional workers without fully assessing the impact on the already strained and largely symbolic trust funds. This is like buying a car knowing only the monthly payments, without understanding the total cost or whether you’ll be able to pay it off.
One of the clearest signs of how disconnected federal accounting is from reality lies in the federal balance sheet itself. According to the Treasury Department, only $241 billion of liabilities for Social Security and Medicare are included in official federal financial statements. This is a tiny fraction of the real financial picture: Social Security carries over $50 trillion in unfunded promises, while Medicare’s unfunded obligations exceed $60 trillion.
Why is this massive gap ignored in the financial statements? Because, as Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Social Security, explained:

“An overriding uncertainty exists under the Social Security (and all Federal Social Insurance) programs. This is the Government’s right and ability to alter potential future benefits. Until benefits become due and payable, there is no binding commitment over which a worker has control and so no liability can be recognized.”​

In plain terms, the federal government is not legally liable to pay any Social Security or Medicare benefits beyond the checks due next month. These are political promises, not binding obligations—yet millions of Americans base their retirement planning on the assumption that these promises will be honored.

Even the very concept of “trust funds” is misunderstood. The Treasury Department clarifies:​

“In the federal budget, the term ‘trust fund’ means only that the law requires a particular fund be accounted for separately, used only for a specified purpose, and designated as a trust fund. A change in law may change the future receipts and the terms under which the fund’s resources are spent.”​

This differs drastically from the private sector, where trust funds involve a fiduciary duty to manage someone else’s money for their benefit. In government, trust funds are little more than internal bookkeeping entries that Congress can change at any time.
At Truth in Accounting, we believe the public and lawmakers deserve honest, complete, and transparent accounting. That includes recognizing the full cost of Social Security and Medicare, understanding the long-term implications of policy changes, and being honest about what has been promised—and what has not.
Until we do so, we are not just engaging in poor financial management—we are undermining the American people's trust and passing unsustainable burdens onto future generations.

Commentary:
Ever notice that nothing else in the Federal Budget has a “go broke” date? Welfare doesn’t, Ukraine doesn’t, EPA doesn't, NASA doesn’t, etc.
The real "Go Broke" date is when the US dollar become worthless through hyperinflation and a new monetary system has to be created. The Weimar Republic is good example of that, except the US economy today is much bigger than Old Germany. It'll be quite a mess.

 

[Seth]

Response to Social Security’s Go-Broke Date ​

Response to Social Security's Go-Broke Date
20 June 2025
The recent analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget regarding the 2025 Medicare Trustees’ Report highlights the looming challenges with Medicare and Social Security, but it only scratches the surface of the deeper fiscal issues our country faces. To understand the full financial reality, we must go beyond trust fund “solvency” and examine the actual commitments the federal government has made—and continues to make—without fully accounting for them

The trustees’ “go-broke” date is real for the trust funds, not for the economy. Official books show roughly $23 T (75-yr horizon) in Social-Security shortfall, not $50 T. Medicare’s hole is huge but the mix (HI vs. Parts B/D) matters. Benefits aren’t a constitutional right – Congress can trim them – but historically it never lets seniors miss a rent payment. As for Weimar-level hyper-inflation? Economists rate that about as likely as the Browns winning the Super Bowl and the parade route freezing over in July.

 

[kyzr]

Response to Social Security’s Go-Broke Date ​

Response to Social Security's Go-Broke Date
20 June 2025
The recent analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget regarding the 2025 Medicare Trustees’ Report highlights the looming challenges with Medicare and Social Security, but it only scratches the surface of the deeper fiscal issues our country faces. To understand the full financial reality, we must go beyond trust fund “solvency” and examine the actual commitments the federal government has made—and continues to make—without fully accounting for them
The recent analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget regarding the 2025 Medicare Trustees’ Report highlights the looming challenges with Medicare and Social Security, but it only scratches the surface of the deeper fiscal issues our country faces. To understand the full financial reality, we must go beyond trust fund “solvency” and examine the actual commitments the federal government has made—and continues to make—without fully accounting for them.
As the Congressional Budget Office has noted:

“In the public debate, ‘solvency’ means keeping the trust funds from exhausting their balances and ensuring the ability of the funds to finance promised benefits. Defined that way, however, trust fund solvency is not a meaningful measure of the government’s ability to meet its future obligations.”​

In other words, solvency in this context is more of a political or legal benchmark than an actual measure of financial health. The more alarming reality is how much these programs consume of the federal budget. In 2008, spending on Social Security and Health and Human Services (including Medicare) made up 38% of the federal budget. In 2024, that share has grown to 44%, crowding out other priorities and worsening the deficit.
Despite this, Congress continues to make benefit promises without a full understanding—or accounting—of their long-term costs. For example, lawmakers recently expanded Social Security coverage to additional workers without fully assessing the impact on the already strained and largely symbolic trust funds. This is like buying a car knowing only the monthly payments, without understanding the total cost or whether you’ll be able to pay it off.
One of the clearest signs of how disconnected federal accounting is from reality lies in the federal balance sheet itself. According to the Treasury Department, only $241 billion of liabilities for Social Security and Medicare are included in official federal financial statements. This is a tiny fraction of the real financial picture: Social Security carries over $50 trillion in unfunded promises, while Medicare’s unfunded obligations exceed $60 trillion.
Why is this massive gap ignored in the financial statements? Because, as Steve Goss, Chief Actuary of Social Security, explained:

“An overriding uncertainty exists under the Social Security (and all Federal Social Insurance) programs. This is the Government’s right and ability to alter potential future benefits. Until benefits become due and payable, there is no binding commitment over which a worker has control and so no liability can be recognized.”​

In plain terms, the federal government is not legally liable to pay any Social Security or Medicare benefits beyond the checks due next month. These are political promises, not binding obligations—yet millions of Americans base their retirement planning on the assumption that these promises will be honored.

Even the very concept of “trust funds” is misunderstood. The Treasury Department clarifies:​

“In the federal budget, the term ‘trust fund’ means only that the law requires a particular fund be accounted for separately, used only for a specified purpose, and designated as a trust fund. A change in law may change the future receipts and the terms under which the fund’s resources are spent.”​

This differs drastically from the private sector, where trust funds involve a fiduciary duty to manage someone else’s money for their benefit. In government, trust funds are little more than internal bookkeeping entries that Congress can change at any time.
At Truth in Accounting, we believe the public and lawmakers deserve honest, complete, and transparent accounting. That includes recognizing the full cost of Social Security and Medicare, understanding the long-term implications of policy changes, and being honest about what has been promised—and what has not.
Until we do so, we are not just engaging in poor financial management—we are undermining the American people's trust and passing unsustainable burdens onto future generations.

Commentary:
Ever notice that nothing else in the Federal Budget has a “go broke” date? Welfare doesn’t, Ukraine doesn’t, EPA doesn't, NASA doesn’t, etc.
The real "Go Broke" date is when the US dollar become worthless through hyperinflation and a new monetary system has to be created. The Weimar Republic is good example of that, except the US economy today is much bigger than Old Germany. It'll be quite a mess.

1. Treasury does not fund SS. If SS is not "fixed" recipients only get what gets paid in.

2. Medicare goes bankrupt in 2033. Medicare needs to be fixed ASAP

3. Trump and the GOP need to start paying down the debt. The 2026 budget was a good start, but much more work to do to avoid the collapse of the dollar.

 

[Dekster]

The system isn't broke as long as it has a dollar, but that doesn't mean it will be able to pay out full benefits for very much longer. Fortunately I have lived my entire adult life with the expectation it would not be there when I retired and have planned accordingly.

 

[1srelluc]

Senior voters are the most reliable voters, and therefore some of the most desirable to politicians.

Hell, the .mil would be defunded first to keep SS afloat rather than have politicians face the wrath of that voting block.

That said all of us oldsters would agree with trimming back SS disability for able-bodied recipients because we have all know of people getting it that were not deserving of it.

 

[leftwinger]

Stop paying fraud numbers, dead and/or non-citizens and the funds are there. Stop phony SSDI claims and again paying older non-citizens the max. DOGE knows.

 

[TimFitz]

Stop paying fraud numbers, dead and/or non-citizens and the funds are there. Stop phony SSDI claims and again paying older non-citizens the max. DOGE knows.

Right winger alway “solve” problems with empty fact free generalizations.

 

[JWBooth]

SS has been broke, its funds existing only on a ledger, since LBJ merged the fund with the government’s general fund. This going broke nonsense is just cover for raising taxes.

 

[kyzr]

Trump promised to protect SS & Medicare. We'll see if they get "fixed" before the mid-terms.

 

[Oddball]

3. Trump and the GOP need to start paying down the debt. The 2026 budget was a good start, but much more work to do to avoid the collapse of the dollar.

The debt cannot ever be repaid...That's the real grift.

 

[JWBooth]

3. Trump and the GOP need to start paying down the debt. The 2026 budget was a good start, but much more work to do to avoid the collapse of the dollar.

Strengthening the dollar raises interest rates, the very reason for continued weakening.
The government cannot afford the interest on the current debt, Trump’s Big Bulbous Monstrosity adds to that burden.

 

[TimFitz]

No attempt will be to stabilize the long term fiscal health of either SSA or Medicare by the Trump regime.

 

[TimFitz]

SS has been broke, its funds existing only on a ledger, since LBJ merged the fund with the government’s general fund. This going broke nonsense is just cover for raising taxes.

This is not true. LBJ did not merge the SSA trust fund with the government’s general fund.

He just borrowed against it. George W Bush would do the same thing to the Highway Trust fund decades later.

 

[kyzr]

The debt cannot ever be repaid...That's the real grift.

Not true. Inflation reduces the debt every year.
The trick is not adding to the debt.
If tariffs and growth increase revenue, and the Fed reduces interest rates, and DOGE can save $190b or so, we do have a shot at reducing the $36T debt.

 

[Oddball]

Not true. Inflation reduces the debt every year.
The trick is not adding to the debt.
If tariffs and growth increase revenue, and the Fed reduces interest rates, and DOGE can save $190b or so, we do have a shot at reducing the $36T debt.

So making the money in my pocket buy less than it did last year is the key to shrinking the debt?

What.....the....actual......****?

 

[kyzr]

So making the money in my pocket buy less than it did last year is the key to shrinking the debt?...all I said was that inflation
What.....the....actual......****?

All I said was inflation reduces the debt. Hopefully by only 2% a year.

 

[Oddball]

All I said was inflation reduces the debt. Hopefully by only 2% a year.

Inflation also makes the "money" that I'm forced to use for value, buy less and less with every passing day....My currency is devalued, so a bunch of elites completely insulated from the consequences of their poor spending choices can continue making poor spending choices.

It's clear to me that you haven't thought this all the way through.

 

[Doc7505]

Right winger alway “solve” problems with empty fact free generalizations.

~~~~~~

US Reclaims An Absurd Amount Of Social Security ​

Payments To Dead People​

MSN

by Eugenia Lazaris

Doubts about Social Security have circulated for years, with claims running rampant about Social Security funding being in danger of running out to dead people receiving Social Security payments. As it turns out, at least one of those claims has turned out to be true and something is finally being done about it.
On January 15th, 2025, the U.S. Department of Treasury, the government department which oversees federal finances by collecting taxes, managing public debt, and enforcing tax and finance laws, issued a press release announcing that it had successfully prevented and recovered $31 million in Social Security payments to deceased individuals. The payments were identified as both fraudulent payments and improperly issued payments and were discovered as part of a 5-month pilot program between the Treasury Department and the Social Security Administration (SSA) working with what is known as Social Security's Full Death Master File.
~Snip~
This is the most complete and comprehensive record of its kind and was made available to the U.S. Department of Treasury as part of this pilot program as a result of the Consolidated Appropriations Act of 2021, This act granted access for a period of three years starting in December of 2023 and ending in December of 2026.
Read more:

US Reclaims An Absurd Amount Of Social Security Payments To Dead People - Money Digest

Rumors of Social Security payments being issued to dead people have circulate for years, and it turns out that there was in fact an issue.

www.moneydigest.com

Commentary and response:
So you claim it's a lie, yet MSN and other sources claim differently.
One could claim that the reason these violations and crimes have occurred is due to the Democrats in Congress insisting that investigation and changes to Social Security not occur.
This is just a small amount of the total fraud. I will not applaud a government agency for doing part of the job. 13.6 billion were paid out in fraudulent claims in 2022.
The big problem lies in the fraud we know that goes on within the Medicare, Medicaid, SNAP and other welfare Programs.
All of which Democrats protect vehemently. You have to wonder Why? Do they benefit from the scams and fraud? Follow the money.
By the way as a Democrat how many gold bars do you hide in your suit pockets hanging in your closet?

 

[kyzr]

Inflation also makes the "money" that I'm forced to use for value, buy less and less with every passing day....My currency is devalued, so a bunch of elites completely insulated from the consequences of their poor spending choices can continue making poor spending choices.
It's clear to me that you haven't thought this all the way through.

Look at the bright side, if the ******* dollar collapses because of the Debt you won't have to worry about inflation.

 

[Oddball]

Look at the bright side, if the ******* dollar collapses because of the Debt you won't have to worry about inflation.