Recently each of these eminent economists was
asked whether the unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill. Of the 44 economists surveyed, 37 responded, yielding a healthy response rate of 84 percent.
Among those who responded, 36 agreed that the stimulus bill had lowered the unemployment rate, while one disagreed. That lone disagreeing economist, Harvard’s Alberto Alesina (who was one of my thesis advisers), has been a
virulent opponent of the stimulus, although the research that he’s based this upon has come under
sustained criticism, particularly from the International Monetary Fund, which views the study as flawed.
These responses are remarkably similar to those from an earlier survey taken
in 2012; not a single economist has substantially changed views since that earlier survey.
Economists Believe the Stimulus Bill Reduced Unemployment
A follow-up question posed to the same expert panel asked whether the total benefits of the stimulus bill will end up exceeding the costs. The idea was to take account of all of the consequences, both positive and negative. On this question, there’s greater modesty, but still no raging debate.
Of the 37 respondents, 25 agreed that the benefits exceeded the costs, while 10 were uncertain. Only 2 disagreed that the stimulus was worth it.
These data paint a picture of a professional consensus, tempered by a degree of modesty that there’s much we don’t know. Indeed, the
best research into the views of economists finds that this consensus is pervasive across a range of issues. Call it the hidden consensus in economics.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/30/u...s-lifted-the-economy.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=0