But the human tide keeps rolling northward and westward, and aid agencies are preparing for it to continue through the winter, when temperatures along the migrant trail will drop below freezing. They fear the crisis may get worse. "One thing is clear, the movement is not going to die down," said Babar Baloch, the U.N. refugee agency's representative in the Balkans. "What we are seeing right now ... it's just the tip of the iceberg." While over a half million people have crossed the Mediterranean to Europe this year, more than double the figure for all of 2014, that is only a fraction of the people who are on the move. Some 4 million have fled Syria after more than four years of civil war, and 8 million have been displaced inside the country. And it's not just Syrians. It's Iraqis and Iranians, Afghans and Eritreans.
A Syrian refugee man carrying his daughter rushes to the beach as he arrives on a dinghy from the Turkish coast to the northeastern Greek island of Lesbos, Sunday, Oct. 4 , 2015. The U.N. refugee agency is reporting a noticeable drop this week in arrivals of refugees by sea into Greece - as the total figure for the year nears the 400,000 mark. Overall, the UNHCR estimates 396,500 people have entered Greece via the Mediterranean this year with seventy percent of them are from war-torn Syria.
The EU acknowledged the scale of the problem last week, even after it approved a plan to toughen border controls and provide at least 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) to help Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan care for refugees living in their countries. The first new border measures won't take effect until November, and a proposal for strengthening the EU border agency is due in December. "Recently I visited refugee camps in Turkey and Jordan and I heard only one message - we are determined to get to Europe," European Council President Donald Tusk said after the agreement was announced. "It is clear that the greatest tide of refugees and migrants is yet to come."
While the UN High Commissioner for Refugees on Friday reported a "noticeable drop" in migrants entering Greece by sea - as weather conditions deteriorated this week - agency spokesman Adrian Edwards said "any improvement in the weather is likely to bring another surge in arrivals." About 1,500 people arrived in Greece on Thursday, down from 5,000 a day in recent weeks, UNHCR said. The EU was spurred to act after photos of Aylan lying face down on a Turkish beach were published around the world, triggering outrage over the suffering of migrants fleeing war and poverty. Aylan drowned, along with his mother and brother, when their boat capsized on the journey from Turkey to the Greek island of Kos.
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