RED ALERT - Tornadoes in NYC Sunday and Tuesday

[DavidS]

[ame]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcVe2k4GpKg&feature=related[/ame]

Upton:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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GENERALLY DRY BUT COOL ON SUNDAY. UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND IN THE
FORECAST FROM HERE ON OUT. THE BACK DOOR FRONT STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA SUNDAY...AND BECOMES AN AVENUE FOR A POTENT SHORTWAVE WHICH
MOVES IN MONDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY LOOK TO RUN SOME 15 DEG COOLER
THAN SATURDAY.

THE FLOW VEERS TO EASTERLY...THEN SOUTHEAST WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE SYSTEM MONDAY.

THE GFS/EC/GGEM ARE SIMILAR IN INTENSITY AND THE DYNAMICAL SETUP
OF THIS COMPLEX SYSTEM...BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING. THE TREND
IN THESE MODELS HAS BEEN TO SLOW THE ONSET OF PRECIP UNTIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH THE GGEM THE SLOWEST. BASED ON THIS
CONSENSUS...POPS WERE SLIGHTLY SCALED BACK ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND
INCREASED TO LIKELY ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WHILE IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET INTO SPECIFICS...THERE DOES APPEAR TO
BE AN EXCELLENT SETUP FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH DUAL
JET COUPLET ALOFT...AND LOW LEVEL JET FORCING JUST ABOVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER.

THE REGION LOOKS TO GET SOLIDLY INTO THE WARM SECTOR
TUESDAY...WHICH IMPLIES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
AGAIN...TO EARLY TO INCLUDE IN OUTLOOKS BUT WILL BE WATCHING THE
NEXT FEW RUNS VERY CLOSELY.

COLD FRONT EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY
BUILDING IN BY WED EVENING.
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&&

Ron-NJ