- Sep 15, 2012
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But not the four that mattered. They went 0-4.There is nothing accurate about the polls....there wasn't in 2016 and there isn't today...until the pollsters realize that 26% of conservatives didn't fall off the face of the earth and begin to sample select fairly they will stay wrong......If the polls were honest Trump would be 14 points ahead....last week Biden was 12 ahead now they say he is 4 points ahead....in less than a week Biden dropped 8 points?....just wait until November and shove the polls....Real Clear Politics Average of the polls: Trump/Clinton2016 vs. Trump/Biden2020
In the Real Clear Politics Average of the Polls, Clinton trailed Trump at two different points, May 22, 2016 to May 25, 2016 by 0.2%, and July 29, 2016 to July 30, 2016 by 1.2%.
By contrast, Joe Biden has NEVER trailed Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of the polls. Joe Biden has been ahead of Trump every day in the Average of the polls. Joe Biden's weakest margin over Trump was January 13, 2020 to January 18, 2020 when BIDEN led Trump by 4.0%, and January 23, 2020 to January 25, 2020 when BIDEN led Trump by 4.0%.
As of today, BIDEN leads Trump in the Real Clear Politics average of the polls for August 19, 2020 by 7.8%.
Back on August 19, 2016, Hillary Clinton led Trump by 5.5%.
What this tells us is that BIDEN is doing significantly better than Clinton against Trump when it comes to national polling.
Clinton was ahead of Trump in the RCP average of national polls on election day by 3.1% and ended up winning the national popular vote by 2.1%
It should be noted that no sitting President has ever been re-elected without winning the popular vote either by a plurality or a majority.
That's individual polls. YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE AVERAGE OF THE POLLING DATA TO GET A MORE ACCURATE AND CONSISTENT VIEW.
In the average of the polling data, BIDEN was ahead by 7.5% on August 12, 2019. Today in the Average of the polls, BIDEN is ahead by 7.8%. Understand?
The polls accurately predicted the winner in 46 out 50 states in the 2016 election. That is a 92% accuracy rate.
Wrong, one of those states was Nevada. Trump was predicted win Nevada by 0.8% points, but ended up losing to Hillary Clinton.
The polls correctly predicted the the race in PENNSYLVANIA would be close and essentially was a toss up within the Margin of Error. Hillary was only had a 1.9% lead, well within the margin of error.
Michigan polls only showed Hillary with a lead of 3.4%, ALMOST within the margin of error, so sort of close.
The only state where polling was WAY OFF was Wisconsin, where Hillary Clinton was predicted to win by 6.5% and lost by 0.7%
All in all, the polling was very accurate. It predicted a close race in the national popular vote and in the individual states, and that is essentially what happened.