Polls, polls, polls, polls

[Old Rocks]

On the floor of the steel mill where I work, Trump is turning off more and more of the people there. The type of violence, and careless statements about the use of nukes does not set well even with many that are conservative. I do not see Trump being competative at all in the General.

 

[Toro]

He's going to get crushed.

And Trump supporters will blame everyone except Trump.

 

[Toro]

"A new CNN poll released Thursday, taken before the spat with rival Ted Cruz over his wife, found that 73 percent of registered female voters in the United States had an unfavorable view of Trump. That’s in line with a Reuters poll from last week that found more than half of American women hold a “very unfavorable” view of the billionaire.

“That gives him a huge number of voters he has to make up from somewhere,” said American University political science professor Karen O’Connor. “And I don’t know where they will come from.”

Opposition to Trump among women also extends to the GOP. A recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll found that 47 percent of Republican women could not see themselves supporting Trump, a number significantly higher than for any other GOP candidate."​

Trump faces daunting gender gap

 

[Redfish]

Polls are bullshit, they are designed to influence public opinion, not to report on it.

They "poll" around 1000 people out of 330,000,000 and then claim that the results accurately report what the 330,000,000 are thinking. Come on people, take a stat 101 class, this is statistical bullshit.

Yeah, I know that they claim that within the 1000 that every demographic in the USA is proportionally represented. Does anyone really believe that? are there only 1000 demographics in the USA? How many in the 1000 represent the views of left handed jews who live in subsidized housing? or mixed race Hispanic/whites who have 4 kids in college?

Its Bullshit.

 

[jillian]

Check his results among WORKING CLASS WHITE PEOPLE, who largely stayed home in 2012. Largest constituency of all, don't you know?

you can't win an election only with white working class men.

but good luck with that.

 

[Kosh]

He's going to get crushed.

And Trump supporters will blame everyone except Trump.

You mean like you far left drones do with Obama?

 

[jillian]

A recent Washington Post-Univision poll of Hispanic voters showed Trump currently doing worse than Romney, trailing Clinton in a hypothetical general election by 73 to 16 percent.

Maybe this says that Hispanic voters care more about keeping the border open to illegal immigration than they do about government corruption?

you're funny.

no one is going to vote for someone who says disgusting things about their people.

and most people don't vote for bigots.

 

[Redfish]

He's going to get crushed.

And Trump supporters will blame everyone except Trump.

but he keeps winning

 

[Redfish]

A recent Washington Post-Univision poll of Hispanic voters showed Trump currently doing worse than Romney, trailing Clinton in a hypothetical general election by 73 to 16 percent.

Maybe this says that Hispanic voters care more about keeping the border open to illegal immigration than they do about government corruption?

you're funny.

no one is going to vote for someone who says disgusting things about their people.

and most people don't vote for bigots.

did you vote for Obama? he is the most bigoted person ever to hold the office

 

[Redfish]

Check his results among WORKING CLASS WHITE PEOPLE, who largely stayed home in 2012. Largest constituency of all, don't you know?

you can't win an election only with white working class men.

but good luck with that.

Is Ben Carson a white working class man? How about Alan West? Do those two have any black supporters? Your racial bias is noted----------------and ignored.

 

[Toro]

New poll in Florida. Hillary leads Trump 49-36. He leads amongst women 55-33, and amongst Hispanics 59-16. And Florida's Hispanics are the most Republican in the nation.

http://static.politico.com/00/fd/3b66ba454039b21f6797f039096e/april28-lge-600-final-slides.pdf

 

[Toro]

Half of voters in the Indiana Republican primary who didn’t vote for Trump told exit polls they wouldn’t support him in November. Asked to pick a word to express their feelings about Trump and his candidacy, 27% used “appalled,” nearly matching the 26% who said they were “excited.”​

Trump: The Candidate of Republican Disunity

 

[Correll]

Half of voters in the Indiana Republican primary who didn’t vote for Trump told exit polls they wouldn’t support him in November. Asked to pick a word to express their feelings about Trump and his candidacy, 27% used “appalled,” nearly matching the 26% who said they were “excited.”​

Trump: The Candidate of Republican Disunity

So, knock off the overblown negativity about our Nominee and get with the program.

 

[Toro]

Neil Newhouse, a Republican polling expert who worked for Mr. Romney in 2012, said suburban, married women are “definitely up for grabs in this election” and predicted that Mr. Trump would have a much harder time winning them than Mr. Romney did.

“These are not voters who want to vote for Hillary Clinton,” he said. “They generally don’t like her. They don’t trust her. They think she’s too much a politician. But right now Donald Trump has a long ways to go to make the sale with these voters.”

The April Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that 40% of suburban women had a positive view of Mrs. Clinton, and 50% had a negative view. But that is much better than Mr. Trump, who had 21% positive and 67% negative.

Mr. Newhouse added that once a swing or Republican woman decides to vote for Mrs. Clinton, it would be “really hard to win her back.” Mrs. Clinton, he said, is “starting on our 20-yard-line.”​

Hillary Clinton Aims for GOP Women

 

[Toro]

In one poll, 40% of Republican moderates won't vote for Trump.

Moderates stand out starkly among the groups that make up the Republican base, for two reasons: They are disproportionately college graduates in a white, working-class party, and they are socially liberal. They have been alienated from a party that won’t accept the revolution that has occurred in American social and sexual mores and move on.

Because no candidate this cycle spoke to their issues and grievances, these voters can seem invisible. But according to polling we conducted at Democracy Corps in February, moderates make up a stunning 31 percent of the GOP base. Commentators on the ongoing GOP train wreck pay a lot of attention to the tea party, white working-class voters and rural evangelical Christians, but how much have you heard about the alienation of the moderate third of the party? ...

That is why GOP moderates are about to abandon their party’s nominee in large numbers, helping to elect Clinton. Our polling found that just 60 percent of GOP moderates said they would vote for Trump in a matchup with Clinton. Only 10 percent were ready to vote for Clinton, but fully 30 percent said they would vote for some other person, wouldn’t vote or weren’t sure what to do. Only 6 percent of Republicans voted for Barack Obama in 2012.​

Republicans, beware: Moderates could help elect Clinton

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Check his results among WORKING CLASS WHITE PEOPLE, who largely stayed home in 2012. Largest constituency of all, don't you know?

lol

Unfortunately for Trump working-class white people aren’t the only voters allowed to vote.

 

[Toro]

No modern candidate has entered the fray at this point of the race with deeper negatives than either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. And if history is any guide, their room for improvement is scant, especially because of their nearly 100% name recognition.

“These candidates are so well known,” said veteran political observer Stuart Rothenberg, “it’s going to be difficult to change” their images.

Let’s look first at the negatives. In the most recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll, Mrs. Clinton was deeply under water in her favorability rating, with those holding a negative view of her swamping those who held a positive view by 24 percentage points. It was even worse for Mr. Trump, who came in 41 points under water. ...

Past elections suggest both candidates could make their best gains among fellow partisans, a warming force that is already turning up in some polls when it comes to Mr. Trump’s favorables among Republicans.

In the last WSJ/NBC News poll, Mr. Trump was dead even in his positives and negatives among Republicans, while Mrs. Clinton was up among Democrats by 43 percentage points.

Since 1992, every candidate who ended up winning the White House did so with a favorable rating of at least 80 points among his own party. ...​

Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump Face Hurdle Not Seen in Modern History

 

[Toro]

Clinton has beaten Sanders in almost every race amongst self-described Democrats, but has lost almost every race amongst independents.

The Hidden Importance Of The Sanders Voter

However, most independent Sanders' supporters are ideologically to the left of Clinton. Most said they won't vote for Trump but only a bit more than half said they'd vote for Clinton.

 

[Toro]

Reagan v Carter

Debunking A Myth: Reagan Was Leading Carter Long Before That Final October Debate

 

[Preacher]

Reagan v Carter

Debunking A Myth: Reagan Was Leading Carter Long Before That Final October Debate

Depends on the poll