Polls Can Be Unreliable

[Viktor]

What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling - Pew Research Center Methods

http://www.dklevine.com/archive/refs4786969000000001528.pdf


Charney Research » The Top 10 Ways to Get Misleading Poll Results

How to spot misleading poll figures - Full Fact

Misleading polls distort reality, show failed elite media mentality in US - Global Times

Why Polls Were Mostly Wrong

The polltakers have all sorts of tricks to fool us.

 

[Esdraelon]

The polltakers have all sorts of tricks to fool us.

2016 is proof positive that they can even fool THEMSELVES. Those people truly believed their own lies and predictions. That's part of the reason they lost their minds with hate against an outsider who dared to beat them.

 

[MaryL]

Really? Bears shit in the woods.

 

[toobfreak]

I just want to know which poll predicted that a two time flat out loser not even scraping 2% of the vote, running with another mega-loser who had to drop out in 12/19 because no one would even donate to her campaign both running on hardly any message or rallies would miraculously somehow set new standards on most votes ever gotten? Against a standing president with unprecedented popularity and jobs and economy?

That is the pollster I want to ask now, seeing that Joe only got less than HALF approval when first in office has been steadily losing ground EVER SINCE, now down in the 30s and 20s approval, what they see ahead for the DNC a year from now!

 

[White 6]

I just want to know which poll predicted that a two time flat out loser not even scraping 2% of the vote, running with another mega-loser who had to drop out in 12/19 because no one would even donate to her campaign both running on hardly any message or rallies would miraculously somehow set new standards on most votes ever gotten? Against a standing president with unprecedented popularity and jobs and economy?

That is the pollster I want to ask now, seeing that Joe only got less than HALF approval when first in office has been steadily losing ground EVER SINCE, now down in the 30s and 20s approval, what they see ahead for the DNC a year from now!

That would be the poll of voter in the United States of America, held on Nov. 3, 2020. The private polling of private pollsters, with questions created by grad students, worded to manipulate, and knowing many would refuse to participate, and did not participate (for one reason or another, often political) in those polls, ceased to matter.

 

[Winco]

any message or rallies would miraculously somehow set new standards on most votes gotten?

I understand you HATE the results.

But the population is growing. FACT.
More Old people that were supposed to die, LIVED again for another election.
Approximately 4,043,978 people turn 18 each year.
There was a MASSIVE movement to get eligible voters to register and actually vote.

Deaths and Mortality​

Data are for the U.S.

• Number of deaths: 2,854,838

How many people turn 18 each year in US? - Answers

Approximately 4,043,978 people turn 18 each year. Many of these teens are in the US. In contrast, 7,100 people in the US turn 65 each year.

www.answers.com

FastStats

FastStats is an official application from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) and puts access to topic-specific statistics at your fingertips.

www.cdc.gov

Number of registered voters U.S. 2022 | Statista

In 2022, there were 161.42 million people registered to vote in the United States.

www.statista.com

 

[Winco]

I just want to know which poll predicted

Polls are often off, by a standard deviation of (IDK, without doing the research)
So polls are misleading.

What is NOT misleading is the following:
Statistical Data on:

1). Number of people that died and voted from one year to another.
2). Number of eligible voters registered to vote between 2016 & 2020 Election.
3). Number of eligible voters in 2016 that didn't vote versus those that did in 2020

Which mathematical FACT listed above proves you CORRECT in defending your claim?

 

[toobfreak]

That would be the poll of voter in the United States of America, held on Nov. 3, 2020.

There was no poll on Nov. 3 2020. That was an election, and it was the most bizarre, atypical, irregular, abnormal, modified, disputed election in history, still being investigated, not just for its many illegalities, not just because it flew in the face doing everything election experts for 20 years have warned us were the weakest aspects of our system most prone to corruption and cheating, not just because Time Magazine did a schematical news piece a year ago reporting all of the people and organizations which participated in the steal and how they did it, braggingly, but because on the sheer face value of it, nothing about the election made sense in how it bucked every known trend in elections and statistics, mathematically impossible, losing really, everywhere EXCEPT the six states he absolutely needed while other Dems lost, with Biddum's entire vote depending, coincidentally, with the very untraceable paper ballots that the democrats spent over a year before Covid was even heard of fighting in courts to change laws to allow.

 

[White 6]

There was no poll on Nov. 3 2020. That was an election, and it was the most bizarre, atypical, irregular, abnormal, modified, disputed election in history, still being investigated, not just for its many illegalities, not just because it flew in the face doing everything election experts for 20 years have warned us were the weakest aspects of our system most prone to corruption and cheating, not just because Time Magazine did a schematical news piece a year ago reporting all of the people and organizations which participated in the steal and how they did it, braggingly, but because on the sheer face value of it, nothing about the election made sense in how it bucked every known trend in elections and statistics, mathematically impossible, losing really, everywhere EXCEPT the six states he absolutely needed while other Dems lost, with Biddum's entire vote depending, coincidentally, with the very untraceable paper ballots that the democrats spent over a year before Covid was even heard of fighting in courts to change laws to allow.

Don't trust the "experts" to exclusion. Creating a non-biased poll is difficult. Getting people to take it in the correct sampling size with a truly unbiased make-up and not lie on it, may be even more difficult. The election poll on election day is the only one that counts.

 

[Colin norris]

What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling - Pew Research Center Methods

http://www.dklevine.com/archive/refs4786969000000001528.pdf


Charney Research » The Top 10 Ways to Get Misleading Poll Results

How to spot misleading poll figures - Full Fact

Misleading polls distort reality, show failed elite media mentality in US - Global Times

Why Polls Were Mostly Wrong

The polltakers have all sorts of tricks to fool us.

The polls are done with sincerity and as much accuracy as the polled allow them.
You're problem is you thought trump was impossible to beat and cunning old Joe showed that idiot how to campaign.

Clearly people did not show their voting intentions and you forgot about your cherished silent majority who obviously changed their minds. Even with the extra tu ten out in both sides, Joe still won. Can't you see he was not wanted except by dumb arse ignorant red neck republicans?
Are you contemplating charging them with treason like you wanted for Cheney and pence?

 

[candycorn]

What 2020’s Election Poll Errors Tell Us About the Accuracy of Issue Polling - Pew Research Center Methods

http://www.dklevine.com/archive/refs4786969000000001528.pdf


Charney Research » The Top 10 Ways to Get Misleading Poll Results

How to spot misleading poll figures - Full Fact

Misleading polls distort reality, show failed elite media mentality in US - Global Times

Why Polls Were Mostly Wrong

The polltakers have all sorts of tricks to fool us.

306>232...

Biden is YOUR president....no fooling.

 

[candycorn]

There was no poll on Nov. 3 2020. That was an election, and it was the most bizarre, atypical, irregular, abnormal, modified, disputed election in history, still being investigated, not just for its many illegalities, not just because it flew in the face doing everything election experts for 20 years have warned us were the weakest aspects of our system most prone to corruption and cheating, not just because Time Magazine did a schematical news piece a year ago reporting all of the people and organizations which participated in the steal and how they did it, braggingly, but because on the sheer face value of it, nothing about the election made sense in how it bucked every known trend in elections and statistics, mathematically impossible, losing really, everywhere EXCEPT the six states he absolutely needed while other Dems lost, with Biddum's entire vote depending, coincidentally, with the very untraceable paper ballots that the democrats spent over a year before Covid was even heard of fighting in courts to change laws to allow.

There were about 8,000 losers on election night. Only one orange blob is screaming fraud.

YOUR
BLOB
LOST

 

[Winco]

nothing about the election made sense in how it bucked every known trend in elections and statistics

And even IF you could prove this true (which trump and his cult haven't had ANY success, well, because of trump lies), this wouldn't PROVE that more votes for one party were cast. That is just your CT.

 

[toobfreak]

Don't trust the "experts" to exclusion. Creating a non-biased poll is difficult. Getting people to take it in the correct sampling size with a truly unbiased make-up and not lie on it, may be even more difficult. The election poll on election day is the only one that counts.

The only poll I care about is the one where 3 out of every 4 people asked said please Joe, do not run again.

The guy has only been in office 10 months!

 

[EyeBRollin]

The polls were accurate in 2016, 2018, and 2020.

 

[White 6]

The only poll I care about is the one where 3 out of every 4 people asked said please Joe, do not run again.

The guy has only been in office 10 months!

That's right. Only been there 10 months, out of 48, so the polls mean little about the next election, and don't take into account good and growing employment, increases in GDP, raises in middle class wages, the returns I'm getting on investments, and other things. If it weren't for Joe's total f#ckup handling of the boarder (a big mistake made very early, and not been able to correct since) I would actually be a pretty happy camper, overall.

 

[toobfreak]

That's right. Only been there 10 months, out of 48

A presumed 48. Name for me a president so popular who has fallen quicker sooner in the polls after great expectations?

, so the polls mean little about the next election,

I'd say they point to a total trouncing of the democrats.

If it weren't for Joe's total f#ckup handling of the boarder (a big mistake made very early, and not been able to correct since) I would actually be a pretty happy camper, overall.

You seem to forget quickly about the Afghan pullout debacle.

 

[White 6]

A presumed 48. Name for me a president so popular who has fallen quicker sooner in the polls after great expectations?


I'd say they point to a total trouncing of the democrats.


You seem to forget quickly about the Afghan pullout debacle.

Show me where public opinion polls mattered before a few months of re-election time. They don't. I have read the constitution from start to finish multiple times. It ain't there.

 

[Winco]

You seem to forget quickly about the Afghan pullout debacle.

Is that the same 'pullout' that trump touted? But Failed at?
I think it is.

Overall, Let's do a NEW poll on the affects of the 'pullout'

Do you have a Family member Thankful to be Home?

 

[Pellinore]

Trump is a paradigm-breaker, and that translates to polls. In the 2020 election, I think I figured that if I mentally swung every poll toward Trump by about six points, they were a lot closer to accurate.