Figures. I ask you to debate the specifics, you not surprisingly respond with more cut and paste (or copy and paste, very clever, score a point for yourself) info.
This business of quoting long posts makes it difficult to navigate so I've added my responses to your specific questions
in red for clarity.
My move? Do I have to manufacture numerous paragraphs that say nothing like you? You want to dismiss the facts I provided because I copied and pasted them (I did not cut and paste them, because the words are still where I found them). Why don't you dismiss the facts I copied and pasted?
Because they are not your "facts". And because your "facts" are only "facts" if you accept them as "facts". You choose to accept them. Why? Well, it will either be because they suit your agenda, or because you don't understand epidemiology and therefore have no choice but to accept them. What you're doing is posting someone else's opinion, saying you agree with it, but you basically have no idea why. Why would I bother attempting to disprove something that you don't understand in the first place?
One other point (and here's something for you to leap all over to prove your case). I'm not saying that they are false. I'm saying that in a number of cases the point is not proven sufficiently for it to form a sound basis for legislation. I have a number of areas of concern, a point I was willing to discuss by taking the very first point you pasted - the issue of ETS being a Class A carcinogen. You don't want to engage in that debate. You don't even want to hear the reasons. Fair enough. If you're happy living like that it's up to you, but please don't challenge me to be better informed
First of all, I am not a scientist, and I don't claim to be. Are YOU a scientist tb?
No.
Let's boil it down to a few 'concepts'.
Sigh. No, let's not. It's pointless. You either discuss the evidence, or you discuss hyperbole.
Let's talk about a paramount concept ...CREDIBILITY.
YOU said: 'I do not dispute that the tobacco companies will try to protect their industry. Nor do I dispute that they misled about the affects of primary smoking'
So tell me tb, WHAT makes you believe the tobacco companies ceased trying to protect their industry? And WHAT makes you believe tobacco companies would not misled about the affects of secondary smoke? Is it fairies tb?
You're making an assumption that because I don't damn everything the tobacco companies say that I must support them. An assumption that if I don't disagree with them then I must agree with them. I don't believe that they ceased trying to protect their industry. I do believe they might try to mislead. I have a number of suspicions about the tobacco industry, which is why I will never take what they say at face value. I indicated in my earlier post that they would probably try to propose different interpretation findings. You must have missed it. Or dismissed it.
Are the scientists who were right about the affects of primary smoking the SAME scientists who say that secondary smoke is hazardous to human health? Are the scientists working for the tobacco industry who were WRONG and misled about the affects of primary smoking the SAME scientists who dispute the affects of secondary smoke?
Probably not. You're talking about a period of 30-40 years. I'd imagine the scientists have changed. The science is most certainly different. However if the point you are driving at is did the tobacco companies once mislead people and might they do it again, the answer in theory is yes. I think I've already said that's why I don't take what the tobacco companies say at face value.
There is a saying: 'fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me'
There is also a famous quote from Albert Camus: 'It is the job of thinking people not to be on the side of the executioners'
OK. Thanks for sharing. The Fool me once saying I already knew. Actually, same with the Camus quote since you'd already posted it earlier. Not sure either add anything to the discussion but that's OK I'm getting used to it.
Lastly, here are your science experiments for the day:
(Really?
Science experiments?) Find a smoker and have him light up a cigarette. Now, you admit that there is clear evidence between primary smoke and Tobacco Related Disease.
1) Is ALL the smoke that fills the room from that cigarette secondary smoke?
OK, I'll play. And since you talked about "science experiments", let's be even more specific and assume that this is under laboratory conditions and that no other source can contaminate the findings and that the cigarette was lit with a butane lighter rather than a match, just so we have the exact conditions known. In that case, some will be exhaled smoke, some will be filtered smoke that is uninhaled, but arguably the majority will be sidestream smoke. All three can be considered ETS. In short, yes.
2) Buy a bottle of Windex and a roll of paper towels and wash the windows in that smokers house and car. Then analyze the heavy residues you find on the paper towel and tell me which ones are beneficial to human health?
But that's not scientific, and in fact it ignores additional elements that could impact health that are not even found on the windows. Plus, windex may be a confounder. Surely a much better idea to simply capture some of the residue directly onto a sterile slide and analyze that. If that happens, then I think it would be unlikely that any of the reside will be beneficial to health and the experiment will be uncontaminated and the findings arguably reliable. All of which proves very little in a genuine scientific sense unless you are saying parts of the human body are made of glass. I understand the point you are driving at, but it is worthless in any real sense.
Finally, you talk about 'methodology'... And here is where the methodology of scientists working for major polluters trying to protect their industry have adopted the SAME methodology used by scientists working for the tobacco industry.
Ignoring all this. I've already told you I'm not going to get into a conversation about climate. It has nothing to do with the issue of Environmental Tobacco Smoke, and I don't consider myself anything like as well informed about the subject.
It is NOT rocket science. It is called creating doubt, using obfuscation and launching a PR campaign.
It was clearly spelled out in a memo from the American Petroleum Institute in 1988:
Memo
Joe Walker
To: Global Climate Science Team
Cc: Michelle Ross; Susan Moya
Subject: Draft Global Climate Science Communications plan
Action Plan
Victory Will Be Achieved When
Average citizens "understand" (recognize) uncertainties in climate science; recognition of uncertainties becomes part of the "conventional wisdom"
Media "understands" (recognizes) uncertainties in climate science
Media coverage reflects balance on climate science and recognition of the validity of viewpoints that challenge the current "conventional wisdom"
Current Reality
Unless "climate change" becomes a non-issue, meaning that the Kyoto proposal is defeated and there are no further initiatives to thwart the threat of climate change, there may be no moment when we can declare victory for our efforts. It will be necessary to establish measurements for the science effort to track progress toward achieving the goal and strategic success.
Strategies and Tactics
Strategy II (National Climate Science Data Center).
Identify, recruit and train a team of five independent scientists to participate in media outreach. These will be individuals who do not have a long history of visibility and/or participation in the climate change debate. Rather, this team will consist of new faces who will add their voices to those recognized scientists who already are vocal.
Develop a global climate science information kit for media including peer-reviewed papers that undercut the "conventional wisdom"on climate science. This kit also will include understandable communications, including simple fact sheets that present scientific uncertainties in language that the media and public can understand.
Conduct briefings by media-trained scientists for science writers in the top 20 media markets, using the information kits. Distribute the information kits to daily newspapers nationwide with offer of scientists to brief reporters at each paper. Develop, disseminate radio news releases featuring scientists nationwide, and offer scientists to appear on radio talk shows across the country.
Produce, distribute a steady stream of climate science information via facsimile and e-mail to science writers around the country.
Produce, distribute via syndicate and directly to newspapers nationwide a steady stream of op-ed columns and letters to the editor authored by scientists.
Convince one of the major news national TV journalists (e.g., John Stossel ) to produce a report examining the scientific underpinnings of the Kyoto treaty.
Organize, promote and conduct through grassroots organizations a series of campus/community workshops/debates on climate science in 10 most important states during the period mid-August through October, 1998.
Consider advertising the scientific uncertainties in select markets to support national, regional and local (e.g., workshops / debates), as appropriate.
So, there you go. I've answered your comments honestly, directly, and with no agenda, despite how utterly worthless they are in terms of the science.
You've chosen to throw a dozen new hats into the ring. None of them prove or disprove anything, other than demonstrating how much you want to rely on fluff and how much you are prepared to believe what anyone says if it is critical of the tobacco industry and can be used to illustrate why they should not be believed. It may be that everything is true, but "may be" isn't enough for me. It shouldn't be enough for you either, unless you apply "Ahhh, maybe is good enough" to everything you are asked to consider.
You talked earlier about "boiling it down". I gave you a link to the EPA report that is the basis for the Class A carcinogen listing. It's a key point. You've chosen not to discuss it. You don't need to be a scientist. All you need is a broad familiarity with statistics and sound research practices. If you've got something of genuine worth to add then please do so. By which I mean why do you think the EPA report is reliable, not "Here's what Camus had to say....".
Like I said earlier, it is at the point of really needing to weight the data that most people cut and run. You know you're sidestepping. Either address it or stop wasting my time. Last chance.
OK tb, let's recap.
So far you have claimed to know a lot, but have said NOTHING, except criticize me for providing evidence that secondhand smoke is a major health risk.
You posted a link to the EPA report that is the basis for the Class A carcinogen listing.
HERE is the major conclusions in the report YOU posted.
1.1. MAJOR CONCLUSIONS
Based on the weight of the available scientific evidence, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has concluded that the widespread exposure to environmental tobacco smoke (ETS) in the United States presents a serious and substantial public health impact.
In adults:
- ETS is a human lung carcinogen, responsible for approximately 3,000 lung cancer deaths annually in U.S. nonsmokers
.
In children:
- ETS exposure is causally associated with an increased risk of lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs) such as bronchitis and pneumonia. This report estimates that 150,000 to 300,000 cases annually in infants and young children up to 18 months of age are attributable to ETS.
- ETS exposure is causally associated with increased prevalence of fluid in the middle ear, symptoms of upper respiratory tract irritation, and a small but significant reduction in lung function.
- ETS exposure is causally associated with additional episodes and increased severity of symptoms in children with asthma. This report estimates that 200,000 to 1,000,000 asthmatic children have their condition worsened by exposure to ETS.
- ETS exposure is a risk factor for new cases of asthma in children who have not previously displayed symptoms.
So tb, your time is up. You claim to know a lot. Shit or get off the pot.
Charming as ever.
What you've done is to read one of two pages, grab the headline findings and then regurgitate them here. And I really love the way you have capitalized certain words ("HERE is the major conclusions in the report YOU posted."). I know what I posted, so why are you telling me what I posted? Are you, by any chance, doing it because your responses are meant not for me but for others? Just stop it, forget that other people may be reading it and try to think of this as a one on one conversation.
I asked you to say why you supported their findings. As with every other post you have made so far, you have simply reposted what someone else has said, and not given the first thought to answering the question "Why do you believe it". I'm going to give it one last shot at drawing your thoughts rather than someone else's out of you.
OK. To again keep the conversation focused, I'm going to concentrate it, otherwise we'll be here all day. And for consistency, I'll concentrate once again on the first point you have chosen to list.
ETS is a human lung carcinogen, responsible for approximately 3,000 lung cancer deaths annually in U.S. nonsmokers
That number, 3000, is pretty much the same as the number listed in the link you originally posted from the American Cancer Society. So, after nearly 20 years, the number is the one that the ACS, and other groups and the media, continue to quote. The EPA report is what originally established the link, originally quoted the 3000 figure and classified ETS as a Class A carcinogen.
I have asked you why you think that is reliable. Your response to me is to quote what the report says.
So, once again, you're quoting their position rather than saying why you agree with it, so I'm going to assume you agree with it simply because it is from the EPA and you don't have the knowledge or the inclination to review it and see whether their conclusions hold water.
This seems odd, on the basis that if the tobacco industry released a report you would instantly dismiss it as a bunch of slanted lies, but since this is the EPA you just parrot what they are saying. If you want to be "truly informed" you should question BOTH. You should view BOTH as potentially having an agenda. But since you appear to just accept the EPA report as factual (that would be the implication of your actions), I will now point out to you some things about the EPA report that ought to make you say to yourself "What would I think if a report from the tobacco industry followed this same methodology/process". As a reminder, I an NOT saying that the EPA report is incorrect. What I am saying that just swallowing their conclusions without chewing is just as naive as swallowing a report from a pro-smokers rights group.
So, dividing my concerns up into broad areas.
Area A: Studies used to support the 3000 figure
1. The EPA report is a meta analysis. That means it contains no proprietary research. It is an analysis based on existing reports, all of which use different methodologies. That does not invalidate any of the findings. However, it does make the analysis in all the different studies difficult to aggregate accurately. I'm sure we can agree on this. It's a simple statement of statistical fact.
2. The EPA located a total of 33 reports that were relevant to their study (i.e. that compared ETS to lung cancer rates). Of these, they dismissed 2 and used the remaining 31. Later on a further study was excluded, leaving the total meta analysis at 30 studies.
3. On page 1-9, point 1.3.1.2 Indicates "The best estimate of approximately 3000 lung cancer deaths per year in U.S. nonsmokers age 35 and over attributable to ETS (Chapter 6) is based on data pooled from all 11 U.S. epidemiological studies of never-smoking women married to smoking spouses.
NOTE: So, we're now down to 11 reports. This does not invalidate the findings, but it does make one question the objectivity to a degree. More on this later.
Area B: Confounders, Relative Risk (RR), Confidence Interval (CI)
Confounders are elements that specifically need to be accounted for within results. For instance, if calculating the average number of people who will develop heart disease, it is important to consider ethnicity, because heart disease is significantly higher in some communities than others. Without accounting for this, you will be seriously skewing the results.
Finding out the RR is basically the key goal of any epidemiological study. For instance, if you want to determine the RR of drinking red wine on heart disease (something for which studies have jumped back and forth for decades), you first need to establish a baseline by finding out how many people have heart disease. Let's say 10 people in 1000 have heart disease. That gives us the baseline, and is referred to as a RR of 1.0.
If data shows that 15 out of 1000 red wine drinkers have heart disease, that would be a RR of 1.5. If it's 20 people, that's a RR of 2.0, and so on. These figures would start to imply that there was perhaps some sign of increased RR. If however, the figures showed that only 5 of the 1000 have heart disease, that's a RR of 0.5, and may indicate a beneficial effect. In general, statisticians prefer a RR of at least 2.0 in order for RR to be considered statistically significant.
In addition to this, the CI is used to determine how precise or reliable the stated RR truly is. CI is usually expressed as a range, such as 0.90 to 1.30. A 95% confidence level is normally required
NOTE: So, all these things need to be taken into account when you review the methodology.
Once again, I'll keep it simple for you here since giving a whole host of issues is going to overwhelm you and will mean you just go back to posting generalized links to cover your lack of understanding
So......consider the following and then make up your mind about whether you feel the EPA Report should be universally accepted (as it has been), or whether it is reasonable to consider that perhaps the evidence is not as well founded at one might expect from an institution such as the EPA.
- The report concluded that there is an overall relative risk of
1.19 for developing lung cancer for female non-smokers in the U.S. with a
90 percent confidence interval of (1.04, 1.35). The report also says that this evidence is "statistically significant and conclusive".
Why do I have a concern about this?
Because a RR of 1.19 is, in statistical terms, utterly insignificant. It indicates a 19% increase. 19% is barely worth the paper it's printed on. Ideally, you'd be looking for a RR of 3.0 or higher. 2.0 is really scraping the barrel. This isn't simply my view. Its Epidemiology 101. How the EPA can say 1.19 is "statistically significant" simply beggars belief.
So, the EPA classified ETS as a Class A carcinogen with by
- Setting aside many of the reports
- Accepting a 1.19 RR
- Dropping the CI to 90%
And the question therefore is, would this kind of slack / flawed level of rigor be accepted if the report was about anything other than the tobacco industry? Let's face it. If the tobacco industry produced a report that used similarly flawed parameters they would, quite rightly, be pilloried. But, if the tobacco industry raises issues with the EPA report, those issues are dismissed because they have been raised by the tobacco industry. Bizarrely, if the tobacco industry criticizes the methodology, it actually has the result of making people rally round the EPA to defend it from 'Big Tobacco' irrespective of whether the criticism has merit.
That is about the simplest way I can boil down one of the key findings. There are a number of other potential areas of concern as well, but I've asked you for your views on the overall report more than once and you basically said nothing other to repeat the report. So, now I've focused on one particular but key element. The Relative Risk. If you can't answer directly about this one issue - why you feel a RR of 1.19 should be considered statistically significant - then it is clear that you have no answers other than somebody else's.
If you've got questions about this particular point please feel free to let me know. If you're just going to wander off into something else or throw some more climate science links around please don't even bother - and have a nice day.