Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
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Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) is announcing his candidacy for the Presidency in the next hours.
Former RI Gov. Lincoln Chafee (I) is announcing his candidacy officially for the D- nomination for the Presidency on June 3rd. He already announced unofficially in May, on CNN.
Former Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) is announcing on June 4th.
This means that at the end of the week, there will be a sum total of 14 candidates already in the 2016 race:
10 on the R side
4 on the D side
In order to help keep the data in order, I have made a handy table, which I will be updating:
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) was the first to announce, way back on March 23rd, 596 days before the GE on November 8th, 2016. When Rick Perry announces on June 4th, it will be 523 days before the GE in 2016. So, in a time-span of 63 days, we will have seen 14 candidacies announced.
Remaining are four Republicans who are very, very likely to announce. OH Gov. John Kasich has already announced he will be announcing in "summer". There is no doubt that both Jeb Bush and Scott Walker will enter the race. And Bobby Jindal has also formed an exploratory committee. Though it sometimes happens, it is rare that a prospective candidate forms such a committee and then doesn't run. I would say that Jindal is also in.
Also, on the D side, Jim Webb may or may not announce. He's not made any big moves nor has he formed an exploratory committee, so I am not really sure he is planning to run at all.
Other publications are claiming that the R-field may have as many as 18 candidates, for instance, with Don Trump on board (he is planning to announce something soon), but my gut tells me it probably won't go over 15.
Let's take the R-field at present first. Here are the states from which the GOP candidates hail:
Of the 10 GOP candidates who have announced, 6 are from the South, 3 are from the Midwest to the East, and 1 is from the West.
Assuming that the other four presumed candidate announce, then it will soon look like this:
That would be 8 GOP candidates from the South, 5 from the Midwest (Rust-belt) to the East and 1 from the West.
I am not really sure if anyone is taking Carly Fiorina's candidacy seriously at all, and stranger things have happened in US politics, but I personally believe that she has absolutely no chance at all and is auditioning for the VP slot.
Either way you slice it, the majority of GOP candidates hail from the South.
On the Democratic side, it looks like this:
All four of the Democratic candidates are from the NE/Acela region of the USA. Were Jim Webb to also throw his hat into the ring, then it could look like this:
In that case, it would still be the NE/Acela region of the USA, with some of the mid-atlantic Seaboard as well.
What is missing from both fields of candidates is a candidate from the Southeast, the Breadbasket or the Blue Sky states.
The could, however, change, should Jim Thune (R-SD) decide to run, after all.
So, enough of geography, although it is sometimes very enlightening to see this stuff.
Were I to rank the Democratic field from Far-Left to center, it would be:
Far Left - Sanders
Left - Chafee
Center Left (Moderate) - O'Malley, Clinton
Center Right - Webb
And were I to rank the GOP field, partly based on voting record (where applicable) and feeling, from the Far Right inward, it would be:
Far Right - Cruz, Huckabee, Santorum, Perry
Far Right-Libertarian - Paul
Right - Bush, Walker, Jindal
Center Right (Moderate) - Carson, Rubio, Kasich
Center Left - Graham, Pataki
Undefinable for lack of any record - Fiorina
Like I said, that is just my feeling, and perhaps on a specific issue, one of those candidates could either be far to the Right or far to the Left, but en toto, that is my feeling.
In terms of the $$ chase, officially, according to the FCC, the most money drawn has come from Texas at the current time, which points to Ted Cruz doing well in the money-hunt. But the outside money is not listed there:
Presidential Campaign Finance
When do I think that Bush, Walker and Jindal will declare? Well, surely before the 1st debate, because I doubt they would want to miss out on it. And that debate is set for August 6th, a FOX debate that will be held in Cleveland, OH.
So, my instinctive feeling is that the GOP field will be pretty much set by the end of July, barring any unforseen catastrophes and the like.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For those who are interested, I would like to see your rankings of both fields.
You can use my rankings-text-format as an example to show your rankings.
Have fun and enjoy the information.
-Stat
Former RI Gov. Lincoln Chafee (I) is announcing his candidacy officially for the D- nomination for the Presidency on June 3rd. He already announced unofficially in May, on CNN.
Former Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX) is announcing on June 4th.
This means that at the end of the week, there will be a sum total of 14 candidates already in the 2016 race:
10 on the R side
4 on the D side
In order to help keep the data in order, I have made a handy table, which I will be updating:
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) was the first to announce, way back on March 23rd, 596 days before the GE on November 8th, 2016. When Rick Perry announces on June 4th, it will be 523 days before the GE in 2016. So, in a time-span of 63 days, we will have seen 14 candidacies announced.
Remaining are four Republicans who are very, very likely to announce. OH Gov. John Kasich has already announced he will be announcing in "summer". There is no doubt that both Jeb Bush and Scott Walker will enter the race. And Bobby Jindal has also formed an exploratory committee. Though it sometimes happens, it is rare that a prospective candidate forms such a committee and then doesn't run. I would say that Jindal is also in.
Also, on the D side, Jim Webb may or may not announce. He's not made any big moves nor has he formed an exploratory committee, so I am not really sure he is planning to run at all.
Other publications are claiming that the R-field may have as many as 18 candidates, for instance, with Don Trump on board (he is planning to announce something soon), but my gut tells me it probably won't go over 15.
Let's take the R-field at present first. Here are the states from which the GOP candidates hail:
Of the 10 GOP candidates who have announced, 6 are from the South, 3 are from the Midwest to the East, and 1 is from the West.
Assuming that the other four presumed candidate announce, then it will soon look like this:
That would be 8 GOP candidates from the South, 5 from the Midwest (Rust-belt) to the East and 1 from the West.
I am not really sure if anyone is taking Carly Fiorina's candidacy seriously at all, and stranger things have happened in US politics, but I personally believe that she has absolutely no chance at all and is auditioning for the VP slot.
Either way you slice it, the majority of GOP candidates hail from the South.
On the Democratic side, it looks like this:
All four of the Democratic candidates are from the NE/Acela region of the USA. Were Jim Webb to also throw his hat into the ring, then it could look like this:
In that case, it would still be the NE/Acela region of the USA, with some of the mid-atlantic Seaboard as well.
What is missing from both fields of candidates is a candidate from the Southeast, the Breadbasket or the Blue Sky states.
The could, however, change, should Jim Thune (R-SD) decide to run, after all.
So, enough of geography, although it is sometimes very enlightening to see this stuff.
Were I to rank the Democratic field from Far-Left to center, it would be:
Far Left - Sanders
Left - Chafee
Center Left (Moderate) - O'Malley, Clinton
Center Right - Webb
And were I to rank the GOP field, partly based on voting record (where applicable) and feeling, from the Far Right inward, it would be:
Far Right - Cruz, Huckabee, Santorum, Perry
Far Right-Libertarian - Paul
Right - Bush, Walker, Jindal
Center Right (Moderate) - Carson, Rubio, Kasich
Center Left - Graham, Pataki
Undefinable for lack of any record - Fiorina
Like I said, that is just my feeling, and perhaps on a specific issue, one of those candidates could either be far to the Right or far to the Left, but en toto, that is my feeling.
In terms of the $$ chase, officially, according to the FCC, the most money drawn has come from Texas at the current time, which points to Ted Cruz doing well in the money-hunt. But the outside money is not listed there:
Presidential Campaign Finance
When do I think that Bush, Walker and Jindal will declare? Well, surely before the 1st debate, because I doubt they would want to miss out on it. And that debate is set for August 6th, a FOX debate that will be held in Cleveland, OH.
So, my instinctive feeling is that the GOP field will be pretty much set by the end of July, barring any unforseen catastrophes and the like.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For those who are interested, I would like to see your rankings of both fields.
You can use my rankings-text-format as an example to show your rankings.
Have fun and enjoy the information.
-Stat
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