Pacific Northwest Climate Projections Outlined in New Report

[ScienceRocks]

Pacific Northwest Climate Projections Outlined in New Report

— November 5, 2013

Lots of change is in the air in a warmer Pacific Northwest, a new analysis projects, many posing significant ecological and economic concerns for the region.


A new report paints a sobering picture of and projections for the Pacific Northwest in a warming world.

The 2013 “Northwest Climate Assessment Report,” prepared by Oregon State University’s Oregon Climate Change Research Institute and scientists from across the region, addresses a number of projected impacts:
Modeling that projects warming of between 2 and 8.5 degrees F in the period from the last three decades of the nineties to 2041-2070, “with the lower end possible only if greenhouse gas emissions are significantly reduced.”
Annual precipitation declines of 5 to 14 percent by 2041-2070. The report points to some models showing decreases and some increases for every season, but “most models project lower summer rainfall by as much as 35 percent.”
Dry years will become dryer, but some basins will likely be buffered by groundwater.
Continued warming of rivers, lakes, and wetlands, with risks to aquatic species and extent of suitable habitat for many species, in particular salmonids and other species “already near their upper thermal tolerance.”
With local variations, sea-level increases of between 4 and 56 inches by 2100, compared to 2000. Shrinking of coastal marshes unable to migrate upshore.
More CO2 in northwest marine waters and more acidity and nutrient runoff for “some of the world’s most acidified conditions, hindering some marine organisms.”
Spatial distribution of suitable climate for “many important” tree species and vegetation types “may change considerably” by the end of the 21st century.
Prospects for increases in PNW areas subject to wildfires, increasing by about 900 square miles from the 1980-2006 average, a factor of 2.5 from the 1980-2006 average.

The report advises that “federal and state policies governing management and harvest may impact the economy as much as any effect attributable to climate change” and that forestry productivity gains in a higher-CO2 climate and warmer temperatures “may be offset by insect and disease outbreaks” and expanded wildfires, for instance from Swiss needle damages to Douglas fir trees.

On public health implications, the report says the PNW “vulnerability remains relatively low,” but it projects that “adverse impacts of climate change outweigh any positive ones.” It points to risks of more heart-related deaths, worse air quality and more allergenic disease, and emergence of more infectious diseases and more mental health problems.

Pacific Northwest Climate Projections Outlined in New Report | The Yale Forum on Climate Change & The Media

 

[Kosh]

The climate models are crap even NASA has admitted to that, but I guess you won't listen to the PhD's in the field.

 

[ScienceRocks]

How reliable are climate models?

Predicting/projecting the future

A common argument heard is "scientists can't even predict the weather next week - how can they predict the climate years from now". This betrays a misunderstanding of the difference between weather, which is chaotic and unpredictable, and climate which is weather averaged out over time. While you can't predict with certainty whether a coin will land heads or tails, you can predict the statistical results of a large number of coin tosses. In weather terms, you can't predict the exact route a storm will take but the average temperature and precipitation over the whole region is the same regardless of the route.

There are various difficulties in predicting future climate. The behaviour of the sun is difficult to predict. Short-term disturbances like El Nino or volcanic eruptions are difficult to model. Nevertheless, the major forcings that drive climate are well understood. In 1988, James Hansen projected future temperature trends (Hansen 1988). Those initial projections show good agreement with subsequent observations (Hansen 2006).

Hansen's Scenario B (described as the most likely option and most closely matched the level of CO2 emissions) shows close correlation with observed temperatures. Hansen overestimated future CO2 levels by 5 to 10% so if his model were given the correct forcing levels, the match would be even closer. There are deviations from year to year but this is to be expected. The chaotic nature of weather will add noise to the signal but the overall trend is predictable.

I'll admit because of the pause it is on the low side...

 

[mamooth]

Kosh, why do you keep pulling such dishonest crap out of your ass? Even your fellow cultists are embarrassed by you, that's how much of a retard you are. You contribute nothing to any discussion except the 'tard ramblings of your political masters. Nobody likes you, and everyone is laughing at you. So why are you here?

 

[Old Rocks]

The climate models are crap even NASA has admitted to that, but I guess you won't listen to the PhD's in the field.

You want to listen to the Phd's in the field?

GC14C. The North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program: Studies Based on NARCCAP Simulations (Video On-Demand) - AGU Fall Meeting 2012

GC13E. The National Climate Assessment: Draft Findings, Building Capacity, and Implementing a Sustained Process (Video On-Demand) - AGU Fall Meeting 2012

Here you go, real scientists, Phd's, top of their fields. This is how you demonstrate science to support your position. You don't do it by pulling nonsense out of your ass as you have been doiing.
Video On-Demand Lectures and Sessions - AGU Fall Meeting 2012