Does Social Distancing Matter?
This paper develops and implements a method to monetize the impact of moderate social distancing on deaths from COVID-19. Using the Ferguson et al. (2020) simulation model of COVID-19’s spread and mortality impacts in the United States, we project that 3-4 months of moderate distancing beginning in late March 2020 would save 1.7 million lives by October 1. Of the lives saved, 630,000 are due to avoided overwhelming of hospital intensive care units. Using the projected age-specific reductions in death and age-varying estimates of the United States Government’s value of a statistical life, we find that the mortality benefits of social distancing are about $8 trillion or $60,000 per US household. Roughly 90% of the monetized benefits are projected to accrue to people age 50 or older. Overall, the analysis suggests that social distancing initiatives and policies in response to the COVID-19 epidemic have substantial economic benefits.
This paper develops and implements a method to monetize the impact of moderate social distancing on deaths from COVID-19. Using the Ferguson et al. (2020) simul
papers.ssrn.com
People have known for centuries that staying away from sick people in an epidemic prevents the spread of disease. Since there is no way of knowing whose sick, social distancing is all we got.
I could agree with social distancing. I don't agree with forcing people into their homes.
History teaches us that an epidemic has never been overcome by quarantines, but only by hygienic measures. Quarantines do not protect populations in which the disease is already present, they can only save a little time, but it cannot defeat the disease itself.
Stay-at-home has been sold to the public on the basis of protecting us. After all, our leaders care about us. They have only our best interests at heart. Right? And what is more terrifying to anyone than the state of their health? None of us want to put our loved ones lives in danger. And so we become even more compliant than normal.
I think Franklin said something like, “Those who would give up liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety.” Considering the continuous fear coming from our leaders and especially media, I don't know if any of us could feel safe. And government totalitarian response to an invisible enemy should make all of us feel demonstrably less free.
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