this is about oil & natural resources.....ideology doesn't put bread or vodka on the table, but securing pipelines & resource fields sure does...Plus, I assume you are aware of the Union between Belarus & Russia? Notice how that supposed state never really got off the ground beyond the paper document signed? Even Kazakhstan tried to get in on the act, but it went nowhere....
the fact of the matter is, Russia has no reason (political, ideological or economic) to go west. South is a different matter & a big reason why it is occuring....not to mention, they don't have the forces or the equipment to take us on....
Just to clarify the position of South Ossetia, before we go on (since I did the research), South Ossetia has never been separate from Georgia except for this most recent period. While the people are ethnically distinguishable from other Georgians, that is hardly important in this mixing bowl of a region. The ethnic group that forms the majority of South Ossetia has been there since they ran from the Mongols and sought the protection of the Prince there. South Ossetia and Georgia were absorbed into the Russian Empire in 1801. Since you are so informed about Russian history, you can tell us about the political ideology of Czar Alexander I and why he absorbed Georgia into his empire.
To your point about the condition of the Russian military. I've never found that optimism or overconfidence relative to a potential adversary has served anyone particularly well. It's best to assume the Russians are capable of more than might be apparent.
Going west. Yes, well it's hard to get to Poland from Russia without going through Ukraine. I would say Putin has had his eyes on the Ukraine for sometime now, wouldn't you? I further think that Russia feels naked without the Ukraine protecting it from the west.
Ok, I was being somewhat figurative. Not a literal tank army but think of what we are doing there. A missile shield and who knows what will come next? What the Russians see is their western front being encircled with potentially hostile forces. Imagine we send a fleet into the Baltic, we transit the sixth fleet into the Black Sea. We have land bases in Georgia. How long to get rail loaded tanks from Poland through a friendly Ukraine? Further airbases in Ukraine. Suddenly Moscow doesn't feel so safe, secure and remote does it?
Finally, if they wanted Georgian oil, why didn't they take the damned pipeline? What they don't like is the US hanging out in places like Georgia and Turkmenistan. They don't like big potential adversaries like us crawling up their butts. That's what this is about. Russia has a lots of oil. Sure, it's always nice to have more, but this is more about geo-politics than natural resources. Don't get me wrong, they'll take them and the payments they would return, this is about Russian hegemony over what they perceive is their sphere of influence. If Russia wanted to hang out in Mexico, you'd see something similar from us.
As I've shown, Russia has a huge reason to go west. Russia has always gone west for hundreds of years, repeatedly. This goes far beyond any ideology. In fact, if you are a student of Russian history and politics, you know that political ideology never satisfactorily explained Russia's geo-political actions. It was only when you looked at Russians as Russians and not Communists that you begin to see the pattern. Russia plays out these same themes over and over in its history. There is little reason to suspect that Putin would not return to these same themes that are so familiar to the Russian people. Russia has always traded space for time in war. Therefore, Russia desires space now. Russia's largest perceived external threat is in the west. Therefore, they need space in the west. That's not to say they will try it next week, but Putin is not done. He's not done with Georgia and he isn't done with an expansionist, adventurous and militarily resurgent Russian foreign policy.
