Well, the way that I see it is that most states are struggling at the moment and those that are not are surviving off of federal government handouts.
That means they're all broke, and going down at various speeds into default. What happens when a state defaults? Well we know what happened to Argentina in the 1980's after the junta collapsed. The Weimar republic, and there are dozens of other examples too. Everyone suffered, and often strongmen came to power that did even more horrible things that required decades to escape from.
When you end those handouts and drop social programs in the laps of the states, all 50 (um, yes, President Obama there are only 50) states will be in very deep hot water.
That is why they will end. The question is, would you rather see a 20% cut, 50% or shutdown? All these options are there, but there is no 'keep it the same or increase their spending' option.
If you increase taxes, you get a one year bump to revenues then a collapse till it's repealed because people and businesses flee the state leaving those who cannot flee stuck in poverty creating an economic wasteland.
Just like the home budget. You can't print money. You can have only so many income streams. You can declare bankruptcy but the consequences are dire. You can let your debtors repossess your goods and property or sell it off to pay debt.
At some point, you must decide what spending must end. Those trips to Disney or Vegas... done. The private schools for the kids, done. Public school for them. Buying fillet Mignon and lobster, arugula and quinoa? Try hamburger and tuna, beans and rice. Turn off the lights, turn down the HVAC, walk to work, drop the extra activities... everything.
This is the point we are at. The end of spending as we know it. Here's your new normal. Life's a *****, work hard and let's get through this helping each other without government money.
The error is in thinking this can be avoided.