Official USMB Mafia Game #6: The Rebels In The Palace

[CaféAuLait]

I'd say FA did not think I was a fellow guard and definitely not he ruler the way he tried to get me lynched all game.

The fact he did try to get you lynched all game I would agree with, but not just going off that reads list, was my point.

 

[Mertex]

I'd say FA did not think I was a fellow guard and definitely not he ruler the way he tried to get me lynched all game.

That's why we have eliminated you as a suspect for ruler....besides, as I pointed before, when you had a wagon beginning to build, I don't remember anyone coming to your defense except House.

 

[CaféAuLait]

If you are talking about FA, he only voted for wolf and TSO and you (on D3). But since we know he turned out to be guard, he didn't know who the other guards were. He could have had an idea, but I'm sure he wouldn't have shared that with us.

he gave reads though. It does seem likely that he wouldn't read the ruler as a guard

I'm thinking he wouldn't read the ruler as scum. After all, the ruler was his lifeline.

exactly. So those he did read as scum can be eliminated as the ruler

Given he read his teammates as scum in game 4, (also lifelines for scum) I can't entirely agree with these statements. He only had one firm scum read on his list anyway, SR. IIRC he was leaning scum for you and said wolf was antitown or scum. I may have forgotten someone.

No Cafe, in Game 4, there was no Scum in a position where if he died the other Scum associated with him would die also. This game is unique in that the guards have to keep the ruler alive even if they die, because once we get the ruler, whatever guards are still alive, die too.

I understand this. FA's one post reads list where he is iffy on 2 out of 3 he is reading as scum with the rest being null and given how he read his scummate last game ( as scum) . If I went by that list alone, I would peg Aye as ruler. My point is again, it can't just be based on that reads list.

 

[CaféAuLait]

*how he read his scummates

 

[Mertex]

Mathblade is the one playing elsewhere and 2 posts out of 26 looking extremely town does not a townie make. Scum are capable of making townie posts also. She was also one of FA's townreads along with Aye. So that is something else as damning because she hadn't even said much at the time for him to call her town. She may have stopped posting. Wake hasn't said anything even though I asked him to prod her at least a day or 2 ago.

As far as who FA's scumreads are-that just means myself and SR aren't the ruler. I know I'm not the ruler and I don't suspect her of being the ruler either but I do suspect a townread of FA's who hadn't said much to be given that kind of read. Especially when he had so many nulls.

I'd also be willing to lynch mathblade or Shaitra and possibly SR.

Avi would be someone I would hammer to break a NL type situation.

I'm not really considering anyone else right now.

But didn't you change your vote to Arden? It's hard to tell who's voting who when some keeps changing. I'm keeping my vote on Avatar unless I see a wagon forming on someone else, then I'll be glad to vote for that person unless it's one of my Town reads, but if there is enough compelling evidence against that person by the ones I consider Town, I'll be glad to change my vote.

 

[Mertex]

he gave reads though. It does seem likely that he wouldn't read the ruler as a guard

I'm thinking he wouldn't read the ruler as scum. After all, the ruler was his lifeline.

exactly. So those he did read as scum can be eliminated as the ruler

Given he read his teammates as scum in game 4, (also lifelines for scum) I can't entirely agree with these statements. He only had one firm scum read on his list anyway, SR. IIRC he was leaning scum for you and said wolf was antitown or scum. I may have forgotten someone.

No Cafe, in Game 4, there was no Scum in a position where if he died the other Scum associated with him would die also. This game is unique in that the guards have to keep the ruler alive even if they die, because once we get the ruler, whatever guards are still alive, die too.

I understand this. FA's one post reads list where he is iffy on 2 out of 3 he is reading as scum with the rest being null and given how he read his scummate last game ( as scum) . If I went by that list alone, I would peg Aye as ruler. My point is again, it can't just be based on that reads list.

But what I am saying is that I don't think he would ever read the ruler as Scum, it would be against his best interest in this game because he most definitely would not want to even hint at who might be ruler. In game 4 it might not matter as much because if he hinted at someone being Scum and others voted for that person and were successful in lynching that person, he would remain alive. Not in this game. Anyway, I'm not prone to believe Scum's idea of who is Scum and who is Town.

 

[Wolfsister77]

Mathblade is the one playing elsewhere and 2 posts out of 26 looking extremely town does not a townie make. Scum are capable of making townie posts also. She was also one of FA's townreads along with Aye. So that is something else as damning because she hadn't even said much at the time for him to call her town. She may have stopped posting. Wake hasn't said anything even though I asked him to prod her at least a day or 2 ago.

As far as who FA's scumreads are-that just means myself and SR aren't the ruler. I know I'm not the ruler and I don't suspect her of being the ruler either but I do suspect a townread of FA's who hadn't said much to be given that kind of read. Especially when he had so many nulls.

I'd also be willing to lynch mathblade or Shaitra and possibly SR.

Avi would be someone I would hammer to break a NL type situation.

I'm not really considering anyone else right now.

But didn't you change your vote to Arden? It's hard to tell who's voting who when some keeps changing. I'm keeping my vote on Avatar unless I see a wagon forming on someone else, then I'll be glad to vote for that person unless it's one of my Town reads, but if there is enough compelling evidence against that person by the ones I consider Town, I'll be glad to change my vote.

I was talking about Arden in my above post and yes, I'm voting for her along with Avi and Aye.

Avi has 4 votes-you, ika, SR, and Josh.

mathblade is voting Shaitra

 

[Mertex]

Mathblade is the one playing elsewhere and 2 posts out of 26 looking extremely town does not a townie make. Scum are capable of making townie posts also. She was also one of FA's townreads along with Aye. So that is something else as damning because she hadn't even said much at the time for him to call her town. She may have stopped posting. Wake hasn't said anything even though I asked him to prod her at least a day or 2 ago.

As far as who FA's scumreads are-that just means myself and SR aren't the ruler. I know I'm not the ruler and I don't suspect her of being the ruler either but I do suspect a townread of FA's who hadn't said much to be given that kind of read. Especially when he had so many nulls.

I'd also be willing to lynch mathblade or Shaitra and possibly SR.

Avi would be someone I would hammer to break a NL type situation.

I'm not really considering anyone else right now.

But didn't you change your vote to Arden? It's hard to tell who's voting who when some keeps changing. I'm keeping my vote on Avatar unless I see a wagon forming on someone else, then I'll be glad to vote for that person unless it's one of my Town reads, but if there is enough compelling evidence against that person by the ones I consider Town, I'll be glad to change my vote.

I was talking about Arden in my above post and yes, I'm voting for her along with Avi and Aye.

Avi has 4 votes-you, ika, SR, and Josh.

mathblade is voting Shaitra

I'd be glad to change my vote to Arden, but I would rather vote for Shaitra than Arden because I think Arden's reason for not posting is loss of interest. So who are your 4 Top Scum Reads. I already gave mine. Avatar, Shaitra, SR and Grandma.

@Cafe, who are your 4 Top Scum reads? @Aye, who are your 4 Top Scum Reads?

 

[Wolfsister77]

Mathblade is the one playing elsewhere and 2 posts out of 26 looking extremely town does not a townie make. Scum are capable of making townie posts also. She was also one of FA's townreads along with Aye. So that is something else as damning because she hadn't even said much at the time for him to call her town. She may have stopped posting. Wake hasn't said anything even though I asked him to prod her at least a day or 2 ago.

As far as who FA's scumreads are-that just means myself and SR aren't the ruler. I know I'm not the ruler and I don't suspect her of being the ruler either but I do suspect a townread of FA's who hadn't said much to be given that kind of read. Especially when he had so many nulls.

I'd also be willing to lynch mathblade or Shaitra and possibly SR.

Avi would be someone I would hammer to break a NL type situation.

I'm not really considering anyone else right now.

But didn't you change your vote to Arden? It's hard to tell who's voting who when some keeps changing. I'm keeping my vote on Avatar unless I see a wagon forming on someone else, then I'll be glad to vote for that person unless it's one of my Town reads, but if there is enough compelling evidence against that person by the ones I consider Town, I'll be glad to change my vote.

I was talking about Arden in my above post and yes, I'm voting for her along with Avi and Aye.

Avi has 4 votes-you, ika, SR, and Josh.

mathblade is voting Shaitra

I'd be glad to change my vote to Arden, but I would rather vote for Shaitra than Arden because I think Arden's reason for not posting is loss of interest. So who are your 4 Top Scum Reads. I already gave mine. Avatar, Shaitra, SR and Grandma.

@Cafe, who are your 4 Top Scum reads? @Aye, who are your 4 Top Scum Reads?

My top 4 are Arden, Shaitra, Mathblade, and SR.

 

[CaféAuLait]

I'm thinking he wouldn't read the ruler as scum. After all, the ruler was his lifeline.

exactly. So those he did read as scum can be eliminated as the ruler

Given he read his teammates as scum in game 4, (also lifelines for scum) I can't entirely agree with these statements. He only had one firm scum read on his list anyway, SR. IIRC he was leaning scum for you and said wolf was antitown or scum. I may have forgotten someone.

No Cafe, in Game 4, there was no Scum in a position where if he died the other Scum associated with him would die also. This game is unique in that the guards have to keep the ruler alive even if they die, because once we get the ruler, whatever guards are still alive, die too.

I understand this. FA's one post reads list where he is iffy on 2 out of 3 he is reading as scum with the rest being null and given how he read his scummate last game ( as scum) . If I went by that list alone, I would peg Aye as ruler. My point is again, it can't just be based on that reads list.

But what I am saying is that I don't think he would ever read the ruler as Scum, it would be against his best interest in this game because he most definitely would not want to even hint at who might be ruler. In game 4 it might not matter as much because if he hinted at someone being Scum and others voted for that person and were successful in lynching that person, he would remain alive. Not in this game. Anyway, I'm not prone to believe Scum's idea of who is Scum and who is Town.

That is my point, BUT his possibly reading his ruler as scum would be a great way to throw the rest of us if we suspected him as scum. Wasn't Wolf reading him as scum before his posted that reads list? Arden voted him and a few others. I would think to give a true reading of who the ruler was a scum would be a tactic used. BUT we are putting too much into this one single post by FA IMO.

At the time being my top scum reads are waffling. Grandma is rubbing me the wrong way, her game seems off. Avatar I am rereading given his insistence he has been town and I have missed it. Shai I am waffling on. SR's meta has changed. She said last game something like, when I get a scum read I never come off of it. She has been all over the place in her votes and seemed a little more than perturbed when I voted FA and gave my reason then others started jumping on his wagon. WHEN it was her idea to chain up two people to begin with. Mathhblade's self-voting as we had the wagon and FA and Avi seemed like a way to break up the vote- BUT the only way this world matter if Avatar is ruler- because she would not know FA was guard. I feel like I am missing something though. I also feel we have not looked at a few who have not been looked at, like Aye and maybe even Josh.

 

[Mertex]

My top 4 are Arden, Shaitra, Mathblade, and SR.

Okay, we both agree on Shaitra and SR. I would be willing to vote for either one.

Who are your 4 Top Town reads including yourself. Let's see how many we are both agreeing on, then we can ask the ones that we both agree on to name their 4 Top Scum reads. We then can decide which of the ones we all agree on we will vote on and see who joins.

My top 4 Town reads (I had already listed) are you, Cafe, Aye and myself.

 

[CaféAuLait]

Oh and IKA has said he thinks SR is scum on several occasions- and states he knows her scum game and she states she knows his. BUT I will also say that it seems anytime anyone new joins us from the mainsite they want SR lynched immediately. I think this also happened in this game or was it last game when someone popped in and asked if we had lynched SR yet? TSO!?

 

[Wolfsister77]

My top 4 are Arden, Shaitra, Mathblade, and SR.

Okay, we both agree on Shaitra and SR. I would be willing to vote for either one.

Who are your 4 Top Town reads including yourself. Let's see how many we are both agreeing on, then we can ask the ones that we both agree on to name their 4 Top Scum reads. We then can decide which of the ones we all agree on we will vote on and see who joins.

My top 4 Town reads (I had already listed) are you, Cafe, Aye and myself.

Me, you, Josh_B, and either Cafe or ika.

 

[Mertex]

My top 4 are Arden, Shaitra, Mathblade, and SR.

Okay, we both agree on Shaitra and SR. I would be willing to vote for either one.

Who are your 4 Top Town reads including yourself. Let's see how many we are both agreeing on, then we can ask the ones that we both agree on to name their 4 Top Scum reads. We then can decide which of the ones we all agree on we will vote on and see who joins.

My top 4 Town reads (I had already listed) are you, Cafe, Aye and myself.

Me, you, Josh_B, and either Cafe or ika.

Okay, so there are at least three of us. Me, you and Cafe. Let's see who Cafe's top 4 Scum are and top 4 Town. Those of us who appear on more than one of our lists can choose one from our top scum and start a wagon on that person, and see where it goes. The way we are doing it now, we're just guessing, at least this way there will be some agreement. Then we can see who is willing to jump on that wagon and who doesn't. Whichever way our lynch flips, might give us a better clue where to go from there.

 

[Wolfsister77]

Oh and IKA has said he thinks SR is scum on several occasions- and states he knows her scum game and she states she knows his. BUT I will also say that it seems anytime anyone new joins us from the mainsite they want SR lynched immediately. I think this also happened in this game or was it last game when someone popped in and asked if we had lynched SR yet? TSO!?

I think it's a joke with those guys as far as asking if she's lynched yet. I am going to look at a Titus scum game at the main site. She is just all over the place and illogical and contradictory in many situations in this game and a touch defensive and her reads have been completely off. Also, the being so against the FA wagon was off putting also. I also have a post somewhere where I laid out her contradictions.

 

[ScarletRage]

I generally am considered extremely lynchable as town elsewhere. I did not want to create a self-fulfilling prophecy here.

Cafe, given your analysis, I would expect the ruler or other guards (from FA's perspective) to be null leaning one way or the other. He left himself options. The ruler could be hard town given FA would not need flexibility. A scumread FA never pushed is also consistent.

 

[Grandma]

Nice speech. The best way to do that is to look at Game 4. FA treated his scumbuddies in a certain way. Look for parallels.

I just finished reading his scum game from Game 4.

FA implied or thought both his scum buddies (grandma and aye) could be scum beginning of game- musing thoughts and or responses to the whole weird PM situation.

FA wondered if Grandma was scum 65
FA iffy if Aye is town or not Aye 100

Went hard Mertex when Mertex voted for Grandma (SCUM), FA went even harder after Mertex 232

When voted for he pointed finger at others. 289, 290, 335, 446

BUT he also defended Avatar (town) on several occasions 359, then he started to call him scummy later
FA buddied me (town) and SR (town) jumped on a lot of peoples arguments who they thought were scum, but were town. 410

Stops Avatars (town) wagon, People fall off Avatar wagon, to include his scum partners, finally votes Avatar
Grandma (scum) out and out defended a vote against FA (scum). 859

Says if Grandma is scum IF” but ends with she will flip town, 971. Continues to try and lynch Avatar
Defends Grandma (scum) again 1085 because TN (town) never came back for hammer, and people were wondering if Grandma and TN were scum.

Calls Grandma scummy for her announcing hammer 1148 (distancing again) Reads Aye as town.

Mertex suspects Grandma’s intent to hammer (again), being wrong about Avi (town) and two others who suspected Grandma were NKed. FA comes in and says just because people are wrong (grandma (scum) stating intent to hammer) 1150, accuses Mertex (town) of being scum again. (soft defends again)

Grandma (scum) soft defends FA(scum) when I ask her thoughts on him. 1184

FA goes after Mertex (town) again 1287 but then supposes Grandma might be scum again, then kinda discounts the idea. 1288

So he seems to be following the popular consensus when it comes to his Grandma Reads but soft defends her all the while calling his partner scum, initially questions his other partners alignment (Aye) at start of game.

We went out of our way to play that Game as batshit crazy as possible to confuse the hell out of Town. It worked. Barely, but our team did win at LyLo.

There is no way in hell FA would go so crazy this game, he's pretty middle-of-the-road. He would never risk his Ruler.

The Ruler is among his Null/Town reads, someone he would either defend or avoid mentioning at all. He certainly would not vote for the Ruler if there was a chance the wagon would take off.

So I'm excluding Avi as Ruler. (He could still be Guard or Usurper.)

Our choices are: Arden, Aye, Cafe, Josh, and Shaitra.

 

[Mertex]

My top 4 are Arden, Shaitra, Mathblade, and SR.

Okay, we both agree on Shaitra and SR. I would be willing to vote for either one.

Who are your 4 Top Town reads including yourself. Let's see how many we are both agreeing on, then we can ask the ones that we both agree on to name their 4 Top Scum reads. We then can decide which of the ones we all agree on we will vote on and see who joins.

My top 4 Town reads (I had already listed) are you, Cafe, Aye and myself.

Me, you, Josh_B, and either Cafe or ika.

Okay, so there are at least three of us. Me, you and Cafe. Let's see who Cafe's top 4 Scum are and top 4 Town. Those of us who appear on more than one of our lists can choose one from our top scum and start a wagon on that person, and see where it goes. The way we are doing it now, we're just guessing, at least this way there will be some agreement. Then we can see who is willing to jump on that wagon and who doesn't. Whichever way our lynch flips, might give us a better clue where to go from there.

@Cafe WS and I would like for you to tell us your Top 4 Scum and your Top 4 Town.

 

[Wolfsister77]

Nice speech. The best way to do that is to look at Game 4. FA treated his scumbuddies in a certain way. Look for parallels.

I just finished reading his scum game from Game 4.

FA implied or thought both his scum buddies (grandma and aye) could be scum beginning of game- musing thoughts and or responses to the whole weird PM situation.

FA wondered if Grandma was scum 65
FA iffy if Aye is town or not Aye 100

Went hard Mertex when Mertex voted for Grandma (SCUM), FA went even harder after Mertex 232

When voted for he pointed finger at others. 289, 290, 335, 446

BUT he also defended Avatar (town) on several occasions 359, then he started to call him scummy later
FA buddied me (town) and SR (town) jumped on a lot of peoples arguments who they thought were scum, but were town. 410

Stops Avatars (town) wagon, People fall off Avatar wagon, to include his scum partners, finally votes Avatar
Grandma (scum) out and out defended a vote against FA (scum). 859

Says if Grandma is scum IF” but ends with she will flip town, 971. Continues to try and lynch Avatar
Defends Grandma (scum) again 1085 because TN (town) never came back for hammer, and people were wondering if Grandma and TN were scum.

Calls Grandma scummy for her announcing hammer 1148 (distancing again) Reads Aye as town.

Mertex suspects Grandma’s intent to hammer (again), being wrong about Avi (town) and two others who suspected Grandma were NKed. FA comes in and says just because people are wrong (grandma (scum) stating intent to hammer) 1150, accuses Mertex (town) of being scum again. (soft defends again)

Grandma (scum) soft defends FA(scum) when I ask her thoughts on him. 1184

FA goes after Mertex (town) again 1287 but then supposes Grandma might be scum again, then kinda discounts the idea. 1288

So he seems to be following the popular consensus when it comes to his Grandma Reads but soft defends her all the while calling his partner scum, initially questions his other partners alignment (Aye) at start of game.

We went out of our way to play that Game as batshit crazy as possible to confuse the hell out of Town. It worked. Barely, but our team did win at LyLo.

There is no way in hell FA would go so crazy this game, he's pretty middle-of-the-road. He would never risk his Ruler.

The Ruler is among his Null/Town reads, someone he would either defend or avoid mentioning at all. He certainly would not vote for the Ruler if there was a chance the wagon would take off.

So I'm excluding Avi as Ruler. (He could still be Guard or Usurper.)

Our choices are: Arden, Aye, Cafe, Josh, and Shaitra.

Out of that list I'll vote Arden or Shaitra.

 

[Wolfsister77]

FA had as town: Arden and Aye
Null: Avi, Shaitra
Scum: myself, SR

He didn't have anything on tso or oldschool and cafe or grandma hadn't replaced in yet.

Again, IMO, Arden or Shaitra is the best choice but Avi is acceptable to me.

Scum always seem to have a lot of null reads from what I have seen in games. I guess it's harder when you have to fabricate reads.

Let me know what you guys come up with. I'll be off probably the rest of the night.