Official USMB Mafia Game #1

[Mertex]

hmmm, I'm changing my vote.

Vote: Shaitra


Like I said, Mertex and Shaitra being the red team is as good a guess as any, but I'd rather take the chance on lynching Shaitra, and here is why...

If they are the red team, it doesn't matter which one we lynch first. But if Mertex isn't really mafia, but just a bit wrapped around the axle for bones, Shaitra could still very well be mafia and promoting his bones argument. If bones is lynched and turns out to be a townie, suspicion would fall on Mertex first.

If you want to know the truth, you are a big suspect, too. You haven't been posting much and all you wanted was to kill CK, which turned out to be a townie....so maybe that was a win for you?

If Shiatra, whom I don't think is scum, gets lynched because of your vote, then you will become a bigger suspect and threat.

If Strollingbones turns out to be a townie, then we need to concentrate on you and maybe even Blackflag, but I'm pretty sure SB is red mafia.

 

[manifold]

Why mertex though? Maybe you've seen something I missed.

We didn't really learn much from the first day/night. I have to imagine that a mafia team getting knocked off the first night is pretty rare and nothing more than dumb luck. So all anyone really has at this point is hunches and speculation. And when I see somebody (in this case Mertex) post a steaming pile of gibberish and call it a reasoned argument leading to an obvious conclusion, it strikes me as a bit of a red flag. And now that I think about it a bit more, Shaitra saying it makes sense makes me think the two of them are as good a guess as any to be the red team.

Why is Mertex's analysis a steaming pile? You haven't provided us with an analysis of the situation, so what's your take on what we know, not what you are speculating.

see bold portions that you must've missed the first time

 

[Wake]

Vote Count 2.2​

No Vote (6): strollingbones, Mebelle60, dblack, RosieS. R.D., Blackflag

strollingbones (3): Avatar4321, Mertex, Shaitra
Shaitra (1): Manifold

The Road So Far...​

Town Cop - ?
Town Doctor - ?
Vanilla Townie (Bulletproof) - ?
Vanilla Townie - ?
Vanilla Townie - ?
Vanilla Townie - ?
Vanilla Townie - Cereal_Killer
Vanilla Townie - ?
Vanilla Townie- ?
Red Mafia Roleblocker - ?
Red Mafia Goon - ?
Blue Mafia Roleblocker - Syrenn
Blue Mafia Goon - Moonglow



~ With 10 players alive, it takes 6 to lynch!
~ Deadline for Day 2 is 5/12/14, 4pm central time.

 

[Mertex]

We didn't really learn much from the first day/night. I have to imagine that a mafia team getting knocked off the first night is pretty rare and nothing more than dumb luck. So all anyone really has at this point is hunches and speculation. And when I see somebody (in this case Mertex) post a steaming pile of gibberish and call it a reasoned argument leading to an obvious conclusion, it strikes me as a bit of a red flag. And now that I think about it a bit more, Shaitra saying it makes sense makes me think the two of them are as good a guess as any to be the red team.

Why is Mertex's analysis a steaming pile? You haven't provided us with an analysis of the situation, so what's your take on what we know, not what you are speculating.

see bold portions that you must've missed the first time

But we did learn some things, and they've been posted. When Moonglow came after me so vehemently, just like you did just now, I knew he was getting desperate and trying to throw everyone off him. But it backfired, and everyone was able to see through his innocuous posts that he might be mafia. We turned out to be right.

So far, the ones that have been Mafia (Syrenn/Moonglow) didn't vote for many. The reason being that they are a small team and if they make a mistake it is very costly to them.

Syrenn only voted for CK....(why she changed to Moon at the last minute may have been that she saw it as a foregone conclusion and wanted to throw off suspicion against her).

Moonglow also didn't vote for anyone, came after me and his only vote was for me.

Strollingbones also didn't vote for anyone the first go-round.

MeBelle has been non-committal in her posts and only voted for me but at last minute changed to Moonglow (if she is red, she would not know that Moon was blue mafia.)

Manifold Also only voted for CK, didn't vote for anyone else.

Also suspect, but not sure:

Blackflag Only suggested voting for Shaitra out of revenge, and then everyone, non committal.

dblack Also non-committal, voted for Greenbeard, said 4 out of 11 of "us" are scum and at the very last voted for Rosie and then Moon.

So there you are, my take on who might be the Red mafia. Of course, now that I've posted why I think they are mafia, you will probably see them scurrying around trying to change their immage, doing the opposite of what they were doing....but when they were non-suspecting, they made their most suspicious moves.

They will all probably come after me, because they know that I have their number, now.

 

[R.D.]

vote:Stollingbones

 

[Avatar4321]

Im not convinced mertex is mafia, Manifold. I don't think your reasoning is strong. Of course, I dont think the reasoning for any of our votes is terribly strong at the moment.

As for Shaitra, I don't know her that well, but I haven't seen any glaring reason to suspect her. Of course, she could just be playing it close.

So do Mertex or Shaitra have any reason to target Syrenn? I am not seeing it.

At this point, other than SB, which I admit I am unsure of, the other one jumping out at me is blackflag because he has said anything since day 2 started. And that's flimsy too.

And you could be the scum mani. You were going after CK pretty hard and he was an innocent. Syrenn was as well. You could have targeted her thinking we were going to lynch CK today for it not realizing Syrenn was going to take him out for you. But then it's just as likely you were just targeting CK because we needed someone gone and you figured he was the best choice. The fact that you freely acknowledged going after CK at the beginning makes me think that's more the case and you aren't the scum.

I see no reason to switch my vote yet.

 

[manifold]

This is the post that makes me suspect Shaitra.

I know it's not much to go on, but Mertex' analysis didn't make any sense to me at all. And a great way for mafia scum to stay in the "shadows" as it were, would be to piggyback on someone else's "bold" accusation.

 

[Avatar4321]

This is the post that makes me suspect Shaitra.

I know it's not much to go on, but Mertex' analysis didn't make any sense to me at all. And a great way for mafia scum to stay in the "shadows" as it were, would be to piggyback on someone else's "bold" accusation.

I can understand your reasoning. That certainly would be a way to keep in the shadows. I just think it's a stretch at the moment. Maybe more evidence will shine a greater light on it.

But why would Shai want Syrenn dead?

 

[manifold]

This is the post that makes me suspect Shaitra.

I know it's not much to go on, but Mertex' analysis didn't make any sense to me at all. And a great way for mafia scum to stay in the "shadows" as it were, would be to piggyback on someone else's "bold" accusation.

I can understand your reasoning. That certainly would be a way to keep in the shadows. I just think it's a stretch at the moment. Maybe more evidence will shine a greater light on it.

But why would Shai want Syrenn dead?

Why wouldn't she?

 

[Avatar4321]

This is the post that makes me suspect Shaitra.

I know it's not much to go on, but Mertex' analysis didn't make any sense to me at all. And a great way for mafia scum to stay in the "shadows" as it were, would be to piggyback on someone else's "bold" accusation.

I can understand your reasoning. That certainly would be a way to keep in the shadows. I just think it's a stretch at the moment. Maybe more evidence will shine a greater light on it.

But why would Shai want Syrenn dead?

Why wouldn't she?

I don't know Shai well enough to answer the question either way

 

[manifold]

I can understand your reasoning. That certainly would be a way to keep in the shadows. I just think it's a stretch at the moment. Maybe more evidence will shine a greater light on it.

But why would Shai want Syrenn dead?

Why wouldn't she?

I don't know Shai well enough to answer the question either way

I'm talking about in the construct of the game.

If Shaitra is red mafia, then she wants to kill all townies AND the blue mafia team (of which Syrenn was one).

 

[Avatar4321]

Why wouldn't she?

I don't know Shai well enough to answer the question either way

I'm talking about in the construct of the game.

If Shaitra is red mafia, then she wants to kill all townies AND the blue mafia team (of which Syrenn was one).

That is a good point. But why her first then?

 

[manifold]

I don't know Shai well enough to answer the question either way

I'm talking about in the construct of the game.

If Shaitra is red mafia, then she wants to kill all townies AND the blue mafia team (of which Syrenn was one).

That is a good point. But why her first then?

why not her first?

If Shaitra is red mafia, all she would have known about Syrenn is that she wasn't.

 

[Shaitra]

We didn't really learn much from the first day/night. I have to imagine that a mafia team getting knocked off the first night is pretty rare and nothing more than dumb luck. So all anyone really has at this point is hunches and speculation. And when I see somebody (in this case Mertex) post a steaming pile of gibberish and call it a reasoned argument leading to an obvious conclusion, it strikes me as a bit of a red flag. And now that I think about it a bit more, Shaitra saying it makes sense makes me think the two of them are as good a guess as any to be the red team.

Why is Mertex's analysis a steaming pile? You haven't provided us with an analysis of the situation, so what's your take on what we know, not what you are speculating.

see bold portions that you must've missed the first time

I agree we didn't learn much the first day, but that is not to say we learned nothing. Obviously I read Mertex's post a bit differently than you did. But if you look back through the thread, several people have read other people's posts differently.

 

[Avatar4321]

I'm talking about in the construct of the game.

If Shaitra is red mafia, then she wants to kill all townies AND the blue mafia team (of which Syrenn was one).

That is a good point. But why her first then?

why not her first?

If Shaitra is red mafia, all she would have known about Syrenn is that she wasn't.

I've got no reason. But it still isn't much to go on. And for all we know if she is red, you could be her partner trying to throw suspicion off working together.

 

[R.D.]

I thought the scums were on one side against the townies. I know they don't know each other, but would they try to kill off each other?

I think Syrenn was offed because they thought she was a townie.

 

[manifold]

Why is Mertex's analysis a steaming pile? You haven't provided us with an analysis of the situation, so what's your take on what we know, not what you are speculating.

see bold portions that you must've missed the first time

I agree we didn't learn much the first day, but that is not to say we learned nothing. Obviously I read Mertex's post a bit differently than you did. But if you look back through the thread, several people have read other people's posts differently.

We didn't learn anything that truly helps us narrow down who's who among those still in the game. So I'm trying to think like mafia scum and asking myself, what would I do (or not do) if I were mafia.

I probably wouldn't sit back and say nothing at all.
I probably wouldn't go all-in after one person either.
What I might do is wait for someone else to build a case against someone and then pretend I'm convinced by it.

 

[manifold]

I thought the scums were on one side against the townies. I know they don't know each other, but would they try to kill off each other?

I think Syrenn was offed because they thought she was a townie.

Wake answered this yesterday.

It's a three team game.

red mafia
blue mafia
townies

 

[Avatar4321]

see bold portions that you must've missed the first time

I agree we didn't learn much the first day, but that is not to say we learned nothing. Obviously I read Mertex's post a bit differently than you did. But if you look back through the thread, several people have read other people's posts differently.

We didn't learn anything that truly helps us narrow down who's who among those still in the game. So I'm trying to think like mafia scum and asking myself, what would I do (or not do) if I were mafia.

I probably wouldn't sit back and say nothing at all.
I probably wouldn't go all-in after one person either.
What I might do is wait for someone else to build a case against someone and then pretend I'm convinced by it.

It's a game of chess we are playing with the mafia. We just have to hope we are three steps ahead of them.

 

[manifold]

I thought the scums were on one side against the townies. I know they don't know each other, but would they try to kill off each other?

I think Syrenn was offed because they thought she was a townie.

Wake answered this yesterday.

It's a three team game.

red mafia
blue mafia
townies

But then again, if the townies were all killed off before any mafia, who would win?