The poll numbers were so far off, can anyone have faith in Obama's polls numbers? I think if we had a real media and a fair polling system his numbers would be under 40%...
Most of the polls were cooked by way oversampling Democrats.
LA Times looks like the most accurate one of all!
Even hack Silver had to adjust somewhat for the bias.
No, the polls were not wrong!!!
They are national polls. When you poll nationally you obviously get national results.
You have to (and they should, but they're too damn lazy to), reduce the percentage by the surplus votes each candidate gets from the non swing states.
This year those should be:
Clinton 9.5 million
Trump 4.5 million.
The difference of 5 million is roughly 3.9% of the total national vote.
She needed that large of a lead to be win the majority of swing states. Below that and she losses swing states and marginal blue states.
The polls call California many more times than any other because they hold a huge population. She will win it with a surplus of +2.6 million votes. That alone will skew the national vote by +1.5 democrat.