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Those Qunnipiac polls are out of line with most others, but unless Mac starts to move in either MI, PA, or CO, Obama will be declared the winner by midnight eastern time election night.
I don't know. To be honest I think if Obama has a 5 point lead in all these swing states in nov, he will lose all of them.
As far as this country has come with race, the bradley effect has pretty much take it's toll in every major election. If Obama loses, I hope it's not due to this because racism should be a dead issue but when you face reality it isn't.
If you recall a poll as of late, 6% of people would not vote for Obama because he's black
Those are just the ones with the guts to tell the pollster they wouldn't vote for him because he's black.
So if Obama does lose this election, one of the top reasons (though perhaps not the only) will be race.
And if he wins, one of the top reasons will be race. Do you know how many blacks registered to vote just to put a black man in office?
People registering to vote is a good thing.
People voting against somebody because of race is a bad thing.
If you recall a poll as of late, 6% of people would not vote for Obama because he's black
Those are just the ones with the guts to tell the pollster they wouldn't vote for him because he's black.
So if Obama does lose this election, one of the top reasons (though perhaps not the only) will be race.
If Obama wins the general, I don't think itwill be because of race as the poster after you suggested.
You just said race is the reason he won the primaries, but it won't be the reason he wins the general?
Ooooooooooooooookay.
NO. The democrats garnar at least 80 percent of the African American vote every election. In the primaries, it is never clear which candidate will garnar the African American vote. In the general, it is pretty much a given which party they will support.
That is true, but I don't think that number will be that significant.
About 32 percent of newly registered voters through June are African-American.
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday is unchanged from the day before with Barack Obama attracting 51% of the vote while John McCain earns 45%. This is the sixth straight day that Obama has been at 50% or 51%, the sixth straight day that McCain has been at 44% or 45%, and the sixth straight day the Obama has enjoyed a five or six point lead
New state polling from Florida has moved that state from "Leans Republicant" to "Toss-up" in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. With this change, Obama leads in states with 200 Electoral College votes while McCain is ahead in states with 174 Electoral College votes. When “leaners” are included, it’s Obama 255, McCain 200.
Study: Omitting cell phone users may affect polls
By ALAN FRAM – 6 days ago
WASHINGTON (AP) — People with only cell phones may differ enough from those with landline telephones that excluding the growing population of cell-only users from public opinion polls may slightly skew the results, a study has concluded.
The finding, in a report this week by the nonpartisan Pew Research Center, may increase pressure on polling organizations to include people who use only cell phones in their surveys. While many major polls including The Associated Press-GfK Poll already interview cell phone users, some do not, largely because doing so is more expensive.
Earlier studies — including a joint Pew-AP report two years ago — concluded that cell and landline users had similar enough views that not calling cell users had no major impact on poll findings. The new report concludes that "this assumption is increasingly questionable," especially for young people, who use cells heavily.
Combining polls it conducted in August and September, Pew found that of people under age 30 with only cell phones, 62 percent were Democrats and 28 percent Republicans. Among landline users the same age that gap was narrower: 54 percent Democrats, 36 percent GOP.
Similarly, young cell users preferred Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama over Republican nominee John McCain by 35 percentage points. For young landline users, it was a smaller 13-point Obama edge.
