Obama - A One Termer?

[SwingVoter]

The RCP map with no toss ups has Obama winning 273-265, taking all the Kerry states + IA (not close now), NM, and CO

but if this same map were run with likely 2012 EVs, Obama's 8 EV lead turns to about a 12 EV deficit as AZ, FL, TX, NV, and GA gain, while NY, MA, PA, MI lose EVs after the adjustments for the 2010 census

Clinton, who had a successful 1st term in terms of dramatically increasing economic growth, reducing unemployment, and not having to send US troops into a major war, only gained 9 EVs from 92 to 96. And this was all because Florida flipped in his favor. While he also added AZ, 3 states - CO, MT, and GA flipped from Bush Sr. to Dole. Therefore, with all the values voters in the south, lower midwest, and great plains, it is hard to see Obama gaining a significant number of EVs even if he is a raging success as pres.

A second Obama term (I think he is likely to win this year), will require lots of effort in FL, AZ, and NV, and even that would make a 2012 re-election a fairly close call with just over 300 EVs in his favor.

 

[Jon]

Other states are likely to have huge electoral gains in 2010, also. I know the state of Arkansas has increased dramatically over the last 8 years, especially NW Arkansas. More people moved to Fayetteville in 2004 than any other city in the US.

I believe, if elected, Obama will only serve one term regardless of how the EV's change. He won't be able to make good on his promises, and people will immediately be disappointed that they bought into the hype.

 

[Navy1960]

SwingVoter,

I live in Arizona, and can tell you that even if Obama, does win this year I would not count on Arizona being one of those Western States he talks about. Now 2012 if Obama does win, a lot depends on the Republican candidate, if it's someone like Bob Dole in 1996 then there is a small chance, but don't count on the fact that because our gov. is a democrat he will win here. NV. will be close, I have a few friends I was in the military with that are retired there and they tell me it's going to be pretty close, a friend dare I say , a die hard democrat, whom I served with , was an ardent Clinton fan, and he tells me they are still pretty upset about that, he tells me that some maybe not all are going to vote for McCain. I do think though that NV. will be close.

 

[jillian]

SwingVoter,

I live in Arizona, and can tell you that even if Obama, does win this year I would not count on Arizona being one of those Western States he talks about. Now 2012 if Obama does win, a lot depends on the Republican candidate, if it's someone like Bob Dole in 1996 then there is a small chance, but don't count on the fact that because our gov. is a democrat he will win here. NV. will be close, I have a few friends I was in the military with that are retired there and they tell me it's going to be pretty close, a friend dare I say , a die hard democrat, whom I served with , was an ardent Clinton fan, and he tells me they are still pretty upset about that, he tells me that some maybe not all are going to vote for McCain. I do think though that NV. will be close.

Whether or not he's re-elected might also have something to do with the job he does. I'd hate to think that AZ would vote against him just because of his party, regardless of quality.

 

[CA95380]

Obama - A One Termer?

Don'cha wish we had kicked Bush to the curb when we had the chance?

 

[Navy1960]

Jillian ,

When presidential elections come around here in Az., they talk about the get out the vote drive among young people etc. However, here it's the seniors that always and I mean always vote in high numbers and traditionally it's Republican, and the area's depending on where you are, for example, mesa and tempe would be more of a bastion of the democratic Vote here, but area's like Prescott and Sun City and others are staunchly Republican , you might call it the the Ghosts of Barry Goldwater, Reagan, but as years past, and more people move here, and the population gets larger and it has. we tend to drift more and more left. So perhaps in several years, you might yet see, Az. go blue, we have before you know. It depends on the Candidate. and Obama at least in the area's I know of is not very well liked here.

 

[jillian]

Jillian ,

When presidential elections come around here in Az., they talk about the get out the vote drive among young people etc. However, here it's the seniors that always and I mean always vote in high numbers and traditionally it's Republican, and the area's depending on where you are, for example, mesa and tempe would be more of a bastion of the democratic Vote here, but area's like Prescott and Sun City and others are staunchly Republican , you might call it the the Ghosts of Barry Goldwater, Reagan, but as years past, and more people move here, and the population gets larger and it has. we tend to drift more and more left. So perhaps in several years, you might yet see, Az. go blue, we have before you know. It depends on the Candidate. and Obama at least in the area's I know of is not very well liked here.

Obama definitely has problems with the older vote. Hopefully, during the debates, that will be less so, though I doubt it, too. But again, perhaps he'll do a very good job and people who were skeptical will be impressed. That would be good for the country, I'd think.

And yes, older people are the heart of most grass roots political organizing. You should see them come out to get petitions and work as inspectors here in in NY!

 

[CA95380]

Obama definitely has problems with the older vote. Hopefully, during the debates, that will be less so, though I doubt it, too. But again, perhaps he'll do a very good job and people who were skeptical will be impressed. That would be good for the country, I'd think.

And yes, older people are the heart of most grass roots political organizing. You should see them come out to get petitions and work as inspectors here in in NY!

Me = old person, and voting for Obama. What are those old farts in NY inspectin? Am I missing something?

 

[jillian]

Me = old person, and voting for Obama. What are those old farts in NY inspectin? Am I missing something?

lol.. my parents.... not voting for obama. lol.. but I'm pretty sure my dad wouldn't have voted for Hillary either. Mom would have. I don't think a majority of older voters feel comfortable with him yet. That might change after the debates

Inspectors work at the polls on election day signing people in, directing people to the proper polling machine and then doing the tallies at the end of the day. They get a couple of hundred dollars for it, I think.

 

[Ninja]

If Obama wins - big IF, there are some warning signs that make an Obama presidency highly unlikely...

But IF... He'll go the way of Deval Patrick. One-term.

 

[Navy1960]

Obama definitely has problems with the older vote. Hopefully, during the debates, that will be less so, though I doubt it, too. But again, perhaps he'll do a very good job and people who were skeptical will be impressed. That would be good for the country, I'd think.

And yes, older people are the heart of most grass roots political organizing. You should see them come out to get petitions and work as inspectors here in in NY!

We have a lot of retiree's jillian from NY here so i'm not surprised at all. As a matter fo fact. We go to breakfast on Sunday's at a nice little cafe down the road here, and there is a Senior group that stands out there protesting the War and has off and on for year's. They are a pretty dynamic group, and like I said. , in order for Obama to carry a state like Az. besides getting the young people excited, he has to show that he has just a little conservative in him to the people that vote in big numbers here. If he can do that, then he may be able to change some minds who knows.

 

[Jon]

Whether or not he's re-elected might also have something to do with the job he does. I'd hate to think that AZ would vote against him just because of his party, regardless of quality.

Yeah, I'm sure you'd hate for someone to be partisaned against you, the partisan queen.

 

[editec]

If O wins, his election to a second term will depend on how well he does in his first term.

The incumbant tends to have an advantage but if O fails to significantly effect the lives of the American people in a positive way in his first term, he'll likely go down in defeat.

If for example, unemployment continues to climb or stay at this 6+% rate, if the cost of living continues to rise faster than incomes, I doubt he'll get a second term.

Given that the economic problems we have are systemic, and therefore not easily solved, I can easily see O losing a second term.

If that is the case, then his successor will face the same problem.

All of the above assumes that nothing dramatic changes in either foreign or domestic fronts, of course.

That is, I think, also somewhat unlikely, so predicting the outcome of an election five years hence is somewhat risky.