now, it's the IEA admitting peak

[Old Rocks]

And what do you propose future leaders do to represent our economic interests in this global economy?

I propose that they consider the welfare and well being of the majority of the people they represent primarily, rather than basing their representation on the wants of their largest campaign donors.

Now RGR, you cannot outlaw the GOP, no matter how backward they are.

 

[RGR]

Hmmm...... I think that you are the dummy here, Peak Oil for the US occured around 1970.

That was certainly the last one. There were several before it of course. The one in 1923 was certainly scary. Took nearly 7 years to recover from it. The one in 1956 only lasted 5 years. Or were you referring to the ones before 1900? Don't have the figures in front of me, but I think there was one or two then as well.

So the price of fuel started ratcheting up at the time as we went over the hump for peak oil here in the US. Now we see the same effect for fuel prices as we experiance the peak for the world.

Really? Prices in the US for fuel also collapsed in 1986, 16 years after the US peak. Then it got more expensive through 1990. Then it got cheaper through 1998. Then it got more expensive through 2000. Then it stayed cheaper through 2003. Then it got more expensive through 2008. Then it got cheaper. Now its getting more expensive.

You want to use all these ups and downs as proof of what? Prices went up through 1990 and caused peak? And up through 2000..and another peak? Peak in 2008? Peak in 2010?

You do realize that there is supposed to be ONE peak, and when Hubbert wrote his paper on the topic, he didn't say it was determined by price, but by production rates, right? Or is this someone else's version of what peak oil production is? Confusing it with price? You are aware that real crude oil prices this year aren't any different than they were in 1864, right? Did that peak oil (high price = peak, right) harm your great-great-great grandparents much? Didn't seem to bother mine.

 

[RGR]

Like global warming, peak oil is a fact, one that will have an increasing effect on our economy.

Sure it's a fact. It has even happened before, and people were worried about its effects during those other times as well. Scared the crap out of Warren Harding....in 1923. As old as your rocks might be, I doubt if either you or I were around for that oil scare!

Imagine how frightening this most recent peak oil might be, if we aren't even appropriating land to put aside for future use! Someone must tell the President to start acquiring property to set aside for future generations! <eek!>

 

[RGR]

And what do you propose future leaders do to represent our economic interests in this global economy?

I propose that they consider the welfare and well being of the majority of the people they represent primarily, rather than basing their representation on the wants of their largest campaign donors.

Now RGR, you cannot outlaw the GOP, no matter how backward they are.

I have advocated the outlawing of no one. Be they the spend and taxers, or the tax and spenders (I'll let you fellows sort out which is which )

 

[KissMy]

IEA's own chart contradicts their propaganda.

 

[Old Rocks]

OK. People, find a chart that shows increasing reserves because of new discoveries. You cannot, because there it doesn't exist. We can temporarily increase supply by pumping more, but that just means the slope will be even steeper when we hit the bottom of the barrel.

 

[RGR]

Not a chart but.....this guy at po.com has been tallying up new discoveries for a couple years now. They have been in the 20-35 billion barrel range. His username is Oilfinder2, he has been documenting the discoveries for almost 4 years now.

Interesting in that the ASPO discovery charts want to censor that just like they do the real oil discoveries, isn't it?

Also, we have yet ANOTHER global peak oil I might add.

http://peakoil.com/forums/eia-reports-a-new-peak-in-crude-oil-at-75-282-million-bpd-t61460.html

 

[Old Rocks]

I have far more trust in the USGS assessments of reserves than the people promoting drilling. Look at the differance in the statements here. The promoters are stating that the USGS says 175 to 500 bbls, while the USGS site states 3.65 bbls. Were we able to extract every drop, that would equal a year of the amount of oil we import at present.

Massive Oil Deposit Could Increase US reserves by 10x

In the next 30 days the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) will release a new report giving an accurate resource assessment of the Bakken Oil Formation that covers North Dakota and portions of South Dakota and Montana. With new horizontal drilling technology it is believed that from 175 to 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil are held in this 200,000 square mile reserve that was initially discovered in 1951. The USGS did an initial study back in 1999 that estimated 400 billion recoverable barrels were present but with prices bottoming out at $10 a barrel back then the report was dismissed because of the higher cost of horizontal drilling techniques that would be needed, estimated at $20-$40 a barrel.

USGS Release: 3 to 4.3 Billion Barrels of Technically Recoverable Oil Assessed in North Dakota and Montana&#146;s Bakken Formation—25 Times More Than 1995 Estimate— (4/10/2008 2:25:36 PM)

Reston, VA - North Dakota and Montana have an estimated 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil in an area known as the Bakken Formation.

A U.S. Geological Survey assessment, released April 10, shows a 25-fold increase in the amount of oil that can be recovered compared to the agency's 1995 estimate of 151 million barrels of oil.

 

[KissMy]

OK. People, find a chart that shows increasing reserves because of new discoveries. You cannot, because there it doesn't exist. We can temporarily increase supply by pumping more, but that just means the slope will be even steeper when we hit the bottom of the barrel.

Here is the chart that shows increasing reserves / production capacity. It is from the EIA & IEA.

 

[RGR]

How dare you show yet another peak in oil production! Don't you realize that the peak religion has been praying for this stuff to STOP for the past 20 years now! The insanity must stop!

 

[JiggsCasey]

Don't you realize that the peak religion has been praying for this stuff to STOP for the past 20 years now!

Hysterical as you now appear, for principle's sake it's important to note that this above just isn't accurate at all. ... Sad that you've become this predictable. It's easier for you to tell yourself that I "want" it to be true. ... You all eventually resort to it. Almost on queue. You're no different.

I certainly don't wish for this to happen in the least. I love life, and all the little amenities and pleasures our empire affords us. I admire growth, and I love the idea of a bright future for our kids. I hate thinking about the smaller world that the obligatory oil shock is going to bring, and find it all rather heart-breaking.

But at some point -- with each new international entity that "comes out" and admits the condition anyone can plainly see -- every American has to stop lying to him or herself, instead of repeating the same insanity over and over again. Whether you hide behind wild "reserve growth" claims, or hydraulic fracking short-sightedness, or laughable (and ironic) conspiracy theory asserting "artificial price increases" for profit, eventually the story just doesn't bail water any longer. The debate is over. Kinda was years ago. ... Time to get your financial ducks in a row. Think about the benefits of getting very liquid. ... Or at the very least, hedge.

There are 5 stages of grief. Some of us remain mired in the denial and anger stages, others are over here... at acceptance.

Ah well. ... Look at them all crashing in. The Joint Chiefs, the German gov., the IMF, the IEA.... It's coming in waves now, isn't it? Unrelenting. ... Who is it THIS week? ... One of the largest asset managers in the whole damned world.... Spin away:

GMO Quarterly
by Jeremy Grantham, Chief Investment Officer of GMO Capital ($106 billion in assets under management):

Time to Wake Up:
Days of Abundant Resources and Falling Prices Are Over Forever
http://www.gmo.com/websitecontent/JGLetterALL_1Q11.pdf

Summary​

The world is using up its natural resources at an alarming rate, and this has caused a permanent shift in their value. We all need to adjust our behavior to this new Environment. It would help if we did it quickly.

... to Rising Prices​

The 102 years to 2002 saw almost each individual commodity &#8211; both metals and gricultural &#8211; hit all-time lows. Only oil had clearly peeled off in 1974, a precursor of things to come. But since 2002, we have the most remarkable price rise, in real terms, ever recorded, and this, I believe, will go down in the history books. Exhibit 2 shows this watershed event. Until 20 years ago, there were no surprises at all in the sense that great unexpected events like World War I, World War II, and the double in&#64258;ationary oil crises of 1974 and 1979 would cause prices to generally surge; and setbacks like the post-World War I depression and the Great Depression would cause prices to generally collapse. Much as you might expect, except that it all took place around a downward trend. But in the 1990s, things started to act oddly. First, there was a remarkable decline for the 15 or so years to 2002. What description should be added to our exhibit? &#8220;The 1990&#8217;s Surge in Resource Productivity&#8221; might be one. Perhaps it was encouraged by the fall of the Soviet bloc. It was a very important but rather stealthy move, and certainly not one that was much remarked on in investment circles. It was as if lower prices were our divine right. And more to the point, what description do we put on the surge from 2002 until now? It is far bigger than the one caused by World War II, happily without World War III. My own suggestion would be &#8220;The Great Paradigm Shift.&#8221;​

 

[RGR]

Ah well. ... Look at them all crashing in. The Joint Chiefs, the German gov., the IMF, the IEA.... It's coming in waves now, isn't it? Unrelenting. ... Who is it THIS week? ... One of the largest asset managers in the whole damned world.... Spin away:

There you go...parroting again. Try thinking...it will hold you in better stead as we go through yet ANOTHER peak oil.

When you figure out which peak oil is THE peak oil, and whether its one of the old ones, or a newer one in the future, let us know. Perhaps it would be better stated, "When your cut and paste sources figure out....." because certainly a parrot isn't ever going to understand this for themselves.

 

[JiggsCasey]

Ah well. ... Look at them all crashing in. The Joint Chiefs, the German gov., the IMF, the IEA.... It's coming in waves now, isn't it? Unrelenting. ... Who is it THIS week? ... One of the largest asset managers in the whole damned world.... Spin away:

There you go...parroting again. Try thinking...it will hold you in better stead as we go through yet ANOTHER peak oil.

When you figure out which peak oil is THE peak oil, and whether its one of the old ones, or a newer one in the future, let us know. Perhaps it would be better stated, "When your cut and paste sources figure out....." because certainly a parrot isn't ever going to understand this for themselves.

Uh huh.... You're in full desperation mode. But then, if you weren't such an unrivaled dick from the moment you joined, it would be easy to let you off the hook amicably.

Denialist PARROT.

Ah well, here's yet another wave, crashing on your eroding shoreline:

oops...

Demand, not speculation, cited for rising oil prices
Oil price spike: Speculators aren't to blame - chicagotribune.com

High oil prices are here to stay, and they're caused by surging demand and limited new supply, not Wall Street speculators.

That's the message from Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency.

"Speculators are only responding to what is going on in the markets," Birol said. "We don't see enough oil in the markets. The major driver is supply and demand."

Birol said growth in worldwide oil demand is outstripping growth in new supplies by 1 million barrels a day per year.​

add the Chicago Tribune to the ever-expanding list of news agencies acknowledging peak condition... I'm sure Birol secretly knows a "new peak" is just around the corner though, and he's just in on the conspiracy though.

 

[RGR]

When you figure out which peak oil is THE peak oil, and whether its one of the old ones, or a newer one in the future, let us know. Perhaps it would be better stated, "When your cut and paste sources figure out....." because certainly a parrot isn't ever going to understand this for themselves.

Uh huh.... You're in full desperation mode. But then, if you weren't such an unrivaled dick from the moment you joined, it would be easy to let you off the hook amicably.

Good one. We have a parrot who won't even bring over a thinking member of their church, and you want to pretend it's my problem?

High oil prices are here to stay, and they're caused by surging demand and limited new supply, not Wall Street speculators.

That's the message from Fatih Birol, chief economist at the International Energy Agency.
​

Faith also apparently has decided that peak oil was in 2006. And then his organization released the information for fuel production hitting all time highs in 2010. In other words, yet another peak.

So would you say Faith is lying to your church, or is incompetent and doesn't review his own agencies information?

add the Chicago Tribune to the ever-expanding list of news agencies acknowledging peak condition... I'm sure Birol secretly knows a "new peak" is just around the corner though, and he's just in on the conspiracy though.

He said peak was in 2006. Are you claiming that he really hasn't read his own information showing a new peak in 2010? Or did he just throw out this conflicting information to test how ignorant peakers are, seeing which ones are parrots and just spew out the nonsense dejour?

He sure got you, didn't he!

Here is Faith calling peak back in 2006.

Oil prices to keep rising as peak production reached in 2006 - The Irish Times - Fri, Apr 29, 2011

Here is IEA information showing yet ANOTHER peak in 2010.

So which is it parrot? Does Faith lie, or is he incompetent?

You didn't really think even an educated peaker (read, not a parrot or member of your congregation) can escape the raw logic faults of your position? I realize you fall for it naturally, ignorance coming easily to you, and the religious aspects allowing you an endless mantra to repeat to help out your limited memory. Parrots like you love mantra.

Faith should know better.​

 

[JiggsCasey]

ah, the graph that denialist parrots trot out every time.

that's more than the IEA, genius... note the solid green line, which was released last, from the EIA. A line which has slowed to a crawl along the Y axis since 2005, despite and quadrupling increase in price. How much will oil price need to rise for that line to reach 90 million bpd? 95 million? 110 million, as the IEA says we'll need by 2020? ... LOL

We are at the peak. Small spikes here and there due to desperate measures in expanding unconventional fuels mean nothing for disputing the peak of light crude.

Show the forum that table for global light crude production, ... or explain how shale gas/tar sands, etc. will allow us to pass seamlessly into the new paradigm. Chryst, you admitted the problem right here in THIS POST!!! LOL. Meanwhile, the global economy is at the brink. If you can't do either, please stfu and gtfo.

Just wait til those 2Q reports start coming in in July. Look out below!!!!

 

[RGR]

ah, the graph that denialist parrots trot out every time.

that's more than the IEA, genius... note the solid green line, which was released last, from the EIA. A line which has slowed to a crawl along the Y axis since 2005, despite and quadrupling increase in price. How much will oil price need to rise for that line to reach 90 million bpd? 95 million? 110 million, as the IEA says we'll need by 2020? ... LOL

Answer the question parrot. Is Faith incompetent, or does he lie? He is your source, not mine. I doubt the guy has ever picked up a pipe wrench in his life, let alone drilled a horizontal well or found an oilfield or interpreted a seismic line.

Which is it parrot?

We are at the peak.

Sure. Just like all the other peaks. What is funny is that you don't have a clue as to why this one may or may not be different than the other ones.

Show the forum that table for global light crude production, ...

Why parrot? Are you under the mistaken impression that all the gasoline you put in your gas tank, and millions of other drivers put in their gas tanks, comes only from light crude?

or explain how shale gas/tar sands, etc. will allow us to pass seamlessly into the new paradigm.

We are already there parrot. Haven't you noticed? Lets hypothesize for a second that Faith, YOUR reference who I have already shown is either speaking with forked tongue or doesn't even read the information his own organization provides, that Faith and his peak in 2006 is correct.

We are 5 years into our post peak world. I can go down to the corner gas distributor and buy a truck load if I wish. I can burn it in trash barrels in my front yard, and do it for as long as I can afford it. No lack of availability caused by peak. Tractors still plow the land. The big rigs transport lettuce to me from California. Burning diesel. Transoceanic shipping still transoceanic ships stuff. I can get on a plane this afternoon and fly anywhere I wish in the world, without much fear that the plane will run out of fuel, or there won't be any at any airport I land out.

Here is what one of your peak oil prophets claimed would happen within days of peak oil happening.

BLUE: Feature Archive - Special: Here comes the nutcracker - Peak oil in a nutshell, by Jan Lundberg

5 years after it happened (according to Faith), can you explain why the Walmart trucks are still running?

Just wait til those 2Q reports start coming in in July. Look out below!!!!

What will they show? The new peak in 2010 all the more clearly? Will Faith issue a retraction for making the same sort of mistake that peak cultists have been doing for 20 years now? Will he apologize for his mistake?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

If you don't drill for it, then, yes, it is scarce.

 

[JiggsCasey]

Answer the question parrot. Is Faith incompetent, or does he lie? He is your source, not mine. I doubt the guy has ever picked up a pipe wrench in his life, let alone drilled a horizontal well or found an oilfield or interpreted a seismic line.

Which is it parrot?

At this point, I'm fairly convinced you're the most insecure poster in internet forum history. Worse, you don't read well.

He doesn't work for the IEA any longer. He retired. You'd know that if you actually stopped to breathe and read any of the many stories I've posted featuring Fatish Birol. ... Regardless, I have little doubt he's quite competent. Certainly far, far more than goofy you. You award yourself first prize when it comes to the minutiae of drilling technology, but you have shown quite clearly that you have a severely stunted grasp of the overall topic of energy, and energy's symbiotic relationship with the economy. It's really laughable watching your argument morph from "oil fields filling back up" to "technology will save the day" to "shale gas, hooray!!!!" Tool.

So you cover for your inadequacies by flocking to this forum to respond as quickly as you possibly can to insert irrelevant deflection and obfuscation from the direct challenges put to you. I answer your irrelevant questions (for the sake of completeness, if nothing else). You duck from most of mine.

We are at the peak.

Sure. Just like all the other peaks. What is funny is that you don't have a clue as to why this one may or may not be different than the other ones.

Certainly I do. It's YOU that doesn't understand. Chyst, for all your know-it-all blather, you can't even grasp what peak means, as you continue to suggest peak would be some imaginary sharp point on a pyramid. Instead, peak is a rounded-off plateau, somewhat flat at the apex, which we're experiencing now. The decline hasn't really begun in earnest yet. But the vast majority of models insist it IS imminent. The dearth of new discoveries of any significant reserve total certainly supports that model.

Why parrot? Are you under the mistaken impression that all the gasoline you put in your gas tank, and millions of other drivers put in their gas tanks, comes only from light crude?

LOL... straw man, for the win!!!! ... Ah well, if we've learned nothing else from king jackass here, it's that he'll make up a position his debate opponent never uttered, never insinuated, and just PARROT the word "parrot" over and over again. Delicious irony.

or explain how shale gas/tar sands, etc. will allow us to pass seamlessly into the new paradigm.

We are already there parrot. Haven't you noticed? Lets hypothesize for a second that Faith, YOUR reference who I have already shown is either speaking with forked tongue or doesn't even read the information his own organization provides, that Faith and his peak in 2006 is correct.

We are 5 years into our post peak world. I can go down to the corner gas distributor and buy a truck load if I wish. I can burn it in trash barrels in my front yard, and do it for as long as I can afford it. No lack of availability caused by peak. Tractors still plow the land. The big rigs transport lettuce to me from California. Burning diesel. Transoceanic shipping still transoceanic ships stuff. I can get on a plane this afternoon and fly anywhere I wish in the world, without much fear that the plane will run out of fuel, or there won't be any at any airport I land out.

This paragraph has further confirmed what I said above, about you having ZERO idea what you're talking about regarding the plateau of peak. We are NOT 5 years into a "post peak world," you used douche. We are AT the plateau. Overall decline has been staved off by way of desperate measures with unconventional production. Meanwhile, price is up 600% in 12 years. Not sure if your piss-poor mind for economics can grasp what that means for anyone not behind a gated community in Texas, but that's a bit of a problem for the rest of the world.

It is sad watching you rationalize how "well off" you remain here in privileged America. If it's not happening to you, it's not happening anywhere on the planet. LOL.... So typical of Texan. "Let them eat cake!!" ... What a dick.

Meanwhile, food prices have doubled in 3-4 years, and dozens of nations are in revolt over it. I don't think I need to explain to you how the global food conveyor belt is utterly reliant on oil to maintain stasis. Here's a newsflash, isolated little oil brat: MENA is as much about food prices as it is about anything else.

Here is what one of your peak oil prophets claimed would happen within days of peak oil happening.

BLUE: Feature Archive - Special: Here comes the nutcracker - Peak oil in a nutshell, by Jan Lundberg

5 years after it happened (according to Faith), can you explain why the Walmart trucks are still running?

Not familiar with him, and you won't be assigning who I subscribe to for my information. Sorry, desperate poster. It doesn't work that way, even as desperate as you are to control the discussion and assign my curriculum. Awwwww....

Just wait til those 2Q reports start coming in in July. Look out below!!!!

What will they show? The new peak in 2010 all the more clearly? Will Faith issue a retraction for making the same sort of mistake that peak cultists have been doing for 20 years now? Will he apologize for his mistake?

They'll show the full effects of an entire post-Fukushima quarter earnings report. They'll scrub clean the transparency of a world economy that can no longer absorb natural disaster and shrug them off the way it always could when energy was cheap and abundant.

Unfortunately for your dog & pony show here, world events do not support your "nothing to see here" mantra. I know that tightens your tie, and makes you wonder if your game of bullshit might be just about up. But the days of blaming liberal lawmakers for the systemic collapse of the world economy don't seem to bail water any more. Awwww... Must be something a bit deeper.

The EU is falling apart; U.S. states slide towards insolvency; Food cost are skyrocketing; Schools closing; Banks lacking lending capital have to be bailed out (twice); Pensions are increasingly slashed; Violent conflicts are sprouting up all over MENA; nations are gathering to lay the foundation to scrap the dying dollar for oil trade; Saudi is injecting sea water into their biggest fields just to maintain pressure; Libya's 1.7 mbpd is off the table, and Saudi won't (can't) pump more to make up for it... and on and on and on...

And all arrogant, goofy you, an "oil man," can focus on is just how "unaffected" you are -- so far -- here in the heart of the empire. ...

Wow, RGR. You really are a whole big sack of fail. Your argument has disintegrated, and now you're left pretending dozens of international policy-setting entities are all somehow "wrong," and that you know better. ... But, when put to it, you can't actually counter what they're saying... So what do you base that empty arrogance on? LOL!!!! ... you base it on the fact that you're not feeling the pinch yet in happy-land Texas.

Holy crap, do you EVER suck at this.

 

[Baruch Menachem]

Peak oil was several million years ago, when the last of the critters that was turned into oil was turned into oil.

Same with peak coal.

We know we are using a non renewable resource and as each gallon is burned, we have less, and that getting the next incremental gallon will be that much harder.

The goal is to use the resource in the most responsible manner. Which means government keeps their mitts off.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Peak oil was several million years ago, when the last of the critters that was turned into oil was turned into oil.

Same with peak coal.

We know we are using a non renewable resource and as each gallon is burned, we have less, and that getting the next incremental gallon will be that much harder.

The goal is to use the resource in the most responsible manner. Which means government keeps their mitts off.

You might want to keep up on current events, the space program has totally demolished the notion that hydrocarbons come from dead dinosaurs because they even found lakes of the stuff on Saturn's Moon Titan