Noted global warmist alarmist in 1978

[Quantum Windbag]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DsdWTBNyvX0"]Schneider vs. Schneider - YouTube[/ame]

Strange, I thought no reputable scientist believed there was going to be an ice age.

 

[KissMy]

Long before Dr. Holdren came President Obama’s science adviser “Science Czar”, he warned of a coming ice age. In the 1971 essay, “Overpopulation and the Potential for Ecocide,” Dr. Holdren and his co-author, the ecologist Paul Ehrlich, warned of a coming ice age.

 

[KissMy]

NASA scientist James E. Hansen, who has publicly criticized the Bush administration for dragging its feet on climate change and labeled skeptics of man-made global warming as distracting “court jesters,” appears in a 1971 Washington Post article that warns of an impending ice age within 50 years.

“U.S. Scientist Sees New Ice Age Coming,” blares the headline of the July 9, 1971, article, which cautions readers that the world “could be as little as 50 or 60 years away from a disastrous new ice age, a leading atmospheric scientist predicts.”

 

[skookerasbil]

nobody cares

 

[editec]

Strange, I thought no reputable scientist believed there was going to be an ice age.

Who is this guy?

 

[KissMy]

National Academy of Sciences Issued Report Warning of Coming Ice Age in 1975

Newsweek: “A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.” - Newsweek - April 28, 1975 “The Cooling World”

 

[KissMy]

Rasool S., & Schneider S."Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols - Effects of Large Increases on Global Climate", Science, vol.173, 9 July 1971, p.138-141 – Excerpt: 'The rate of temperature decrease is augmented with increasing aerosol content. An increase by only a factor of 4 in global aerosol background concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5 deg. K. If sustained over a period of several years, such a temperature decrease over the whole globe is believed to be sufficient to trigger an ice age.” Schneider was still promoting the coming “ice age” in 1978. (See: Unearthed 1970's video: Global warming activist Stephen Schneider caught on 1978 TV show 'In Search Of...The Coming Ice Age' – September 20, 2009) By the 1980's, Schneider reversed himself and began touting man-made global warming. See: "The rate of [global warming] change is so fast that I don't hesitate to call it potentially catastrophic for ecosystems,” Schneider said on UK TV in 1990

 

[KissMy]

1975 New York Times: "Climate Changes Called Ominous,", June 19, 1975 - Harold M. Schmeck, - p. 31. Excerpt: “The most drastic potential change considered in the new report is an abrupt end to the present interglacial period of relative warmth that governed the planet's climate for the past 10,000 years. [...] The report also noted that periods of benign climate comparable to the present are unusual and have existed for about 8 percent of the last 700,000 years.”

1974 New York Times: "Climate Changes Endanger World's Food Output,", August 8, 1974 – Harold M. Schmeck - p. 35. Excerpt: A recent meeting of climate experts in Bonn, West Germany, produced the unanimous conclusion that the change in global weather patterns pose a severe threat to agriculture that could lead to major crop failures and mass starvation. [...] The drop [in global temps] since the 1940s has only been half a degree, but some scientists believe this is enough to trigger changes that could have important effects on the world's weather and agriculture.

1975 New York Times: "Scientists Ask Why World Climate is Changing, Major Cooling May Be Ahead", May 21, 1975 – By Walter Sullivan - Excerpt: Sooner or later a major cooling of the climate is widely considered inevitable. Hints that is may already begun are evident. The drop in mean temperatures since 1950 in the Northern Hemisphere has been sufficient, for example, to shorten Britain's growing season for crops by two weeks.

 

[Saigon]

These are media articles, not scientific studies. A survey of peer reviewed scientific papers from 1965 to 1979 show that few papers predicted global cooling (7 in total). Significantly more papers (42 in total) predicted global warming (Peterson 2008). The large majority of climate research in the 1970s predicted the Earth would warm as a consequence of CO2. Rather than 1970s scientists predicting cooling, the opposite is the case.

Quite often, the justification for the few global cooling predictions in the 1970s is overlooked. Probably the most famous such prediction was Rasool and Schneider (1971):

"An increase by only a factor of 4 in global aerosol background concentration may be sufficient to reduce the surface temperature by as much as 3.5°K."

Yes, their global cooling projection was based on a quadrupling of atmospheric aerosol concentration. This wasn't an entirely unrealistic scenario - after all, sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions were accelerating quite rapidly up until the early 1970s (Figure 2). These emissions caused various environmental problems, and as a result, a number of countries, including the USA, enacted SO2 limits through Clean Air Acts. As a result, not only did atmospheric aerosol concentrations not quadruple, they declined starting in the late 1970s.

What were climate scientists predicting in the 1970s?

 

[Politico]

Strange, I thought no reputable scientist believed there was going to be an ice age.

Who is this guy?

No one. It's 35 years later and we are still waiting.

 

[IanC]

ten years from now there will be a lot of articles stating that scientists werent actually predicting global warming, it was just the media blowing things out of proportion.

 

[IanC]

Strange, I thought no reputable scientist believed there was going to be an ice age.

Who is this guy?

No one. It's 35 years later and we are still waiting.

Stephen Schneider? I dont think the AGU thinks he is 'no one'.

 

[Politico]

Never heard of him.

 

[Saigon]

A lot of these threads are about people not being able to figure out the science.

And then are others - like this one - which are about people not wanting to figure out the science.

 

[editec]

Do these deniers really think if they can convince us of something that isn't true (that the world of science thought an ice age was coming back in the 70's) that somehow that will convince us that there is nothing going on with the climate now?

Apparently they do.

Do they NOT understand that many here were adults in the 70s and we therefore KNOW that the world's scientists did NOT think the world was headed into an ice age?

Talk about your BIG LIE technique!

They're not just trying to rewrite history, they're trying to convince those of us who were THERE, that we don't remember what happened.

What hubris!

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Climate "Science" always follows the money: Cooling in the 70's, warming climate change today

 

[Saigon]

Climate "Science" always follows the money: Cooling in the 70's, warming climate change today

Brilliant analysis, Frank - on a thread where it has just been proven that only 7 papers published in the 1970's actually backed the cooling theory.

You're a smart guy, alright.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Climate "Science" always follows the money: Cooling in the 70's, warming climate change today

Brilliant analysis, Frank - on a thread where it has just been proven that only 7 papers published in the 1970's actually backed the cooling theory.

You're a smart guy, alright.

So AGW science is determined by the weight of papers supporting one side or the other?

I thought the Eugenicist the Old Rock is always droning on about "Proved" AGW in the 1850's?

 

[Saigon]

Frank -

Try and focus. Seriously.

This thread is supposedly about how many scientists were predicting an ice age in the 1970's.

Actually, it was a media-driven scenario - only 7 scientific papers ever suggested such a thing.

During the same period, dozens more predicted climate change as we now know it.

 

[Old Rocks]

National Academy of Sciences Issued Report Warning of Coming Ice Age in 1975

Newsweek: “A major climatic change would force economic and social adjustments on a worldwide scale,” warns a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences, “because the global patterns of food production and population that have evolved are implicitly dependent on the climate of the present century.” - Newsweek - April 28, 1975 “The Cooling World”

Crap. No, they did not. And the Newsweek article was also crap. That you post this crap shows that you are either woefully ignorant or liar.

I read the report the year it was published. And what it said was that we did not have enough data or understanding at the time to make an accurate assessment of what effects we were having on the climate.
http://www.wmconnolley.org.uk/sci/iceage/nas-1975.html

From the start of the Introduction:

"Climatic change has been a subject of intellectual interest for many years. However, there are now more compelling reasons for its study: the growing awareness that our economic and social stability is profoundly influenced by climate and that man's activities themselves may be capable of influencing the climate in possibly undesirable ways. The climates of the earth have always been changing, and they will doubtless continue to do so in the future. How large these future changes will be, and where and how rapidly they will occur, we do not know".

However, by 1983, the tone was quite differant.

http://scilib.ucsd.edu/sio/hist/nierenberg_early-climate-change-consensus.pdf

To summarize, we have tried but have been unable to find any overlooked or
underestimated physical effects that could reduce the currently estimated global
warmings [sic] due to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 to negligible proportions
or reverse them altogether. However, we believe it quite possible that the capacity
of the intermediate waters of the oceans to absorb heat could delay the estimated
warming by several decades. It appears that the warming will eventually
occur, and the associated regional climatic changes so important to the assessment
of socioeconomic consequences may well be significant, but unfortunately the
latter cannot yet be adequately projected.21