CDZ North Korea Strategy

[jwoodie]

Despite all the talking heads' anxiety about a war with North Korea, the real strategy is to cause regime change from within (probably a military coup). Kim Jong Un will try to hold onto power by any means, but his generals are not going to commit suicide on his behalf by inviting a full military response by the U.S.

Instead, the U.S. (and China) are ratcheting up pressure on the NK leader to take some action which will provide his generals with a coalescing excuse to remove him from power. After this occurs, these generals will agree to the reunification of a nonmilitarized Korea (on the condition that they receive full pardons). This will allow the U.S. to remove its troops from Korea and end any threat to China from Japan having to create its own nuclear deterrent.

 

[AsianTrumpSupporter]

Sadly, I don't see an easy way out of this one even with China finally getting on board now that North Korea has nukes. It's ruling, corrupt government and military likely won't give up power voluntarily.

Even a well-planned, strategic, preemptive strike (which I'm not opposed to) could still result in huge casualties for American military, South Korea, Japan, and even China if they get involved.

If there's any way to peacefully reunite the two Koreas or at to at least turn North Korea into a capitalist democracy, I'm all for it. Otherwise, North Korea may have to be contained until it implodes.

 

[jwoodie]

Sadly, I don't see an easy way out of this one even with China finally getting on board now that North Korea has nukes. It's ruling, corrupt government and military likely won't give up power voluntarily.

Even a well-planned, strategic, preemptive strike (which I'm not opposed to) could still result in huge casualties for American military, South Korea, Japan, and even China if they get involved.

If there's any way to peacefully reunite the two Koreas or at to at least turn North Korea into a capitalist democracy, I'm all for it. Otherwise, North Korea may have to be contained until it implodes.

Do you think the NK generals are willing to commit suicide for their leader?

 

[AsianTrumpSupporter]

Sadly, I don't see an easy way out of this one even with China finally getting on board now that North Korea has nukes. It's ruling, corrupt government and military likely won't give up power voluntarily.

Even a well-planned, strategic, preemptive strike (which I'm not opposed to) could still result in huge casualties for American military, South Korea, Japan, and even China if they get involved.

If there's any way to peacefully reunite the two Koreas or at to at least turn North Korea into a capitalist democracy, I'm all for it. Otherwise, North Korea may have to be contained until it implodes.

Do you think the NK generals are willing to commit suicide for their leader?

I honestly don't know, but I would guess that most of them (especially at the top) are survivalists and are just looking to save/cover their own ass. I've heard that many in the military brass don't respect Kim Jong-un since he's so young and untested, but Kim may have purged many of those guys by now.

 

[jwoodie]

I predict a coup by the end of this year.

 

[AsianTrumpSupporter]

I predict a coup by the end of this year.

Possible. On a good note, some of the more recent North Korean defectors have noted that North Korea's liberal narrative about South Korea being full of homeless people is crumbling thanks to smuggled, contraband South Korean movies/TV shows.

It appears that word is getting in about how much of a leftist hellhole North Korea really is.

 

[Manonthestreet]

What if China were to say we'll trade ya North Korea for Taiwan....

 

[jwoodie]

What if China were to say we'll trade ya North Korea for Taiwan....

Good question. All China wants for Taiwan is that it be recognized as a part of China, albeit a free market enterprise zone like Hong Kong. This symbolic act would be well worth removing North Korea as a nuclear threat to its neighbors and the U.S.