NOAA's Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem

[Old Rocks]

There is no evidence that weather is becoming more erratic or more extreme.

What bullshit you spew. Here are people whose business depends on understanding the dangers of increasing extreme weather events.

Extreme Weather Adaptation & Risk Mitigation

With the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, adaptation measures and risk mitigation solutions have become more crucial than ever.

www.munichre.com

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Sprawling Heat Dome Could Smash June Records In Northeast, Midwest, Including 100s In New York, Boston​

​

Because I accidentally left the SUV running all night!

 

[Old Rocks]

View attachment 1113209

Sea ice comes and goes yearly, does little to sea level. However the ice on land is what is critical to sea level rise. And that is melting;

"The mass of the Antarctic ice sheet has changed over the last decades. Research based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites (2002-2017) and GRACE Follow-On (since 2018 - ) indicates that between 2002 and 2023, Antarctica shed approximately 150 gigatons of ice per year, causing global sea level to rise by 0.4 millimeters per year."

NASA Scientific Visualization Studio | Antarctic Ice Mass Loss 2002-2025

The mass of the Antarctic ice sheet has changed over the last decades. Research based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites (2002-2017) and GRACE Follow-On (since 2018 - ).

svs.gsfc.nasa.gov

 

[Old Rocks]

Because I accidentally left the SUV running all night!

Typical dumb ass response from a willfully ignorant individual. Really must you constantly post your ignorance and stupidity for the whole world to see. 430 ppm CO2 at present is not a joke.

 

[ReinyDays]

What bullshit you spew. Here are people whose business depends on understanding the dangers of increasing extreme weather events.

Extreme Weather Adaptation & Risk Mitigation

With the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, adaptation measures and risk mitigation solutions have become more crucial than ever.

www.munichre.com

You're just cherry-picking experts who you agree with ... instead of actually educating yourself ... pretty stupid if you're asking me ...

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Typical dumb ass response from a willfully ignorant individual. Really must you constantly post your ignorance and stupidity for the whole world to see. 430 ppm CO2 at present is not a joke.

Show us again any lab work at all linking a 130ppm increase in CO2 to a 1.5F increase in temperature.

Ready

Set

Go!

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Sea ice comes and goes yearly, does little to sea level. However the ice on land is what is critical to sea level rise. And that is melting;

"The mass of the Antarctic ice sheet has changed over the last decades. Research based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites (2002-2017) and GRACE Follow-On (since 2018 - ) indicates that between 2002 and 2023, Antarctica shed approximately 150 gigatons of ice per year, causing global sea level to rise by 0.4 millimeters per year."

NASA Scientific Visualization Studio | Antarctic Ice Mass Loss 2002-2025

The mass of the Antarctic ice sheet has changed over the last decades. Research based on observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites (2002-2017) and GRACE Follow-On (since 2018 - ).

svs.gsfc.nasa.gov

The ice over the subterrain volcanoes is melting

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

What bullshit you spew. Here are people whose business depends on understanding the dangers of increasing extreme weather events.

Extreme Weather Adaptation & Risk Mitigation

With the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, adaptation measures and risk mitigation solutions have become more crucial than ever.

www.munichre.com

An insurance company believes you should pay more for insurance.

I've never seen better proof in my entire life.

DURR

 

[Foxfyre]

I post this because a leftist child in the forum think this is fake news when the person who made this post is well qualified as he hold a PHD in Atmosphere Science, Teaches Meteorology at the University of Washington, heads the Climate Modeling group in the Northwest, publishes papers on this very subject, lobbies for a better run NOAA....., from Wikipedia is an excerpt:

Clifford F. Mass is an American professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. His research focuses on numerical weather modeling and prediction, the role of topography in the evolution of weather systems, regional climate modeling, and the weather of the Pacific Northwest. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society, past-president of the Puget Sound American Meteorological Society chapter, and past chair of the College of the Environment College Council.

Before joining the faculty of the University of Washington, Mass was a professor of meteorology at the University of Maryland from 1978 to 1981."Cliff Mass - Wikipedia" He leads the University of Washington Mesoscale Analysis and Forecasting Group and is the chief scientist of the Northwest Modeling Consortium. He has published over 120 articles in peer-reviewed scientific venues, and served on the board of over a dozen regional and national meteorological committees, conferences, and scientific journals."Cliff Mass - Wikipedia"

LINK

The NOAA is bloated, inefficient and in dire need of improvement.

===============

Cliff Mass weather blog

NOAA's Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem​

May 8, 2025

Excerpt:

Many weather scientists have noted that NOAA's global weather prediction model, the GFS, is now in fourth place, behind the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians.

This is pretty depressing considering the U.S. spends more on weather prediction research and development than all those groups combined. This NOAA global model is the foundation of U.S. operational weather prediction efforts; thus, Americans are experiencing inferior weather forecasts as a result.

LINK

NOAA has been infested with the same leftist ideological religionists that all other government agencies have been infested with. Science suffers or becomes bogus entirely when it is replaced by ideology, most especially when nobody is allowed to challenge or question the 'religion' they are preaching.

Most of us still capable of critical thinking eventually catch on when their scientific models fail again and again and again to produce what they predict. Then, instead of questioning the models and conclusions, they keep moving the goal posts on down the road and religiously hang on to the same mantras and dogma.

And no scientists who might come up with different conclusions are allowed to participate in any policy recommendations.

It's nuts.

 

[ReinyDays]

It's nuts.

It's the United Nations !!! ...

 

[g5000]

There is no evidence that weather is becoming more erratic or more extreme.

"Smash June Records" is the definition of extreme!

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

"Smash June Records" is the definition of extreme!

Why?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

What bullshit you spew. Here are people whose business depends on understanding the dangers of increasing extreme weather events.

Extreme Weather Adaptation & Risk Mitigation

With the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, adaptation measures and risk mitigation solutions have become more crucial than ever.

www.munichre.com

China ignores all this fake science and focuses on advancing their civilization

 

[Foxfyre]

It's the United Nations !!! ...

The United Nations has been infected with leftist dogma/ideology/religionists for decades now. But nowhere has science been more corrupted and compromised i.e. replaced by ideology than in organizations like the NOAA.

 

[ReinyDays]

The United Nations has been infected with leftist dogma/ideology/religionists for decades now. But nowhere has science been more corrupted and compromised i.e. replaced by ideology than in organizations like the NOAA.

Why does ideology matter for tomorrow's weather? ... or fish-counts in the Pacific Ocean ...

Is it you don't understand the science involved so it must be witchcraft religion? ...

Here's the basis of meteorology ... point to where it's been corrupted:

We can't even integrate this, how the hell can it be corrupted? ... the science illiteracy here is amazing ...

 

[Foxfyre]

Why does ideology matter for tomorrow's weather? ... or fish-counts in the Pacific Ocean ...

Is it you don't understand the science involved so it must be witchcraft religion? ...

Here's the basis of meteorology ... point to where it's been corrupted:

We can't even integrate this, how the hell can it be corrupted? ... the science illiteracy here is amazing ...

Ideology matters when it replaces science. Ideology matters when it becomes the basis of policy rather than solid scientific (or other reasoned) processes.

Religious zeal does not have to be based on a supernatural deity or deities. Climate ideologists have made a religion of what they call climate science which, as the OP observes, has become seriously flawed if it is science at all.

As my sig line states, science that cannot be challenged or questioned is not science but becomes dogma.

 

[Sunsettommy]

"Smash June Records" is the definition of extreme!

LOL a WEATHER event which happens everyday.

There is no long term trend for extreme weather events.

 

[Sunsettommy]

And just how are we going to do that when the present President is doing everything he can to relegate real science to the past in our nation?

NO that is YOUR lie you are pressing, Trump wants to remove the politics from science research and have researchers regain their independence that was taken away from leftist climate cultists like Dr. Mann, Hansen and the full time grifter Gore.

Here is the article explaining this that you will not read but other better people will,

Why Trump‘s ‘Gold Standard’ Executive Order is Essential to Restoring Truth in Science​

LINK

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It is a return to producing FALSIFIABLE published research, not barrage of modeling scenarios that is tuned to fit the prevailing paradigm which is normally called pseudoscience.

 

[Sunsettommy]

So he is critical of the bureaucracy of NOAA. That is how you improve the ability of scientific endeavours. However to quote Dr. Mass as a critic of current knowledge regarding AGW is laughable, from your own link;

"Mass has stated publicly that he shares the scientific consensus that global warming is real and that human activity is a major cause of warming trend in the late 20th and 21st centuries. According to Mass, "Global warming is an extraordinarily serious issue, and scientists have a key role to play in communicating what is known and what is not about this critical issue." He has been critical of the Paris Climate accord for not going far enough to address the negative impacts of climate change. Mass has also expressed concern when media outlets and environmental organizations have made, in his opinion, exaggerated claims about the current impacts of climate change. Mass has questioned statements of climate change as the cause of specific weather events. For example, Mass concluded that global warming was not a central factor in the 2021 Western North America heat wave. The authors of a World Weather Attribution report asserting the connection criticized Mass's analysis of their work."

Cliff Mass - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Odd that you did not notice that paragraph. Maybe you were depending on no one actually reading your link?

I am well aware of what I posted, what YOU don't seem to realize that it was Dr. Mass and his team who saw the incredible heat wave coming days ahead and make good predictions of what it was to come then made a clear case afterwards that it had NOTHING to do with the stupid AGW conjecture at all but was caused by a rare convergence of THREE air masses that descended in the region, I was right in the middle of the heat wave which was astonishing and record breaker which hasn't been close to happening ever since now 4 years later it is boringly average.

It was posted through his blog the whole time before during and the aftermath.

He is a lukewarmer which is similar to Anthony Watts position.

 

[Sunsettommy]

What bullshit you spew. Here are people whose business depends on understanding the dangers of increasing extreme weather events.

Extreme Weather Adaptation & Risk Mitigation

With the increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, adaptation measures and risk mitigation solutions have become more crucial than ever.

www.munichre.com

What an embarrassing propaganda crap that was, here is straight from official data showing no such increase developing:

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Storminess has not gone up, and there’s been no increase in hurricane strength or frequency … no “emergency” there.

First, the strength. LINK

And here is the global hurricane frequency, both for all hurricanes and for the strongest hurricanes.

There is much longer evidence to back that up. Here are the records of all hurricanes (left) and major hurricanes (right) that came ashore in the US in the last 150 years … NO increase. SOURCE: Nature magazine.

And here are the numbers of Pacific typhoons (hurricanes) from the Japanese Meteorological Agency.

And here are a century and a half of records of the number of landfalling hurricanes in Florida.

Finally, here are the declining numbers of both strong and average cyclones (Southern Hemisphere hurricanes) in Australian waters, from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM).

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And here is the Rutgers Snow Labatory’s snow extent data from 1972 to April 2023 … basically, no change.

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Regarding heat, very hot days in the US (over 100°F, or 38°C) were much higher in the 1930s than at any other time in the last 125 years.

But if you want to worry about heat waves, please get back to me when the heat waves are worse than those of the 1930s, well before the large increase in CO2 …

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Strong tornadoes in the US are steadily decreasing over the last 72 years.

And the same is true of weaker tornadoes … decreasing.

LINK

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I have a lot more to show how bad you are in promoting lies and propaganda, but this is enough for normal rational people to understand there is no climate emergency at all.