NOAA's Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem

[Sunsettommy]

I post this because a leftist child in the forum think this is fake news when the person who made this post is well qualified as he hold a PHD in Atmosphere Science, Teaches Meteorology at the University of Washington, heads the Climate Modeling group in the Northwest, publishes papers on this very subject, lobbies for a better run NOAA....., from Wikipedia is an excerpt:

Clifford F. Mass is an American professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. His research focuses on numerical weather modeling and prediction, the role of topography in the evolution of weather systems, regional climate modeling, and the weather of the Pacific Northwest. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society, past-president of the Puget Sound American Meteorological Society chapter, and past chair of the College of the Environment College Council.

Before joining the faculty of the University of Washington, Mass was a professor of meteorology at the University of Maryland from 1978 to 1981."Cliff Mass - Wikipedia" He leads the University of Washington Mesoscale Analysis and Forecasting Group and is the chief scientist of the Northwest Modeling Consortium. He has published over 120 articles in peer-reviewed scientific venues, and served on the board of over a dozen regional and national meteorological committees, conferences, and scientific journals."Cliff Mass - Wikipedia"

LINK

The NOAA is bloated, inefficient and in dire need of improvement.

===============

Cliff Mass weather blog

NOAA's Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem​

May 8, 2025

Excerpt:

Many weather scientists have noted that NOAA's global weather prediction model, the GFS, is now in fourth place, behind the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians.

This is pretty depressing considering the U.S. spends more on weather prediction research and development than all those groups combined. This NOAA global model is the foundation of U.S. operational weather prediction efforts; thus, Americans are experiencing inferior weather forecasts as a result.

LINK

 

[EvilEyeFleegle]

I post this because a leftist child in the forum think this is fake news when the person who made this post is well qualified as he hold a PHD in Atmosphere Science, Teaches Meteorology at the University of Washington, heads the Climate Modeling group in the Northwest, publishes papers on this very subject, lobbies for a better run NOAA....., from Wikipedia is an excerpt:

Clifford F. Mass is an American professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. His research focuses on numerical weather modeling and prediction, the role of topography in the evolution of weather systems, regional climate modeling, and the weather of the Pacific Northwest. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society, past-president of the Puget Sound American Meteorological Society chapter, and past chair of the College of the Environment College Council.

Before joining the faculty of the University of Washington, Mass was a professor of meteorology at the University of Maryland from 1978 to 1981."Cliff Mass - Wikipedia" He leads the University of Washington Mesoscale Analysis and Forecasting Group and is the chief scientist of the Northwest Modeling Consortium. He has published over 120 articles in peer-reviewed scientific venues, and served on the board of over a dozen regional and national meteorological committees, conferences, and scientific journals."Cliff Mass - Wikipedia"

LINK

The NOAA is bloated, inefficient and in dire need of improvement.

===============

Cliff Mass weather blog

NOAA's Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem​

May 8, 2025

Excerpt:

Many weather scientists have noted that NOAA's global weather prediction model, the GFS, is now in fourth place, behind the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians.

This is pretty depressing considering the U.S. spends more on weather prediction research and development than all those groups combined. This NOAA global model is the foundation of U.S. operational weather prediction efforts; thus, Americans are experiencing inferior weather forecasts as a result.

LINK

Wow..whole new level of disingenuous:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/climate/trump-noaa-budget-cuts

The Trump administration intends to eliminate the research arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, close all weather and climate labs and eviscerate its budget along with several other NOAA offices, according to internal documents obtained by CNN.
The documents describe the administration’s budget proposal for 2026, but indicate the administration expects the agency to enact the changes immediately.
The cuts would devastate weather and climate research as weather is becoming more erratic, extreme and costly. It would cripple the US industries — including agriculture — that depend on free, accurate weather and climate data and expert analysis. It could also halt research on deadly weather, including severe storms and tornadoes.
The administration intends to make significant cuts to education, grants, research and climate-related programs in NOAA, the plan says, which the administration believes “are misaligned with the … expressed will of the American people.”

 

[Sunsettommy]

Your source says this:

The Trump administration intends to eliminate the research arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, close all weather and climate labs and eviscerate its budget along with several other NOAA offices, according to internal documents obtained by CNN.

But looking for the documents in the article fails to find them thus an unsupported claim and likely false.

Meanwhile Dr. covered this in some detail in an earlier post where he shows the NWS is here to stay despite the LYING claims by the leftist media, it is subject to personnel cuts and little else.

Stop being gullible!

=====

The Seattle Times Claims About the Termination of the National Weather Service Are False​

April 5, 2025

Excerpt:

The Seattle Times Climate Lab stories are often sloppy and incorrect, with the article in today's paper a good example of poor journalism, with politicized, error-filled claims.

The headline on a front page story today asks whether "this story is a goodbye to the National Weather Service..."?

LINK

 

[EvilEyeFleegle]

Your source says this:



But looking for the documents in the article fails to find them thus an unsupported claim and likely false.

Meanwhile Dr. covered this in some detail in an earlier post where he shows the NWS is here to stay despite the LYING claims by the leftist media, it is subject to personnel cuts and little else.

Stop being gullible!

=====

The Seattle Times Claims About the Termination of the National Weather Service Are False​

April 5, 2025

Excerpt:

The Seattle Times Climate Lab stories are often sloppy and incorrect, with the article in today's paper a good example of poor journalism, with politicized, error-filled claims.

The headline on a front page story today asks whether "this story is a goodbye to the National Weather Service..."?

LINK

I did not say the NWS is being terminated.

I am saying that the models they depend on come from NOAA and that will be flawed and sometimes subject to inaccuracies--and that the reasons for that will be lack of cogent data and out-dated forecasting models.
That I lay on Trump.

If you cannot find anything about this..I can but pity your search engine skills~

Trump administration's proposed NOAA cuts threaten decades-long CO2 data collection, scientist says

Charles David Keeling first documented how the gas buildup in the atmosphere contributes to the warming planet. His son says proposed cuts to NOAA threaten critical scientific research.

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

The cuts would devastate weather and climate research as weather is becoming more erratic, extreme and costly.

There is no evidence that weather is becoming more erratic or more extreme.

 

[ReinyDays]

Go outside and look at the clouds ... that'll tell you tomorrow's weather ... if you're experienced and trained for such artistry ... alas, this is a technique largely lost ... it was mostly illiterates in an illiterate society who were tasked to this duty ... nothing was written down ...

Today we have math and statistics and I found this little blurb that goes into some details on how the NWS uses all this "Mathematics and Statistics of Weather Forecasting" -- National Academies -- n.d. ... not too deep for a high schooler ... pretty easy to see all the problems ...

My only disagreement is characterizing the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians as anything but shit ... okay, the GFS is the worst of a bad lot ... we all know this ... at the end of the forecast cycle, there will be a meteorologist with training and experience to sort everything out into a cohesive forecast package ... published every 6 hours ...

6 hours isn't a lot of time to run these four models plus a few more, interface with nearby weather offices to compare results, then interpret results and type out five or ten reports the public is waiting for ...

Bottom line:
24-hour forecasts are usually very good ...
48-hour forecasts are kind good ...
72-hour forecasts are barely useful ...
Past this, try flipping a coin ...

Better computers help some ... but not as much as better radar and better satellites ... you know ... more government money ... just keep printing the stuff ... what could go wrong? ...

 

[Sunsettommy]

I did not say the NWS is being terminated.

I am saying that the models they depend on come from NOAA and that will be flawed and sometimes subject to inaccuracies--and that the reasons for that will be lack of cogent data and out-dated forecasting models.
That I lay on Trump.

If you cannot find anything about this..I can but pity your search engine skills~

Trump administration's proposed NOAA cuts threaten decades-long CO2 data collection, scientist says

Charles David Keeling first documented how the gas buildup in the atmosphere contributes to the warming planet. His son says proposed cuts to NOAA threaten critical scientific research.

www.cbsnews.com

Once again you fall for the misleading media claims as the problem has been going on YEARS, Trump didn't propose anything about the NOAA until this year.

It is clear you didn't read Dr. Mass post about the modeling problem which isn't about the incoming data, you are not really interested in understanding the problem as you are into partisan politics.

Quoting someone who understand this far better, Dr. Mass writes:

"NOAA global predictions have a severe "drop out" problem in which there are sharp, precipitous declines in forecast skill. Major declines in skill not shared by other major weather prediction centers.

Let me show you.

Below are the skills of various modeling systems from April over the northern hemisphere.

It evaluates the ability of models to get things right in the middle of the troposphere...around 18,000 ft (500 hPa pressure)--for a day 6 forecast. 1 indicated perfect score. Above about .8 the forecast is quite useful. Below ~.65 not so much.

The best forecast is the European Center (red line), while the US model (black line) is generally much less skillful.

Note that sometimes the US model skill drops like a rock to below .7 and on one date to below .6. These are drop outs...and represent severe loss of skill.

Note that the European model almost never does the same."

===========

The problem are the bad models which needs to be replaced to improve its forecast skill.

 

[0311]

I post this because a leftist child in the forum think this is fake news when the person who made this post is well qualified as he hold a PHD in Atmosphere Science, Teaches Meteorology at the University of Washington, heads the Climate Modeling group in the Northwest, publishes papers on this very subject, lobbies for a better run NOAA....., from Wikipedia is an excerpt:

Clifford F. Mass is an American professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. His research focuses on numerical weather modeling and prediction, the role of topography in the evolution of weather systems, regional climate modeling, and the weather of the Pacific Northwest. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society, past-president of the Puget Sound American Meteorological Society chapter, and past chair of the College of the Environment College Council.

Before joining the faculty of the University of Washington, Mass was a professor of meteorology at the University of Maryland from 1978 to 1981."Cliff Mass - Wikipedia" He leads the University of Washington Mesoscale Analysis and Forecasting Group and is the chief scientist of the Northwest Modeling Consortium. He has published over 120 articles in peer-reviewed scientific venues, and served on the board of over a dozen regional and national meteorological committees, conferences, and scientific journals."Cliff Mass - Wikipedia"

LINK

The NOAA is bloated, inefficient and in dire need of improvement.

===============

Cliff Mass weather blog

NOAA's Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem​

May 8, 2025

Excerpt:

Many weather scientists have noted that NOAA's global weather prediction model, the GFS, is now in fourth place, behind the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians.

This is pretty depressing considering the U.S. spends more on weather prediction research and development than all those groups combined. This NOAA global model is the foundation of U.S. operational weather prediction efforts; thus, Americans are experiencing inferior weather forecasts as a result.

LINK

Well maybe if mush fired all those people this would have happened. You fire the wrong shit happens

 

[Sunsettommy]

Well maybe if mush fired all those people this would have happened. You fire the wrong shit happens

Who is mush and the firings were badly handled, most of the them have since been rehired.

Dr. Mass posted about it on his blog.

 

[1srelluc]

Bottom line:
24-hour forecasts are usually very good ...
48-hour forecasts are kind good ...
72-hour forecasts are barely useful ...
Past this, try flipping a coin ...

You remember Willard Scott?

Willard Scott - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

We were at a BBQ at his place one afternoon and he told me basically the same thing.

24 hrs used the the standard extended forecast and he told me they kept extending it for ratings for the local DC stations.

Now it's up to 10 days!.....When is the last time any 10-day forecast was proven to be accurate in the Springtime?

 

[0311]

Who is mush and the firings were badly handled, most of the them have since been rehired.

Dr. Mass posted about it on his blog.

Musk. He went hog wild firing experts. His mass firing are endangering public safety.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Musk. He went hog wild firing experts. His mass firing are endangering public safety.

No that is a politics saying it, most of them have been rehired and back to work.

I do agree the firings were dumb as it was not based on a reasonable plan to fix the problems of the organization.

 

[The Sage of Main Street]

Musk. He went hog wild firing experts. His mass firing are endangering public safety.

Pompous Poopyheads

Experts endanger everything they opinionate on.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Wow..whole new level of disingenuous:

https://www.cnn.com/2025/04/11/climate/trump-noaa-budget-cuts

The Trump administration intends to eliminate the research arm of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, close all weather and climate labs and eviscerate its budget along with several other NOAA offices, according to internal documents obtained by CNN.
The documents describe the administration’s budget proposal for 2026, but indicate the administration expects the agency to enact the changes immediately.
The cuts would devastate weather and climate research as weather is becoming more erratic, extreme and costly. It would cripple the US industries — including agriculture — that depend on free, accurate weather and climate data and expert analysis. It could also halt research on deadly weather, including severe storms and tornadoes.
The administration intends to make significant cuts to education, grants, research and climate-related programs in NOAA, the plan says, which the administration believes “are misaligned with the … expressed will of the American people.”

 

[g5000]

There is no evidence that weather is becoming more erratic or more extreme.

Sprawling Heat Dome Could Smash June Records In Northeast, Midwest, Including 100s In New York, Boston​

​

 

[g5000]

View attachment 1113209

Fact Check: Cherry-picked Antarctic ice data does not disprove climate change​

“Antarctic sea ice extent is 17% higher today than it was in 1979. Ice doesn’t lie, but climate scientists do,” the text reads.

An NSIDC spokesperson told Reuters via email that Antarctic sea ice extent on Dec. 24, 1979, was 7.38 million square kilometres, and on Dec. 24, 2024, it was 8.28 million square kilometres. This is an increase of 12.2%.

However, NSIDC data also show that there was more Antarctic sea ice on the majority of days in 1979 compared with days in 2024.

Experts told Reuters the social media posts cherry-pick specific dates that fail to account for the natural variability of Antarctic sea ice, which does not follow a simple, linear pattern of retreat or expansion that tracks with overall climate warming.
.
[snip]
.
“It would be a bit like saying that because a sports team won the first game of the year in 2025 but lost the first game of the year in 2020, they had got better, even if they were bottom of the league in 2025 and top of the league in 2020,” she said.

2024 Antarctic sea ice maximum extent finishes at second lowest​

On September 19, 2024, Antarctic sea ice stalled out at an annual maximum extent of 17.16 million square kilometers (6.63 million square miles), the second lowest maximum in the satellite record that began in 1979 (Figure 1a). This year’s maximum is 200,000 square kilometers (77,000 square miles) above the previous record low set in 2023. It is 1.55 million square kilometers below (598,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average Antarctic maximum extent. Sea ice extent is markedly below average in the Indian Ocean. Extent is above average stretching out of the Amundsen Sea.

The Antarctic maximum extent is four days earlier than the 1981 to 2010 median date of September 23. The interquartile range for the date of the Antarctic maximum is September 18 to September 30.

 

[Toddsterpatriot]

Sprawling Heat Dome Could Smash June Records In Northeast, Midwest, Including 100s In New York, Boston​

​

There is no evidence that weather is becoming more erratic or more extreme.

 

[Old Rocks]

I post this because a leftist child in the forum think this is fake news when the person who made this post is well qualified as he hold a PHD in Atmosphere Science, Teaches Meteorology at the University of Washington, heads the Climate Modeling group in the Northwest, publishes papers on this very subject, lobbies for a better run NOAA....., from Wikipedia is an excerpt:

Clifford F. Mass is an American professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. His research focuses on numerical weather modeling and prediction, the role of topography in the evolution of weather systems, regional climate modeling, and the weather of the Pacific Northwest. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society, past-president of the Puget Sound American Meteorological Society chapter, and past chair of the College of the Environment College Council.

Before joining the faculty of the University of Washington, Mass was a professor of meteorology at the University of Maryland from 1978 to 1981."Cliff Mass - Wikipedia" He leads the University of Washington Mesoscale Analysis and Forecasting Group and is the chief scientist of the Northwest Modeling Consortium. He has published over 120 articles in peer-reviewed scientific venues, and served on the board of over a dozen regional and national meteorological committees, conferences, and scientific journals."Cliff Mass - Wikipedia"

LINK

The NOAA is bloated, inefficient and in dire need of improvement.

===============

Cliff Mass weather blog

NOAA's Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem​

May 8, 2025

Excerpt:

Many weather scientists have noted that NOAA's global weather prediction model, the GFS, is now in fourth place, behind the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians.

This is pretty depressing considering the U.S. spends more on weather prediction research and development than all those groups combined. This NOAA global model is the foundation of U.S. operational weather prediction efforts; thus, Americans are experiencing inferior weather forecasts as a result.

LINK

So he is critical of the bureaucracy of NOAA. That is how you improve the ability of scientific endeavours. However to quote Dr. Mass as a critic of current knowledge regarding AGW is laughable, from your own link;

"Mass has stated publicly that he shares the scientific consensus that global warming is real and that human activity is a major cause of warming trend in the late 20th and 21st centuries. According to Mass, "Global warming is an extraordinarily serious issue, and scientists have a key role to play in communicating what is known and what is not about this critical issue." He has been critical of the Paris Climate accord for not going far enough to address the negative impacts of climate change. Mass has also expressed concern when media outlets and environmental organizations have made, in his opinion, exaggerated claims about the current impacts of climate change. Mass has questioned statements of climate change as the cause of specific weather events. For example, Mass concluded that global warming was not a central factor in the 2021 Western North America heat wave. The authors of a World Weather Attribution report asserting the connection criticized Mass's analysis of their work."

Cliff Mass - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Odd that you did not notice that paragraph. Maybe you were depending on no one actually reading your link?

 

[Old Rocks]

I post this because a leftist child in the forum think this is fake news when the person who made this post is well qualified as he hold a PHD in Atmosphere Science, Teaches Meteorology at the University of Washington, heads the Climate Modeling group in the Northwest, publishes papers on this very subject, lobbies for a better run NOAA....., from Wikipedia is an excerpt:

Clifford F. Mass is an American professor of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. His research focuses on numerical weather modeling and prediction, the role of topography in the evolution of weather systems, regional climate modeling, and the weather of the Pacific Northwest. He is a fellow of the American Meteorological Society, past-president of the Puget Sound American Meteorological Society chapter, and past chair of the College of the Environment College Council.

Before joining the faculty of the University of Washington, Mass was a professor of meteorology at the University of Maryland from 1978 to 1981."Cliff Mass - Wikipedia" He leads the University of Washington Mesoscale Analysis and Forecasting Group and is the chief scientist of the Northwest Modeling Consortium. He has published over 120 articles in peer-reviewed scientific venues, and served on the board of over a dozen regional and national meteorological committees, conferences, and scientific journals."Cliff Mass - Wikipedia"

LINK

The NOAA is bloated, inefficient and in dire need of improvement.

===============

Cliff Mass weather blog

NOAA's Forecast Model Has A Drop Out Problem​

May 8, 2025

Excerpt:

Many weather scientists have noted that NOAA's global weather prediction model, the GFS, is now in fourth place, behind the European Center, the UK Meteorology Office, and the Canadians.

This is pretty depressing considering the U.S. spends more on weather prediction research and development than all those groups combined. This NOAA global model is the foundation of U.S. operational weather prediction efforts; thus, Americans are experiencing inferior weather forecasts as a result.

LINK

Now for your second link. I happen to agree with Dr. Mass. However considering the present admin's vandalism of current science in the US, the best scientists will go to work for people where they get respect and pay commensurate with their credentials. And presently, that is not the US.

 

[Old Rocks]

Once again you fall for the misleading media claims as the problem has been going on YEARS, Trump didn't propose anything about the NOAA until this year.

It is clear you didn't read Dr. Mass post about the modeling problem which isn't about the incoming data, you are not really interested in understanding the problem as you are into partisan politics.

Quoting someone who understand this far better, Dr. Mass writes:

"NOAA global predictions have a severe "drop out" problem in which there are sharp, precipitous declines in forecast skill. Major declines in skill not shared by other major weather prediction centers.

Let me show you.

Below are the skills of various modeling systems from April over the northern hemisphere.

It evaluates the ability of models to get things right in the middle of the troposphere...around 18,000 ft (500 hPa pressure)--for a day 6 forecast. 1 indicated perfect score. Above about .8 the forecast is quite useful. Below ~.65 not so much.

The best forecast is the European Center (red line), while the US model (black line) is generally much less skillful.

Note that sometimes the US model skill drops like a rock to below .7 and on one date to below .6. These are drop outs...and represent severe loss of skill.

Note that the European model almost never does the same."

===========

The problem are the bad models which needs to be replaced to improve its forecast skill.

And just how are we going to do that when the present President is doing everything he can to relegate real science to the past in our nation?