But care, you have to understand WHY they're "speculating" in it.
All the relevant fundamentals currently exist, to keep the price going up. The only way it's going to come down at this point, is if we stop devaluing the dollar the way we are, and we stop with the military empire. Even THEN, it's not going to be a bottom drop-out like the housing or dot-com fiascos. This isn't a bubble, like those are. People aren't rushing to oil because they all just can't bear to live without a piece of it, like with the housing boom. It's shaping up to be a long-term quality investment because the important fundamentals that serve to increase its value are present and increasing themselves.
If we get through the Bush admin without action in Iran, and the next admin spends about a year or more on good terms with them...maybe then we'll see some of the "speculation" diminish. Of course, it would also need to be accompanied by a more humble foreign policy all around. The global community is going to have to see a reason to regain faith in the USD again, and the budget certainly could stand to be brought to a surplus or at least a balance, as well.
When and if that can be forseen in the near future, oil will start coming down. Until this all happens, oil has nowhere to go but up.
I can see your points, but before you actually make this decision, go to c-span and look in to the archives for this meeting with the Oil Execs on the Hill and listen/watch it all before you do it.... I am really clueless on all of this and am just trying to learn, and this is why I have kept my eye on this thread and a few others that you and others have been posting on...BUT it did seem to me that this Capital Hill testimony implied that it was or could be, a bubble of sorts....
But like said, i could have not understood it Paul, but I know you would so watch it first, ok? that's all....
Care