MJB12741; georgephillip,
et al,
If Libya and Egypt are any yard stick for comparison, then Syria will be in trouble.
When the dust finally settles in Syria, the questions is who among them will be left to grieve for their departed?
Rocco...do you see Syria becoming Somalia when this dust finally settles?
(COMMENT)
Remember that the vulture circling in Iran.
After the Civil War concludes, there will be a certain amount of chaos and confusion.
If the Assad Government wins (and that is a distinct possibility - Assad doesn't want to the way of Gaddafi or Murbarak), it will surely be weakened. Russia is in it for the profit (political capital and military sales) and not so much the reconstruction. However, for Iran, Syria represents a gateway country to the Mediterranean. It already has Iraq in its pocket and a foothold in Lebanon (Hezbollah dupes), and it is working on improving its position in Syria - betting Assad is not going to wind-up trophy on somebodies wall.
If the Rebels win (and that is by no means a foregone conclusion), there will be this period of internal struggle for power and control. The Mujahideen, Jabhat Al Nusra Jihadist, Syria Hazem Badran (al-Qaeda splinter), are the birds of prey here. They have the weaker position, but are being supplied with Saudi weapons and Russian/American anti-tank missiles as well as Israeli supplied medical kits to combat chemical and nerve agent exposure. The UK and France have taken a stand and have started supporting the Free Syrian Army [(FSA)(Colonel Reyad Musa al-Asaad)]. COL al-Assad was recently injured in a car bomb assassination attempt, more likely conducted by his own, rather than the Assad Regime. The Syrian National Coalition [(SNC) (the political aspect of the rebel movement)] definitely shows signs it is deteriorating. With the resignation of the SNC Leader (Mouaz al-Khatib), the Muslim Brotherhood (Ghassan Hitto) seems to be gaining internal strength in the rebel movement.
It is a mess.
Most Respectfully,
R