NFL offseason QB math again

[EMH]

Miami gets Malik Willis
ATL will compete Penix and Tua
NYJ get Geno Smith

stop there for a second. Does anyone really believe Geno is the "future" of the Jets at QB? He was the Jets 2nd rounder in 2013.... LOL!!! The Jet fan "boo birds" will have a canary if Geno is "the guy" this year. This really is starting to smell like the Jets taking Ty Simpson at 2. Geno is the vet mentor.

We know the Raiders will take Mendoza, they've pretty much admitted it for months


NFL Trade Rumors claims someone said the "asking price" for Mac Jones is "astronomical."


If Ty Simpson is the Jets pick at 2, the following teams are "out of luck" unless they can swing a trade...

AZ
Pitt
Cin and Balt are "maybes" because their QBs, great players when healthy, are really banged up
Wash/KC have QBs coming off major injuries and may not be ready to start the season
Minn
serious question marks in NYG, CLE, even HOU




We watch this year after year. The top few picks are QBs.

Draft

1. LVR Mendoza
2. NYJ Simpson
3. ?

 

[EMH]

Another "not so serious" as an "answer"....

Steelers To Target Kirk Cousins If Aaron Rodgers Doesn't Return

Jason La Canfora of SportsBoom, citing league sources, reports that veteran QB Kirk Cousins is emerging as a "top option" for the Steelers if Aaron Rodgers doesn't return for 2026. Rodgers is still mulling over

nfltraderumors.co

 

[Couchpotato]

Miami gets Malik Willis
ATL will compete Penix and Tua
NYJ get Geno Smith

stop there for a second. Does anyone really believe Geno is the "future" of the Jets at QB? He was the Jets 2nd rounder in 2013.... LOL!!! The Jet fan "boo birds" will have a canary if Geno is "the guy" this year. This really is starting to smell like the Jets taking Ty Simpson at 2. Geno is the vet mentor.

No and neither do the Jets. They traded a 6rd pick for Smith and a 7th. He’s a bridge. Someone has to play QB for them this year. This years draft is terrible at the position. Even if the Jets were able to find a franchise QB they don’t have the other pieces in place anyway.

We know the Raiders will take Mendoza, they've pretty much admitted it for months


NFL Trade Rumors claims someone said the "asking price" for Mac Jones is "astronomical."


If Ty Simpson is the Jets pick at 2, the following teams are "out of luck" unless they can swing a trade...

Ty Simpson isn’t going #2.

AZ
Pitt

Pitt will bring in a vet or play Howard for a year. AZ is a disaster so who knows what they do. Maybe these teams take a flyer in the later rounds on Nussmeier or Allar?

Cin and Balt are "maybes" because their QBs, great players when healthy, are really banged up

Neither of these teams is drafting a qb other than as a back up late in the draft and even that’s doubtful. Baltimore is in win now mode and Cincy has a gaping hole called their entire defense to address

Wash/KC have QBs coming off major injuries and may not be ready to start the season

Neither are these teams

Minn
serious question marks in NYG, CLE, even HOU

Nope. Cleveland’s QB room is terrible but they aren’t drafting another qb. Watson makes too much money and they drafted 2 QBs last year. Maybe they bring in another vet to compete but likely not. Watson probably starts and if he still sucks they will go to Sheddeur.

Giants and Houston aren’t question marks at all

We watch this year after year. The top few picks are QBs.

Draft

1. LVR Mendoza
2. NYJ Simpson
3. ?

It is the most important position.

Mendoza will go 1. Simpson won’t get drafted 2. Probably not until the second round

 

[EMH]

Simpson won’t get drafted 2. Probably not until the second round

There were some games last year where you coulda kinda sorta given Ty a First Round grade. Then there were "other games." Ty apparently looked really sharp at the Combine. Desperate shortages cause desperate actions. Ty really could use another year in the SEC, but his upside is there.


Late FA pick up for fantasy football this year

Ben Sims TE Miami

why?

because he was GB's backup while Malik was GB backup, and Malik can "get it there," and while "straight line-ish" Sims has real 4.5 speed and high end hands and ball skills. He's also a very good blocker, excellent score for MIA offense.

 

[EMH]

It may be just me, but I don't think

Carson Beck
Garrett Nussmeier

are serious NFL starting caliber prospects.

I think both suck.

Drew Allar may have some physical tools, but he was always "deer in the headlights" in big games, and never won a big game. I don't see any reason why that would change in the NFL.


My grades

Beck - undrafted
Nussmeier - 7th round
Allar - undrafted

 

[Couchpotato]

It may be just me, but I don't think

Carson Beck
Garrett Nussmeier

are serious NFL starting caliber prospects.

I think both suck.

Drew Allar may have some physical tools, but he was always "deer in the headlights" in big games, and never won a big game. I don't see any reason why that would change in the NFL.


My grades

Beck - undrafted
Nussmeier - 7th round
Allar - undrafted

Here's the problem with this assessment. You also think Pavia is the second-best QB in this draft and that Spencer Rattler was the best QB in the 2024 draft......

All three will be drafted. Likely late 6-7th round. They are worth a flyer.

I think it's something like 30% of drafted players ever make an active roster. It's obviously much lower for players drafted in the 6th and 7th rounds. (100% of 1st Rnd and probably 2nd Rnd players make the roster their first year) QB being an exceedingly valuable position there is more value in drafting a QB prospect in the 6-7th round than a CB or WR. Especially in a draft where the QB position was under drafted, which this draft class likely will be.

Stetson Bennett was drafted in the 4th by the Rams for crying out loud.

 

[EMH]

Rattler has a great arm.

Pavia's arm isn't quite that good, but Pavia is a great field general, a leader, a motivator, one who "outperforms and inspires."

Pavia has a better arm than Simpson, Allar, Beck, and Nussmeier

 

[Couchpotato]

Rattler has a great arm.

Cool he can throw a ball hard. All QB's at the Division 1 level can throw a football hard. There's more to being a NFL starting QB than throwing a football hard. If there wasn't Richardson in Indy would be an All Pro. I notice that no one is talking about offering NO anything for Rattler BTW.

Pavia's arm isn't quite that good, but Pavia is a great field general, a leader, a motivator, one who "outperforms and inspires."

Pavia has a better arm than Simpson, Allar, Beck, and Nussmeier

Even assuming all that is true, he wont be drafted because he's not big enough. His athletic ability doesn't overcome his lack of measurables. It's why Kyler Murray (who is also 5-10) was drafted #1 overall and will likely be the starting QB for Minny this year and Pavia will be working a 9-5 somewhere.

 

[EMH]

Cool he can throw a ball hard.

It isn't just a strong arm. The release is quick and compact. The accuracy is there up to 50 yards downfield.

 

[Couchpotato]

It isn't just a strong arm. The release is quick and compact. The accuracy is there up to 50 yards downfield.

It's so odd that he's so good and yet has never lived up to the hype. (your hype)

 

[Rocko]

I thought the Jets should have signed Kyler Murray instead of Geno. Stupid, but typical Jets.

 

[EMH]

I thought the Jets should have signed Kyler Murray instead of Geno. Stupid, but typical Jets.

Kyler should retire. He can't stay healthy and he is not the player he was out of OU.

 

[Rocko]

Kyler should retire. He can't stay healthy and he is not the player he was out of OU.

I could see him playing baseball if he doesn’t get a starting job.

 

[EMH]

I could see him playing baseball if he doesn’t get a starting job.

He made a huge mistake not playing baseball.

Not that he wasn't good, he was, but he was a running QB in the NFL, and they simply do not last long.

 

[Couchpotato]

I thought the Jets should have signed Kyler Murray instead of Geno. Stupid, but typical Jets.

Why would Kyler sign with them? AZ has to pay his salary minus whatever the team he goes to pays him. He can take vet minimum from Minny and play for a contender vs the shit show that is the Jets. Kyler has to remake his image doing it in Minny will be much easier than in NY.

 

[Rocko]

Why would Kyler sign with them? AZ has to pay his salary minus whatever the team he goes to pays him. He can take vet minimum from Minny and play for a contender vs the shit show that is the Jets. Kyler has to remake his image doing it in Minny will be much easier than in NY.

You called it. He signed with the Vikings

 

[Couchpotato]

You called it. He signed with the Vikings

We will see how it works out.

 

[MarathonMike]

I thought the Jets should have signed Kyler Murray instead of Geno. Stupid, but typical Jets.

Looks like Kyler Murray is a Viking. He was hot when he first came out but a combination of injuries and the league figuring him out, he was pretty much a bust for the Cardinals. Not a very dynamic leader either, sort of mopey. Baker Mayfield he ain't.

 

[22lcidw]

Looks like Kyler Murray is a Viking. He was hot when he first came out but a combination of injuries and the league figuring him out, he was pretty much a bust for the Cardinals. Not a very dynamic leader either, sort of mopey. Baker Mayfield he ain't.

He has the tools except for his size. Some reporters have noted he does not study for games.

 

[MarathonMike]

He has the tools except for his size. Some reporters have noted he does not study for games.

It will be interesting to see him play for a different team and a top receiver core.