Neil Howe: What To Expect From The Fourth Turning We're Now In

[Michelle420]

I liked his book, some people might enjoy it and this podcast.



Neil Howe demographer and co-authour of the book The Fourth Turning returns to the podcast this week. In our prior interview with him, we explored his study of generational cycles ("turnings") in America which reveal predictable social trends that recur throughout history and warn of a coming crisis (a "fourth turning") based on this research.

Fourth turnings are characterized by a growing demand for social order, yet supply of it remains weak. The emergence of the surveillance state, a perpetual war machine, increased intervention in the markets by the central planners, greater government control of critical systems like health care and the Internet -- all of these are classic signs that we are well into a fourth turning now.


The Fourth Turning:
An American Prophecy—What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America’s Next Rendezvous with Destiny

Looking back to the dawn of the modern world, The Fourth Turning reveals a distinct pattern in human history, cycles lasting about the length of a long human life. Each cycle is composed of four “turnings,” and each turning lasts the span of a generation (about 20 years). There are four kinds of turnings (High, Awakening, Unraveling, Crisis), and they always occur in the same order.

 

[B. Kidd]

Breixit ramped it up for sure.

 

[Michelle420]

Breixit ramped it up for sure.

He also wrote a good book about social trends called "Generations" starting in the 1500's social history up through 2069. It was interesting but a really Big book so I didn't read the whole thing only read sections I was interested in which was the last couple of generations, the last few cycles and the future predictions.



Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 :
William Strauss and Neil Howe posit the history of America as a succession of generational biographies, beginning in 1584 and encompassing every-one through the children of today. Their bold theory is that each generation belongs to one of four types, and that these types repeat sequentially in a fixed pattern. The vision of Generations allows us to plot a recurring cycle in American history -- a cycle of spiritual awakenings and secular crises -- from the founding colonists through the present day and well into this millennium.

Generations is at once a refreshing historical narrative and a thrilling intuitive leap that reorders not only our history books but also our expectations for the twenty-first century.

Amazon.com: Generations: The History of America's Future, 1584 to 2069 (9780688119126): Neil Howe, William Strauss: Books

 

[Moonglow]

Metaphysics explained...

 

[Michelle420]

Metaphysics explained...

http://www.tqhr.it/report/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/MORGAN-Paradigms_Metaphors_Puzzle.pdf

 

[Michelle420]

Generational Cycles


Millennials Rising by Neil Howe & William Strauss fleshes out a theory that generations have a cyclical nature, with four generational types.

Here is the basic idea:

An era starts with an Idealist generation, focused on social issues, and question/challenge the morals of institutions. Idealists are born and grow up in a societal ‘high’- when crime is low, optimism is high, and children are indulged.

Next, is the Reactive generation, focused pragmatic-solutions, and survival. They are usually rebellious, independent, and cynical. The are born during an ‘awakening’- when society is focused on ‘self’ rather than community. Crime starts to rise, and children are under-protected. They are usually branded a “bad” generation.

Next, is the Civic generation, focused on ‘how to clean things up’, and finding consensus in a divisive ‘unraveling’ culture. They gear toward rebuilding institutions, and value optimism and team-work.

Next, is the Adaptive generation. They are born during a societal ‘crisis’. They are over-protected, and value fairness, sensitivity, cooperation. They tend to be conformists, and are usually labeled as a “good” generation.

So based on this cycle it’s fairly easy to identify these archetypes in the present era:
Boomers (Idealists)
GenX (Reactives)
Millennials (Civics)
still cooking… (Adaptives)

So what does all this actually look like?
To better understand the era we’re in now, it helps to look at the previous era cycle 1890s-1970s.


Generational Cycles

 

[G.T.]

drifter thanks for contributing to the podcast pit