Nate Silver Say... Everything Nate Silver goes here

[Cowman]

He also had the ability to predict the winner of every single senatorial race in 2008 as well.

That's... 49 out of 50 states, and all 35 senatorial races.

He's definitely not a "who" in politics.

 

[Article 15]

You realize the same guy wrote that the election was uncertain? Which is it, 19% or Uncertain?

This guy can't make up his f*ckin' mind.

Since when is an 80.7% chance certain?

it's 30.7% more that a flip of a coin.

I'd call that certain

Maybe not a sure thing, but it's a far cry from throwin darts.

"Maybe not a sure thing"

No, dude, again no maybe there. It means he puts his chances at winning at 19.3%.

To put in terms of poker, if this were a Hold em hand Obama has pocket aces and Romney has a smaller pocket pair in the hole.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Who?

Nate Silver. Sabermetrics and statistical model expert. Made his bones in baseball and then moved onto election modeling. Was named one of Time's 100 most influential people in 2009 for his work on the 2008 elections.

And no Pres has one election with over 8% UE

cept maybe fdr

No cept maybe there, TT, and it isn't a coincidence that FDR got reelected and Obama is on his way to doing so as well.

Why?

what's he done?

He beat both Real Clear and Pollster on poll analysis, and was the most accurate in 2008 race.

 

[The Rabbi]

He also had the ability to predict the winner of every single senatorial race in 2008 as well.

That's... 49 out of 50 states, and all 35 senatorial races.

He's definitely not a "who" in politics.

That was like predicting the winner of a Soviet election. Didnt take much.
Politics is not baseball.

 

[Two Thumbs]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

It must suck even more than usual to be a right wing nut about now.

Who?

And no Pres has one election with over 8% UE

cept maybe fdr

This guy called the 2008 election exactly, pretty much state by state, based on poll data.

He's not a "who?" in political polling. He knows how to read polls and make predictions with amazing precision.

In fact, he was only 1 state off.

Ok

This may come as a shock; I wasn't being an ass, I honestly never heard of him

 

[Two Thumbs]

Since when is an 80.7% chance certain?

it's 30.7% more that a flip of a coin.

I'd call that certain

Maybe not a sure thing, but it's a far cry from throwin darts.

"Maybe not a sure thing"

No, dude, again no maybe there. It means he puts his chances at winning at 19.3%.

To put in terms of poker, if this were a Hold em hand Obama has pocket aces and Romney has a smaller pocket pair in the hole.

you said "poker"

I've won pots with holding a baby straight. So you're saying Mitt can win if he bluffs the nation.

 

[Cowman]

He also had the ability to predict the winner of every single senatorial race in 2008 as well.

That's... 49 out of 50 states, and all 35 senatorial races.

He's definitely not a "who" in politics.

That was like predicting the winner of a Soviet election. Didnt take much.
Politics is not baseball.

Oh bullshit.

 

[Article 15]

Who?

And no Pres has one election with over 8% UE

cept maybe fdr

This guy called the 2008 election exactly, pretty much state by state, based on poll data.

He's not a "who?" in political polling. He knows how to read polls and make predictions with amazing precision.

In fact, he was only 1 state off.

Ok

This may come as a shock; I wasn't being an ass, I honestly never heard of him

He's quite brilliant. Total super nerd.

I mean, c'mon now....

 

[Article 15]

it's 30.7% more that a flip of a coin.

I'd call that certain

Maybe not a sure thing, but it's a far cry from throwin darts.

"Maybe not a sure thing"

No, dude, again no maybe there. It means he puts his chances at winning at 19.3%.

To put in terms of poker, if this were a Hold em hand Obama has pocket aces and Romney has a smaller pocket pair in the hole.

you said "poker"

I've won pots with holding a baby straight. So you're saying Mitt can win if he bluffs the nation.

That's what he's trying to do....

 

[The Rabbi]

He also had the ability to predict the winner of every single senatorial race in 2008 as well.

That's... 49 out of 50 states, and all 35 senatorial races.

He's definitely not a "who" in politics.

That was like predicting the winner of a Soviet election. Didnt take much.
Politics is not baseball.

Oh bullshit.

Translation: Bingo!

 

[Two Thumbs]

This guy called the 2008 election exactly, pretty much state by state, based on poll data.

He's not a "who?" in political polling. He knows how to read polls and make predictions with amazing precision.

In fact, he was only 1 state off.

Ok

This may come as a shock; I wasn't being an ass, I honestly never heard of him

He's quite brilliant. Total super nerd.

I mean, c'mon now....

If he's not rich, he's invested in online porn.

just sayin

 

[Two Thumbs]

"Maybe not a sure thing"

No, dude, again no maybe there. It means he puts his chances at winning at 19.3%.

To put in terms of poker, if this were a Hold em hand Obama has pocket aces and Romney has a smaller pocket pair in the hole.

you said "poker"

I've won pots with holding a baby straight. So you're saying Mitt can win if he bluffs the nation.

That's what he's trying to do....

Obama is doubling down on blaming Bush.

Seems they are both playing the game with our chips.

 

[Cowman]

That was like predicting the winner of a Soviet election. Didnt take much.
Politics is not baseball.

Oh bullshit.

Translation: Bingo!

You know how many people thought that Obama was fucking done for because of Palin? Yeah, you were probably fucking one of them. And you were probably fucking one of them as well.

 

[WillowTree]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

It must suck even more than usual to be a right wing nut about now.

 

[The Rabbi]

Oh bullshit.

Translation: Bingo!

You know how many people thought that Obama was fucking done for because of Palin? Yeah, you were probably fucking one of them. And you were probably fucking one of them as well.

Actually I wasn't. I was turned off when I listened to the debate and heard her going on about "greedy Wall St bankers" causing all the mess. That's a Dem line. You dont beat Democrats by being more Democrat.

 

[Article 15]

you said "poker"

I've won pots with holding a baby straight. So you're saying Mitt can win if he bluffs the nation.

That's what he's trying to do....

Obama is doubling down on blaming Bush.

Seems they are both playing the game with our chips.

Yup ... Mitt bluffs, says it's Obama's fault.

Obama reminds everyone what he walked into and then contrasts the then with the now and flips over his aces.

 

[Article 15]

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

It must suck even more than usual to be a right wing nut about now.

*bows*

Don't ewe forget that I own your sigline when Obama wins.

 

[Article 15]

Ok

This may come as a shock; I wasn't being an ass, I honestly never heard of him

He's quite brilliant. Total super nerd.

I mean, c'mon now....

If he's not rich, he's invested in online porn.

just sayin

He def looks like he drools a lot.

 

[elvis]

And .... ?

You do realize you are citing the same guy who has Romney at a 19.3% chance to win, right?

You realize the same guy wrote that the election was uncertain? Which is it, 19% or Uncertain?

This guy can't make up his f*ckin' mind.

Since when is an 80.7% chance certain?

Ask the designers of the Challenger's O-rings.

 

[Two Thumbs]

That's what he's trying to do....

Obama is doubling down on blaming Bush.

Seems they are both playing the game with our chips.

Yup ... Mitt bluffs, says it's Obama's fault.

Obama reminds everyone what he walked into and then contrast the then with the now and flips over his aces.

the then and now with aces?

damn you're bluffed.


Wanna get together and play some cards? It's been a long time since I've played, but I'm certain I can keep up as long as the deck comes with one of those list cards so I know what beats what.