Nate Silver: GOP Favorite to Win 9 Senate seats currently held by Dems

[LoneLaugher]

Nutters project.

I have no issue with Nate Silver. His people are expecting that the GOP will win some seats in November.

 

[blackhawk]

Nate Silver to his credit has been dead on in his political predictions lets see what he is saying in July or August when the midterms are much closer.

 

[CaféAuLait]

Early Senate Polls Have Plenty to Tell Us About November | FiveThirtyEight


With approval ratings for Obama factored in, Republicans are now favorites to win in Kentucky, Georgia, as well as pick up seats in Michigan, Colorado, North Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia.

This model is significantly more generous to the GOP than my own, despite many liberals chastising me for "counting my chickens before they hatch". Well, Nate Silver's blog actually predicts a BIGGER GOP win than I do.

did you even bother reading the article?

because nate sure didn't say what you're saying.

Yeah, cause 6 and 9 are pretty far apart on the keyboard, maybe he had something else on his mind?

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

Quote from the OP's link:

Overall, this simple model puts Democratic losses in the Senate at 6.8 seats, just off the FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast of 5.8 seats, which takes into account other factors including fundraising totals and candidate ideology.

I'm referring to the probabilities of each seat. Keep in mind that there's still a decent chance we'll lose some that we have a 50%+ chance of winning, hence the 6.8. The 5.8 is the "official forecast", but the 6.8 number is nonetheless a statistic published by 538 and approved by Nate Silver. I'm just saying that the accusations against my model of having a liberal bias are unfounded.

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

Early Senate Polls Have Plenty to Tell Us About November | FiveThirtyEight


With approval ratings for Obama factored in, Republicans are now favorites to win in Kentucky, Georgia, as well as pick up seats in Michigan, Colorado, North Carolina, Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas, South Dakota, Montana, and West Virginia.

This model is significantly more generous to the GOP than my own, despite many liberals chastising me for "counting my chickens before they hatch". Well, Nate Silver's blog actually predicts a BIGGER GOP win than I do.

did you even bother reading the article?

because nate sure didn't say what you're saying.

Yeah, cause 6 and 9 are pretty far apart on the keyboard, maybe he had something else on his mind?

All I said is that using 538's model, there are 9 states that Dems have less than a 50% chance of holding based on "Democrats with Polls and Approval": they are Michigan (49%), Colorado (47%), North Carolina (37%), Arkansas (31%), Louisiana (30%), Alaska (24%), and SD/MT/WV (1%). Thus, what I said was correct, Nyvin. That being said, I may have made the statistic a bit too rosy for the GOP, but the content of what I said was true based on the forecasts published in that article.

 

[Hoosier4Liberty]

Come on, liberals. You LOVE this guy. Now, take your medicine.

 

[AceRothstein]

I see a veto proof majority for the republicans coming.

LOL, no.