Alexei Fenenko, Leading Research Fellow, Institute of International Security Studies of RAS, Russian Academy of Sciences, shares his opinion about Korean crisis.
“The greatest danger in the Korean crisis lays in the fact that continued tension benefits all key regional players. First of all, it is favorable for North Korea itself, which uses it as a tool to exert leverage on other countries, mainly the United States, while demanding economic aid and security guarantees from the international community. Secondly, it is beneficial for the United States, which on the one hand, is seeking to establish a forced disarmament plan for the “illegal nuclear state”, and on the other, to implement a major commercial project: the 1994 Agreed Framework, under which the Americans sought to replace North Korea’s heavy water reactors with light water ones. Japan also benefits from this strained state of affairs. It is exploiting the tension to push for the re-signing of the United States-Japan 1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security. And it is certainly beneficial for China, as it can use the North Korean crisis to demonstrate that without China, there will be little chance of resolving the region’s major problems.
The current crisis reveals yet another negative trend: North Korea no longer takes American security guarantees seriously. The United States is bound by a set of obligations to protect its two allies – Japan and South Korea; therefore, it is conventionally accepted that the United States would initiate the conflict. Now that the Obama administration has shown that, unlike the previous Republican administration, it does not necessarily take so robust stance on defending its allies, North Korea has begun to “vet” the United States to see if, under certain circumstances, they would be prepared to abandon their allies in the Pacific, especially since the United States already has serious ongoing commitments to two theaters of conflict: Iraq and Afghanistan.”
Full version of his interview was published on valdaiclub.com
“The greatest danger in the Korean crisis lays in the fact that continued tension benefits all key regional players. First of all, it is favorable for North Korea itself, which uses it as a tool to exert leverage on other countries, mainly the United States, while demanding economic aid and security guarantees from the international community. Secondly, it is beneficial for the United States, which on the one hand, is seeking to establish a forced disarmament plan for the “illegal nuclear state”, and on the other, to implement a major commercial project: the 1994 Agreed Framework, under which the Americans sought to replace North Korea’s heavy water reactors with light water ones. Japan also benefits from this strained state of affairs. It is exploiting the tension to push for the re-signing of the United States-Japan 1960 Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security. And it is certainly beneficial for China, as it can use the North Korean crisis to demonstrate that without China, there will be little chance of resolving the region’s major problems.
The current crisis reveals yet another negative trend: North Korea no longer takes American security guarantees seriously. The United States is bound by a set of obligations to protect its two allies – Japan and South Korea; therefore, it is conventionally accepted that the United States would initiate the conflict. Now that the Obama administration has shown that, unlike the previous Republican administration, it does not necessarily take so robust stance on defending its allies, North Korea has begun to “vet” the United States to see if, under certain circumstances, they would be prepared to abandon their allies in the Pacific, especially since the United States already has serious ongoing commitments to two theaters of conflict: Iraq and Afghanistan.”
Full version of his interview was published on valdaiclub.com