My opinion of the state of the race as of 11 days out...

Hurricanelover

Diamond Member
Oct 4, 2021
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My opinion looking at the data as of today
The bad
Florida
isn't within 7% for harris. Certain Trump.
Georgia is 3-4% more white and the turn out in the rurals is fucking Amazing. 2-3% for Trump.
NC is slipping away...1-2% for Trump.
Arizona the republicans have a 80k lead and we're nearing a 1/3rd of 2020 vote. There's no way in hell Harris will win it on election night.
Nevada is gone for Harris. 2020 Biden had a 50k lead at this point,,,while Harris is down nearly 24k.

It will come down to the rust belt and Neb 2....
The good
Mi
is safe Harris. Female/male ratio matches 2020!
Pa the return rate for democrats is slowing fast so they'll be lucky to get 400k firewall. The thing is republicans are voting early and so there's hope that the democrats will have a good election day to win it. I say 70% chance of Harris winning it.
Wi probably 8% for Harris as the midwest seems to be favorable for harris. As in the wave to the south isn't creepen in.
Neb-2 is leading by 4k votes for democrats. Seems to be quite favorable.

Probably 270 for Harris.

source for information » 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab
 
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The race will be won or lost in Wisconsin. Pa and Mi are 90 and 75% for Harris. It will come down to Wis as there really isn't enough data to have solid opinions of it and will likely be the most right of the three states.

There is also no room for lost of it with Harris. It is much easier for Trump to win by far more this election at this point.
 
The race will be won or lost in Wisconsin. Pa and Mi are 90 and 75% for Harris. It will come down to Wis as there really isn't enough data to have solid opinions of it and will likely be the most right of the three states.

There is also no room for lost of it with Harris. It is much easier for Trump to win by far more this election at this point.
IF I was Harris's campaign manager I'd focus on the rust belt with all our energy and resources. 2-3 events per day in each of the three states until election day. Maybe go on local tv in wis and pa once or twice per day.

Double down on the ground game and maybe knock on doors personally in Wisconsin. Drive out the base.
 
My opinion looking at the data as of today
The bad
Florida
isn't within 7% for harris. Certain Trump.
Georgia is 3-4% more white and the turn out in the rurals is fucking Amazing. 2-3% for Trump.
NC is slipping away...1-2% for Trump.
Arizona the republicans have a 80k lead and we're nearing a 1/3rd of 2020 vote. There's no way in hell Harris will win it on election night.
Nevada is gone for Harris. 2020 Biden had a 50k lead at this point,,,while Harris is down nearly 24k.

It will come down to the rust belt and Neb 2....
The good
Mi
is safe Harris. Female/male ratio matches 2020!
Pa the return rate for democrats is slowing fast so they'll be lucky to get 400k firewall. The thing is republicans are voting early and so there's hope that the democrats will have a good election day to win it. I say 70% chance of Harris winning it.
Wi probably 8% for Harris as the midwest seems to be favorable for harris. As in the wave to the south isn't creepen in.
Neb-2 is leading by 4k votes for democrats. Seems to be quite favorable.

Probably 270 for Harris.

source for information » 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab
Absolutely none of that matters. We are using voting machines that can switch votes in seconds. Whoever programmed Dominion machines will be picking the winner, again.
 
My opinion looking at the data as of today
The bad
Florida
isn't within 7% for harris. Certain Trump.
Georgia is 3-4% more white and the turn out in the rurals is fucking Amazing. 2-3% for Trump.
NC is slipping away...1-2% for Trump.
Arizona the republicans have a 80k lead and we're nearing a 1/3rd of 2020 vote. There's no way in hell Harris will win it on election night.
Nevada is gone for Harris. 2020 Biden had a 50k lead at this point,,,while Harris is down nearly 24k.

It will come down to the rust belt and Neb 2....
The good
Mi
is safe Harris. Female/male ratio matches 2020!
Pa the return rate for democrats is slowing fast so they'll be lucky to get 400k firewall. The thing is republicans are voting early and so there's hope that the democrats will have a good election day to win it. I say 70% chance of Harris winning it.
Wi probably 8% for Harris as the midwest seems to be favorable for harris. As in the wave to the south isn't creepen in.
Neb-2 is leading by 4k votes for democrats. Seems to be quite favorable.

Probably 270 for Harris.

source for information » 2024 Early Voting UF Election Lab
Don't tell me, let me guess, you think Harris will win.
 
Biden 'won' the popular vote by 4.5%,- consistent with the polling - but the electoral vote by ~42,000 over 3 states.
If Harris isn't polling nationally in the same area, Trump will pick up those 42,000 votes and those 3 states.
 
Biden 'won' the popular vote by 4.5%,- consistent with the polling - but the electoral vote by ~42,000 over 3 states.
If Harris isn't polling nationally in the same area, Trump will pick up those 42,000 votes and those 3 states.
I am assuming that the rest of the country votes 4.5-5% to the right outside of the rust belt of 2020. Imagine Florida voting 10% Trump and Trump winning Az, Nev, Ga by 2-3% rather then 1-4% for democrats. This way the rust belt still manages to vote for Harris while Trump support is in the south.

Of course, I believe the popular vote will still be 2% for Harris but it isn't impossible Trump out performs...More like 2016 in popular vote but for economic reasons the wall stands.
 
If turn out for democrats don't pick up big time in places like New york, California, etc....I suspect that the republicans will gain about 15-20 seats in the house and 4 senate; Az, ohio, wis pick ups....

Of course, if Harris can gain the rust belt while keeping the increase of support outside of the rust belt maybe she can grant the democrats wins in wis, mi and pa??? We'll see.
 

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