DarthTrader
Diamond Member
- Mar 29, 2022
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- #1
I can reasonably demonstrate that the Moskva was not attacked from land, but attacked from the sea.
Contrary to what most here think, I'm American - but I do not agree with America's hubris. I think we are playing dangerous games propping up a fascist-Nazi state that is as corrupt as the other quasi-fascist state that's attacking it. I SUPPOSE the idea to raise the costs against Russia is ok to an extent, but it's a very dangerous game so we should cut our losses. I fully disagree with the sanctions and weaponization of SWIFT. Like "Die Hard", where the plan was to use the FBI's own play book against them, Russia knew we'd walk right into that trap.
Now - that being said - I think the US sinking Moskva from a Los Angeles class launched Harpoon is clever as all fuck....BUT....I don't think the risk outweighs the reward. I can't be the only one to have discovered this and Russia will have much better information in the after action review and interrogation of the ship's crew.
We've all seen this video, but what most of you probably don't pay attention to is a few things:
So the systems were offline - no DOUBT about it. The problem I have is that so many are quick to assume the Russians were just incompetent and didn't turn on their systems.
That's unlikely.
Now, regardless your biases, you cannot refute this evidence.
Here is the wind from April 12 to April 15
April 12
April 13 (Attack) I drew some hypothetical ship positions
April 14, about 6am Odessa time.
April 14 9AM Odessa time
3PM Odessa time.
Anyway - the winds don't change again until night fall when they start to push north.
So at no time is the Moskva subjected to winds that give the Ukrainians a shot. The missile would have had to come from Odessa, Mikolaiv is a war zone and constantly bombarded. The Neptune system is a 6 truck convoy that looks similar to air defense and Russia is blowing-up air defense where ever it finds them in the east. Mikolaiv is a POSSIBLE shot...but very improbable.
And the ship is not perpindicular to the wind but to the starboard of the wind which means that even Mikolaiv would be an unlikely shot.
Also the presumed sinking location is a bit out of reach.
So, why the LA class Sub attack?
If we make the assumption that Moskva would have readied her defenses seeing a sub-sonic missile clunking toward her for 5-10 minutes flight time, then the logical answer is how could they be attacked without enough time to respond?
The Neptune in a round-about way is a derivative of the Harpoon.
www.defensedaily.com
The US Navy has this capability.
Moskva would track but not see a Los Angeles class submarine as a threat (if they even detected it at all. Moskva has some anti-sub capability but it's mostly in its helicopter not its subsystems).
The submarine could definitely get within a 30 second shot. Even one minute would be a very short reaction time. 4 minutes the crew could respond to, 1 minute not likely, 30 seconds almost not at all.
I think there is a STRONG case that the wind as evidenced by the smoke's lean, shows that the Moskva was attacked from the south east or easterly direction. Presumably very close range. With a missile that COULD BE MISTAKEN for a Neptune, such that if Russia dives the wreck they won't have that piece of evidence if any could be found.
I think Russia has access to this information as well, and not willing to start WW3 over it, gives out their cockamaime excuse of a fire on board and a storm at sea (can clearly see no storm Apr 13 - Apr 14).
The Russians will ask the crew what went wrong, the likely answer is they had no reaction time. They will report what side of the ship they were hit from, someone will KNOW they were hit port side, and what heading was the ship when hit? Someone will know, presumably south west.
The Russians WILL know the attack didn't come from Ukraine. Regardless if they deduce it from a few images and some wind data.
This can't be 100%, but the Russians will know 100%.
Contrary to what most here think, I'm American - but I do not agree with America's hubris. I think we are playing dangerous games propping up a fascist-Nazi state that is as corrupt as the other quasi-fascist state that's attacking it. I SUPPOSE the idea to raise the costs against Russia is ok to an extent, but it's a very dangerous game so we should cut our losses. I fully disagree with the sanctions and weaponization of SWIFT. Like "Die Hard", where the plan was to use the FBI's own play book against them, Russia knew we'd walk right into that trap.
Now - that being said - I think the US sinking Moskva from a Los Angeles class launched Harpoon is clever as all fuck....BUT....I don't think the risk outweighs the reward. I can't be the only one to have discovered this and Russia will have much better information in the after action review and interrogation of the ship's crew.
We've all seen this video, but what most of you probably don't pay attention to is a few things:
- AK-630s are in the shutdown-stern position. Never activated.
- S-300 tubes are closed, when the weapon system is activated the tube is open.
- SA-N-4 GECKOs were also in the offline position.
So the systems were offline - no DOUBT about it. The problem I have is that so many are quick to assume the Russians were just incompetent and didn't turn on their systems.
That's unlikely.
Now, regardless your biases, you cannot refute this evidence.
- The ship is listing with the wind, the smoke is leaning with the wind.
- The windage of the Moskva is greatest to the stern, which means the stern would be pulled into the wind (sailing mechanics). This hasn't happened yet therefore the ship is still in its original heading.
- The firefighting-rescue ships that arrive on scene (origin of picture) have not lashed to the Moskva and have not towed her into any other position.
Here is the wind from April 12 to April 15
April 12
April 13 (Attack) I drew some hypothetical ship positions
April 14, about 6am Odessa time.
April 14 9AM Odessa time
3PM Odessa time.
Anyway - the winds don't change again until night fall when they start to push north.
So at no time is the Moskva subjected to winds that give the Ukrainians a shot. The missile would have had to come from Odessa, Mikolaiv is a war zone and constantly bombarded. The Neptune system is a 6 truck convoy that looks similar to air defense and Russia is blowing-up air defense where ever it finds them in the east. Mikolaiv is a POSSIBLE shot...but very improbable.
And the ship is not perpindicular to the wind but to the starboard of the wind which means that even Mikolaiv would be an unlikely shot.
Also the presumed sinking location is a bit out of reach.
So, why the LA class Sub attack?
If we make the assumption that Moskva would have readied her defenses seeing a sub-sonic missile clunking toward her for 5-10 minutes flight time, then the logical answer is how could they be attacked without enough time to respond?
The Neptune in a round-about way is a derivative of the Harpoon.
Navy Adding Anti-Ship Harpoons Back On Los Angeles Subs Until Tomahawks Ready - Defense Daily
The Navy is going to start putting anti-ship Harpoon missiles on Los Angeles-class submarines this year until the new anti-ship Tomahawk is ready...
www.defensedaily.com
The US Navy has this capability.
Moskva would track but not see a Los Angeles class submarine as a threat (if they even detected it at all. Moskva has some anti-sub capability but it's mostly in its helicopter not its subsystems).
The submarine could definitely get within a 30 second shot. Even one minute would be a very short reaction time. 4 minutes the crew could respond to, 1 minute not likely, 30 seconds almost not at all.
I think there is a STRONG case that the wind as evidenced by the smoke's lean, shows that the Moskva was attacked from the south east or easterly direction. Presumably very close range. With a missile that COULD BE MISTAKEN for a Neptune, such that if Russia dives the wreck they won't have that piece of evidence if any could be found.
I think Russia has access to this information as well, and not willing to start WW3 over it, gives out their cockamaime excuse of a fire on board and a storm at sea (can clearly see no storm Apr 13 - Apr 14).
The Russians will ask the crew what went wrong, the likely answer is they had no reaction time. They will report what side of the ship they were hit from, someone will KNOW they were hit port side, and what heading was the ship when hit? Someone will know, presumably south west.
The Russians WILL know the attack didn't come from Ukraine. Regardless if they deduce it from a few images and some wind data.
This can't be 100%, but the Russians will know 100%.
