'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

[Coyote]

It can be a factor:Snow Drought | Drought.gov

Those are all effects LOCAL to the river and stream system.. When droughts are REGIONAL and LONG enough to be associated with climate -- the winter/summer water/runoff availability does not really factor into CLIMATE declarations...

How can you be sure?

That's what REGIONAL climate is -- a generalization to an ENTIRE region.. Not just stream/river systems. And when you're talking about regional long term averages for rainfall/soil moisture -- summer and winter are all tallied up together... Which on the West coast is the "dry season" and the "wet season"... Science MIGHT take those issues up separately for some esoteric reason -- but "megadroughts" are a mashup of Decades, Centuries -- not seasons.. And I take issue with the authors of that study comparing a minutely SHORT "dust bowl" to what they're studying being "megadroughts".. It's playing to the public -- just like the "tip of the hat"
to bringing that 1degC GW temperature change issue to the FOREFRONT of their concerns..

I wouldn’t call the Dust Bowldrought short exactly, it came in three waves but in some parts of the High Plains, it lasted 8 years with no respite.

One degree doesn’t sound like much, but it’s an average and it can make a huge difference. It’s inaccurate to think you need big swings to matter. For example, one degree over years, can be enough keep a winter from killing back enough of an insect pest causing them to increase and decimate entire forests. That leads to massive amounts of dead trees, which become potent fuel for wildfires that burn off the entire area destroying ground cover. That leads to erosion, soil that holds less moisture and loses more to evaporation. All hypothetical but it shows the difference one degree, on average, over time
can make.

 

[Sunsettommy]

The Megadrought study turns out to be in error as they doomed it with a made-up time frame to generate a dishonest statistical endgame.

I posted a new thread HERE

Study finds Western megadrought is the worst in 1,200 years​

Already debunked.

 

[Orangecat]

I live in Oregon. The weather is fantastic for February. Go Global Warming!!!

 

[ReinyDays]

I live in Oregon. The weather is fantastic for February. Go Global Warming!!!

You do? ... what the hell is that giant fireball up in the sky ... and what kind of pollution is this light blue up in the sky ... it burns us it burns us it burns us golllum gollum gollum ...

 

[Sunsettommy]

I live in Oregon. The weather is fantastic for February. Go Global Warming!!!

Really it is SNOWING in John Day Oregon.

 

[Lastamender]

I wonder if we are in for another dust bowl, combined with economic collapse. This is also includes areas that have seen a big increase in population.


'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

Fueled in part by human-caused climate change, a “megadrought” appears to be emerging in the western U.S., a study published Thursday suggests.

In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say.

Megadroughts – defined as intense droughts that last for decades or longer – once plagued the Desert Southwest. Thanks to global warming, an especially fierce one appears to be coming back:

"We now have enough observations of current drought and tree-ring records of past drought to say that we're on the same trajectory as the worst prehistoric droughts," said study lead author A. Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University, in a statement. This is “a drought bigger than what modern society has seen."

Scientists say that about half of this historic drought can be blamed on man-made global warming. Some of the impacts today include shrinking reservoirs and worsening wildfire seasons.

Megadroughts could return to southwestern U.S.

Severe droughts parched western North America hundreds of years ago. They may return, thanks to climate change.

www.nationalgeographic.com

Described in a comprehensive new study published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, scientists now understand the causes of the megadroughts common during the medieval period. With climate change, they predict more megadroughts in the future.
"What’s new here is they are really putting the pieces together in a way that hasn’t been done before,” says Connie Woodhouse, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona who was uninvolved with the study.

A string of decade-long droughts occurred in the American Southwest during the medieval period, between 800 and 1600 CE. The researchers tied together previously existing theories about megadroughts to discover three main drivers.
Lead author Nathan Steiger, a climate scientist at Columbia University, says that the study was “exciting scientifically, but [the] consequences are not good” for a warming future.

Their analysis pinpoints three main factors causing megadroughts in the American Southwest: Cooling water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, warming water in the Atlantic Ocean, and something called radiative forcing. A novel part of this study, Steiger says, was “showing that radiative forcing is important too for causing these megadroughts.”

1,200 years ago, who kept weather records? Got any facts from 1,200 years ago?

 

[Coyote]

No Relief in Sight from Southwest's Megadrought, the Worst in 1,200 Years

Hopes are fading for any short-term relief, and long-term prospects will likely worsen with continued warming.

www.discovermagazine.com

So far in February — typically the wettest month of the year in California — a huge portion of the state has received no precipitation whatsoever. The rest of the month is expected to bring no relief. If that outlook holds up, the first two months of 2022 could wind up in the record books as the driest January and February in California history.

“There’s no precipitation forecast through the remainder of February. And there’s very little precipitation in the long-range forecast for March,” said Erik Ekdahl, a deputy director with California's Water Resources Control Board, speaking at a recent board meeting. “All this is pointing to, again, some pretty dire conditions statewide for drought.”

 

[Coyote]

1,200 years ago, who kept weather records? Got any facts from 1,200 years ago?

You don’t need humans keeping weather records to interpret the data.

 

[Obiwan]

So, if we had a megadrought that bad 1,200 years ago (when the earth's population was a lot lower, and before we were burning fossil fuels), what caused it????

Buffalo farts????

 

[Lastamender]

You don’t need humans keeping weather records to interpret the data.

1,200 year old data? Tell us another one.

 

[surada]

Ya, that must be why the Colorado snow pack has been well above average 4 out of the last 7 years with 2 of those years being records. And lake Powell is up over 30'.

Quit listening to clowns who can't get money for research if they don't predict doom and gloom. Just like Kung Flu projections, shit in, shit out.

http://snowpack.water-data.com/uppercolorado/index.php

http://bluemesa.water-data.com/

http://lakenavajo.water-data.com/

And don't forget Flaming Gorge has to draw down every year in the last decade to make room for run off and is doing it again this year.

http://flaminggorge.water-data.com/

Why don't we build recharge dams to capture ground water?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Actually have to drive that plotting carefully to get anything specific on that NOAA page.. If you enter "California river basin" as the Precipt region - you get that 2000 to 2018 in JANUARY is about 1" below the 20th century avg.. But that's only one month of a rainy season that only lasts 4 months and has MINIMAL rain/snow to begin with..

Lots of "pronouncements" in that press release that "triggered" USA today.. Not sure EXACTLY what the science was based on...

AGW "science" is based on repetition of falsehoods backed by peer-reviewed models

 

[ReinyDays]

No Relief in Sight from Southwest's Megadrought, the Worst in 1,200 Years

Hopes are fading for any short-term relief, and long-term prospects will likely worsen with continued warming.

www.discovermagazine.com

So far in February — typically the wettest month of the year in California — a huge portion of the state has received no precipitation whatsoever. The rest of the month is expected to bring no relief. If that outlook holds up, the first two months of 2022 could wind up in the record books as the driest January and February in California history.

“There’s no precipitation forecast through the remainder of February. And there’s very little precipitation in the long-range forecast for March,” said Erik Ekdahl, a deputy director with California's Water Resources Control Board, speaking at a recent board meeting. “All this is pointing to, again, some pretty dire conditions statewide for drought.”

You don't know very much about California weather ... do you? ... Snowpack there was at 160% average at the beginning of the (calendar) year ... it's been a dry winter ... doesn't change the fact that it was a very wet fall ... California's storage facilities are overflowing ...

This is common for California's current climate ... we've been seeing dry spells for as long as humans have been here ... perhaps since the splitting of Pangaea ... and we're only one atmospheric river event away from a 100-year flood someplace ... there's still plenty of time this year to wash out a few dams ...

 

[ding]

You know things have gone sideways when every single weather event becomes a political football and magnified beyond what it really is.... just weather.

 

[abu afak]

Really it is SNOWING in John Day Oregon.

More Weather, not climate.
embarrassing.

 

[Coyote]

1,200 year old data? Tell us another one.

Williams looked at tree ring data from thousands of sites to conduct the research. The researchers sampled data collected from live trees, dead trees and wood beams preserved at Native American archeological sites. The tree rings gave Williams insight into drought events dating back to A.D. 800, around the time Charlemagne was being crowned emperor of Rome.

He identified four other megadroughts in that time period, the most notable being a 23-year drought that ended in the late 1500s. There were hopes during a wet 2019 that the current megadrought was following a similar pattern, Williams said.

"And then from summer 2020 through all of 2021, it was just exceptionally dry across the West ... indicating that this drought is nowhere near done."

 

[toobfreak]

So, if we had a megadrought that bad 1,200 years ago (when the earth's population was a lot lower, and before we were burning fossil fuels), what caused it???? Buffalo farts????

Must have been caused then by the invention of gunpowder and the Vikings coming to invade England.

 

[Natural Citizen]

I'm kind of tired of all the rain, to be honest. Seems like it's pouring for three or four days straight every week lately.

 

[toobfreak]

1,200 year old data? Tell us another one.

I think she was referring to GEOLOGIC data. But there must have been some records kept by people then on weather, etc., as well.

 

[Wyatt earp]

You don’t need humans keeping weather records to interpret the data.

Do you think humans are right today?