'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

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I wonder if we are in for another dust bowl, combined with economic collapse. This is also includes areas that have seen a big increase in population.


'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

Fueled in part by human-caused climate change, a “megadrought” appears to be emerging in the western U.S., a study published Thursday suggests.

In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say.

Megadroughts – defined as intense droughts that last for decades or longer – once plagued the Desert Southwest. Thanks to global warming, an especially fierce one appears to be coming back:

"We now have enough observations of current drought and tree-ring records of past drought to say that we're on the same trajectory as the worst prehistoric droughts," said study lead author A. Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University, in a statement. This is “a drought bigger than what modern society has seen."

Scientists say that about half of this historic drought can be blamed on man-made global warming. Some of the impacts today include shrinking reservoirs and worsening wildfire seasons.



Described in a comprehensive new study published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, scientists now understand the causes of the megadroughts common during the medieval period. With climate change, they predict more megadroughts in the future.
"What’s new here is they are really putting the pieces together in a way that hasn’t been done before,” says Connie Woodhouse, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona who was uninvolved with the study.

A string of decade-long droughts occurred in the American Southwest during the medieval period, between 800 and 1600 CE. The researchers tied together previously existing theories about megadroughts to discover three main drivers.
Lead author Nathan Steiger, a climate scientist at Columbia University, says that the study was “exciting scientifically, but [the] consequences are not good” for a warming future.

Their analysis pinpoints three main factors causing megadroughts in the American Southwest: Cooling water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, warming water in the Atlantic Ocean, and something called radiative forcing. A novel part of this study, Steiger says, was “showing that radiative forcing is important too for causing these megadroughts.”
 
What's Sleepy Joe's plan to deal with this?

President Trump's johnny-on-the-spot reaction to the current worldwide pandemic is something that was really unexpected. Ordinarily government doesn't work at Trump-speed.

BTW, those who watch such matters have noticed that traffic and air pollution has plummeted over the last month. Maybe that will mean this catastrophe won't happen, if it really is the result of human behavior which is changing?
 
Is that why California is even getting water from the other western states, and dumping all that fresh water into the ocean (possibly to keep the fish from getting thirsty)???

 
Is that why California is even getting water from the other western states, and dumping all that fresh water into the ocean (possibly to keep the fish from getting thirsty)???


To save the delta smelt!

Northern Cali has to adhere to water conservation in order for Southern Cali to even have water!


but...save the smelt...
 
Is that why California is even getting water from the other western states, and dumping all that fresh water into the ocean (possibly to keep the fish from getting thirsty)???


To save the delta smelt!

Northern Cali has to adhere to water conservation in order for Southern Cali to even have water!


but...save the smelt...


What is the great need for water in California anyhow? They crap on the sidewalk, it isn't like they need it to flush the commode.
 
Ya, that must be why the Colorado snow pack has been well above average 4 out of the last 7 years with 2 of those years being records. And lake Powell is up over 30'.

Quit listening to clowns who can't get money for research if they don't predict doom and gloom. Just like Kung Flu projections, shit in, shit out.




And don't forget Flaming Gorge has to draw down every year in the last decade to make room for run off and is doing it again this year.

 
Is that why California is even getting water from the other western states, and dumping all that fresh water into the ocean (possibly to keep the fish from getting thirsty)???


To save the delta smelt!

Northern Cali has to adhere to water conservation in order for Southern Cali to even have water!


but...save the smelt...


What is the great need for water in California anyhow? They crap on the sidewalk, it isn't like they need it to flush the commode.

That's Southern Cali ... they still need to hose off the sidewalks...
 
I wonder if we are in for another dust bowl, combined with economic collapse. This is also includes areas that have seen a big increase in population.


'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

Fueled in part by human-caused climate change, a “megadrought” appears to be emerging in the western U.S., a study published Thursday suggests.

In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say.

Megadroughts – defined as intense droughts that last for decades or longer – once plagued the Desert Southwest. Thanks to global warming, an especially fierce one appears to be coming back:

"We now have enough observations of current drought and tree-ring records of past drought to say that we're on the same trajectory as the worst prehistoric droughts," said study lead author A. Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University, in a statement. This is “a drought bigger than what modern society has seen."

Scientists say that about half of this historic drought can be blamed on man-made global warming. Some of the impacts today include shrinking reservoirs and worsening wildfire seasons.



Described in a comprehensive new study published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, scientists now understand the causes of the megadroughts common during the medieval period. With climate change, they predict more megadroughts in the future.
"What’s new here is they are really putting the pieces together in a way that hasn’t been done before,” says Connie Woodhouse, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona who was uninvolved with the study.

A string of decade-long droughts occurred in the American Southwest during the medieval period, between 800 and 1600 CE. The researchers tied together previously existing theories about megadroughts to discover three main drivers.
Lead author Nathan Steiger, a climate scientist at Columbia University, says that the study was “exciting scientifically, but [the] consequences are not good” for a warming future.

Their analysis pinpoints three main factors causing megadroughts in the American Southwest: Cooling water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, warming water in the Atlantic Ocean, and something called radiative forcing. A novel part of this study, Steiger says, was “showing that radiative forcing is important too for causing these megadroughts.”

If we have another great depression and mega drought like the Dust Bowl era then expect mass genocide and a new world order.

The other day I told my adopted brother the difference between now and the dust bowl era is that we are not in a drought, but if this happens I will eat my crow...
 
Too bad the OP's links are behind paywalls ... it's a horrible shame how much clean fresh sparkling mountain spring water flows into the Pacific here in The West ... I think the Columbia River has the second largest discharge in the nation ... straight into the ocean ... with all the extra hydro-electricity on-hand, it would be easy to pump that water up to the high desert and let her flow down to California ... easy peasy ...

Climate Change means warmer and wetter ... more rain more widely distributed ...
 
I wonder if we are in for another dust bowl, combined with economic collapse. This is also includes areas that have seen a big increase in population.


'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

Fueled in part by human-caused climate change, a “megadrought” appears to be emerging in the western U.S., a study published Thursday suggests.

In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say.

Megadroughts – defined as intense droughts that last for decades or longer – once plagued the Desert Southwest. Thanks to global warming, an especially fierce one appears to be coming back:

"We now have enough observations of current drought and tree-ring records of past drought to say that we're on the same trajectory as the worst prehistoric droughts," said study lead author A. Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University, in a statement. This is “a drought bigger than what modern society has seen."

Scientists say that about half of this historic drought can be blamed on man-made global warming. Some of the impacts today include shrinking reservoirs and worsening wildfire seasons.



Described in a comprehensive new study published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, scientists now understand the causes of the megadroughts common during the medieval period. With climate change, they predict more megadroughts in the future.
"What’s new here is they are really putting the pieces together in a way that hasn’t been done before,” says Connie Woodhouse, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona who was uninvolved with the study.

A string of decade-long droughts occurred in the American Southwest during the medieval period, between 800 and 1600 CE. The researchers tied together previously existing theories about megadroughts to discover three main drivers.
Lead author Nathan Steiger, a climate scientist at Columbia University, says that the study was “exciting scientifically, but [the] consequences are not good” for a warming future.

Their analysis pinpoints three main factors causing megadroughts in the American Southwest: Cooling water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, warming water in the Atlantic Ocean, and something called radiative forcing. A novel part of this study, Steiger says, was “showing that radiative forcing is important too for causing these megadroughts.”

Lol, when scientists use a term like "about half", you know they are just going with WAG'ing.
 
Too bad the OP's links are behind paywalls ... it's a horrible shame how much clean fresh sparkling mountain spring water flows into the Pacific here in The West ... I think the Columbia River has the second largest discharge in the nation ... straight into the ocean ... with all the extra hydro-electricity on-hand, it would be easy to pump that water up to the high desert and let her flow down to California ... easy peasy ...

Climate Change means warmer and wetter ... more rain more widely distributed ...

I thought the Abstract was enough to show this is another modeling construct, over a mostly normally dry region making unsupported conclusion that a trace molecule can drive precipitation trends, it is stupid:

Abstract
Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000–2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles of 35 to 105%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE.

=====

Southwestern America is largely a desert, semi desert region, this is why they make misleading claims on it over and over. Heck I live in a semi desert too with the Columbia River flowing within 1 1/2 miles of my door. It doesn't take much to claim a drought when the already low precipitation value is lower.

Why didn't they mention the PALMER DROUGHT INDEX at all?
 
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Ya, that must be why the Colorado snow pack has been well above average 4 out of the last 7 years with 2 of those years being records. And lake Powell is up over 30'.

Quit listening to clowns who can't get money for research if they don't predict doom and gloom. Just like Kung Flu projections, shit in, shit out.




And don't forget Flaming Gorge has to draw down every year in the last decade to make room for run off and is doing it again this year.


states-snowpack-still-below-average-despite-wet-march
While California's snowpack in March was in better condition than it was in February, the month's precipitation was not enough to offset the state's dry winter, according to the California Department of Water Resources.

A survey DWR officials conducted in the Sierra Nevada on Wednesday measured snow depth at 43.5 inches, with 16.5 inches of water contained in the snowpack.

The measurement is two-thirds of the April average at the Phillips Station survey site. Statewide snow level sensors also showed that the snowpack's water level was down 53% from April averages.


Current Situation and Impacts in the West
April 2, 2020
After an extremely dry February, particularly in CA and NV where many locations were record dry, active weather returned during March. Stormy weather has led to above normal precipitation over the past 30 days for much of California, Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. Despite the wet weather, snow water equivalent (SWE) averaged over large river basins (HUC 6) in south-central Arizona and New Mexico saw the greatest percent of average declines over the past month in the West. The Salt River basin in Arizona and the Upper Gila river basin that straddles the Arizona-New Mexico border are both currently at 29% of normal SWE. This is partially due to warmer temperatures with recent storms and rain in the mountains driving warm snow drought conditions. These lower latitude locations also reach peak snowpack earlier in the season and late March is already the melt season.

In contrast to the active weather in the Southwest, the majority of Washington, Idaho, and Oregon were drier than normal for March. Cooler than normal temperatures, however, helped to preserve the snowpack already in the Pacific Northwest mountains with gains in SWE during the storms that did move into the region. The exceptions are the eastern slopes of the central and northern Cascades in Washington, the Okanogan basin of Washington (SWE ranges from 55 to 75% of normal), and south-central Idaho, specifically the Sawtooth Mountains (with a cluster of stations below the 20th percentile). In southwest Oregon, the snowpack entered March well below average, but benefitted somewhat from recent storms, increasing to 79% of normal in the Klamath basin. The relative lack of snow in this region has contributed to developing moderate-to-extreme drought conditions in Klamath, Jackson, and Josephine counties. A drought declaration in Klamath county was approved in late February in significant part due to the water supply issues caused by the lean snow year.
 
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I wonder if we are in for another dust bowl, combined with economic collapse. This is also includes areas that have seen a big increase in population.


'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

Fueled in part by human-caused climate change, a “megadrought” appears to be emerging in the western U.S., a study published Thursday suggests.

In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say.

Megadroughts – defined as intense droughts that last for decades or longer – once plagued the Desert Southwest. Thanks to global warming, an especially fierce one appears to be coming back:

"We now have enough observations of current drought and tree-ring records of past drought to say that we're on the same trajectory as the worst prehistoric droughts," said study lead author A. Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University, in a statement. This is “a drought bigger than what modern society has seen."

Scientists say that about half of this historic drought can be blamed on man-made global warming. Some of the impacts today include shrinking reservoirs and worsening wildfire seasons.



Described in a comprehensive new study published Wednesday in the journal Science Advances, scientists now understand the causes of the megadroughts common during the medieval period. With climate change, they predict more megadroughts in the future.
"What’s new here is they are really putting the pieces together in a way that hasn’t been done before,” says Connie Woodhouse, a climate scientist at the University of Arizona who was uninvolved with the study.

A string of decade-long droughts occurred in the American Southwest during the medieval period, between 800 and 1600 CE. The researchers tied together previously existing theories about megadroughts to discover three main drivers.
Lead author Nathan Steiger, a climate scientist at Columbia University, says that the study was “exciting scientifically, but [the] consequences are not good” for a warming future.

Their analysis pinpoints three main factors causing megadroughts in the American Southwest: Cooling water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, warming water in the Atlantic Ocean, and something called radiative forcing. A novel part of this study, Steiger says, was “showing that radiative forcing is important too for causing these megadroughts.”

If we have another great depression and mega drought like the Dust Bowl era then expect mass genocide and a new world order.

The other day I told my adopted brother the difference between now and the dust bowl era is that we are not in a drought, but if this happens I will eat my crow...

There are some significant differences between then and now that might effect things. Part of the dustbowl's impact was due to bad farming practices in an area never meant for that kind of agriculture. Wheat speculation combined with false land advertising and an unusually wet few years drove thousands of people out to tear up the plains and plant. When the normal droughts came back, they were devastated and desperately plowed up more and more buffalo grass to plant more wheat in an attempt to get back some of their money. Prior to this, the area has been grazing for buffalo and cattle, the tough grasses had deep interwoven root systems that held the soil down. It's never fully recovered but farming practices have changed.
 

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