'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

[Sunsettommy]

Here is a quote from the ABSTRACT and from the post one article:

"The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles of 35 to 105%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE."

and,

"In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say."

boldings mine
===

Both claims, the science paper and the Article completely ignored the NOAA Precititation data, which calls their claims baldfaced lies:

The 2000-2018 precipitation data from the NOAA shows ZERO drought at all, it is +.55/ decade wetter trend.

Why did you ignore this type of evidence, in post 65 where I showed very similar results?

That ALONE invalidated the stupid garbage paper!

Well first off...the NOAA source did not call it a bald faced lie. You did.

If there is no drought....then why are farmers and ranchers feeling the effects of it?

Deepening Drought In Western U.S. Costs Ranchers Money And Heartache

Texas cattle ranchers face tough decision to cull or sell herds as drought deepens

Cattle ranchers in Texas must choose between investing in more hay or culling herds amid a deepening drought. Ranches could take years to rebound.

www.usatoday.com

Farmers, ranchers mitigate impacts of drought with good planning | NRCS

The NOAA shows that 2018 was the one really dry year in the last 5 years, It was really dry in 2013, your article was vague on the information about actual precipitation data for the region.

Did you bother to see that photo in your link? it is a naturally low rain fall area, thus a drop will be felt deeply. I live in a similar region just north of him, where low rain fall makes agriculture a gamble, it needs irrigation to make it work. That man in the photo doesn't appear to have irrigation system to lean on, thus he WILL experience loss on a regular basis.

Evans is part cowboy, and all business. His profits are tied to rain and snow. Even in a good year, there's still little rainfall here — around 11 inches average.

That is skimpy rainfall, no wonder a single year drought will be deeply felt. The article was incomplete and misleading, he has a naturally small margin to work with, no wonder he is complaining when he gets a short term drought, that has largely gone away.

You keep ignoring the NOAA precipitation data over and over. They do make clear through the data, that calling the last 20 years is exceptional drought is a big lie:

You ignore this over and over, the lie is obvious when you look up the NOAA precipitation data that show an actual INCREASE in over all precipitation over the last 20 years.

From the published paper:

"In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say."

The NOAA shows different:

The 2000-2018 precipitation data from the NOAA shows ZERO drought at all, it is +.55/ decade wetter trend.

You have a choice, follow a paper that makes lies based on models, or follow the actual data from the NOAA.

 

[Natural Citizen]

Deepening Drought In Western U.S. Costs Ranchers Money And Heartache

Relevant reading...

Weather Derivative: Definition, How It Works, Types & Examples

A weather derivative is a financial instrument that hedges against the risk of weather-related losses.

www.investopedia.com

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Coyote, it finally dawned on me that your article is post ONE is a gigantic lie, how? by using the official NOAA Precipitation data, I will show it in several ways to expose the lies of a "study"

Here is what the "study" claims, from POST ONE

'Megadrought' emerging in the western US might be worse than any in 1,200 years

Fueled in part by human-caused climate change, a “megadrought” appears to be emerging in the western U.S., a study published Thursday suggests.

In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say.

Claims an emerging "megadrought"

What does the NOAA say about the last five years Precipitation, for the West Climate Region?

2015-2020

+3.81/ decade That is an INCREASE

LINK

===

Since 2001-2020

+.60/ decade That is an INCREASE

LINK

Increase precipitation of the last "nearly 20 years", which means they LIED, since they called it a nearly 20 year drought, in that garbage paper.

===

Since 1900-2020

0.0 /decade FLAT

LINK

======

They used the WESTERN US region for their claims, I just showed you the NOAA precipitation data for the same WESTERN US region to show they lied over and over.

There are no Megadroughts at all in the last 5 years, 20 years and 100 years.

Go ahead look up the links I posted, it goes to the NOAA website, Climate at a Glance.

No way! We must continue to shut down the economy because the computer models say we need to! Stop looking at actual rainfall!

The rainfall is actually pouring down right now.

Impossible!

Do you not understand the power of the Dark Side of CO2?

Your imaginary rainfall notwithstanding, you're experiencing an unprecedented CO2 induced megadrought

 

[Coyote]

Here is a quote from the ABSTRACT and from the post one article:

"The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles of 35 to 105%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE."

and,

"In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say."

boldings mine
===

Both claims, the science paper and the Article completely ignored the NOAA Precititation data, which calls their claims baldfaced lies:

The 2000-2018 precipitation data from the NOAA shows ZERO drought at all, it is +.55/ decade wetter trend.

Why did you ignore this type of evidence, in post 65 where I showed very similar results?

That ALONE invalidated the stupid garbage paper!

Well first off...the NOAA source did not call it a bald faced lie. You did.

If there is no drought....then why are farmers and ranchers feeling the effects of it?

Deepening Drought In Western U.S. Costs Ranchers Money And Heartache

Texas cattle ranchers face tough decision to cull or sell herds as drought deepens

Cattle ranchers in Texas must choose between investing in more hay or culling herds amid a deepening drought. Ranches could take years to rebound.

www.usatoday.com

Farmers, ranchers mitigate impacts of drought with good planning | NRCS

The NOAA shows that 2018 was the one really dry year in the last 5 years, It was really dry in 2013, your article was vague on the information about actual precipitation data for the region.

Did you bother to see that photo in your link? it is a naturally low rain fall area, thus a drop will be felt deeply. I live in a similar region just north of him, where low rain fall makes agriculture a gamble, it needs irrigation to make it work. That man in the photo doesn't appear to have irrigation system to lean on, thus he WILL experience loss on a regular basis.

Evans is part cowboy, and all business. His profits are tied to rain and snow. Even in a good year, there's still little rainfall here — around 11 inches average.

That is skimpy rainfall, no wonder a single year drought will be deeply felt. The article was incomplete and misleading, he has a naturally small margin to work with, no wonder he is complaining when he gets a short term drought, that has largely gone away.

You keep ignoring the NOAA precipitation data over and over. They do make clear through the data, that calling the last 20 years is exceptional drought is a big lie:

You ignore this over and over, the lie is obvious when you look up the NOAA precipitation data that show an actual INCREASE in over all precipitation over the last 20 years.

From the published paper:

"In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say."

The NOAA shows different:

The 2000-2018 precipitation data from the NOAA shows ZERO drought at all, it is +.55/ decade wetter trend.

You have a choice, follow a paper that makes lies based on models, or follow the actual data from the NOAA.

Or, instead of automatically calling one side or the other a liar, you ask questions.

For example: why do we have two, well researched, but seemingly contradictory conclusions?

The question to ask: is drought solely a matter of precipitation?

From NOAA


What Is the Palmer Drought Index?
The Palmer Drought Index incorporates the ideas of water supply and water demand, includes a component to estimate soil moisture, and puts it all together in a water budget methodology. Scientists then use precipitation to calculate the water supply component and temperature to estimate the water demand component. The Palmer model feeds these values in and produces a standardized index that is negative for drought and positive for wet spells. Values less than −0.5 represent drought and values less than −2.0 represent moderate drought.

Scientists then use these values to generate three different indices that describe various aspects of drought: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), and Palmer Z Index. If precipitation is less than normal and things dry out, the Palmer indices get more negative (intensifying drought). If temperatures are hotter than what is normal, evaporation increases and this can contribute to an intensifying drought. If precipitation is above normal, conditions get wetter and drought ameliorates (reduces in intensity).

NOAA also has temperature data showing that for the past year, the minimum and the average temperature across the US has been “much” above normal and the maximum has been above normal. In addition, those areas specifically affected by drought show as having less than average precipitation over the past year.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Here is a quote from the ABSTRACT and from the post one article:

"The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles of 35 to 105%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE."

and,

"In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say."

boldings mine
===

Both claims, the science paper and the Article completely ignored the NOAA Precititation data, which calls their claims baldfaced lies:

The 2000-2018 precipitation data from the NOAA shows ZERO drought at all, it is +.55/ decade wetter trend.

Why did you ignore this type of evidence, in post 65 where I showed very similar results?

That ALONE invalidated the stupid garbage paper!

Well first off...the NOAA source did not call it a bald faced lie. You did.

If there is no drought....then why are farmers and ranchers feeling the effects of it?

Deepening Drought In Western U.S. Costs Ranchers Money And Heartache

Texas cattle ranchers face tough decision to cull or sell herds as drought deepens

Cattle ranchers in Texas must choose between investing in more hay or culling herds amid a deepening drought. Ranches could take years to rebound.

www.usatoday.com

Farmers, ranchers mitigate impacts of drought with good planning | NRCS

The NOAA shows that 2018 was the one really dry year in the last 5 years, It was really dry in 2013, your article was vague on the information about actual precipitation data for the region.

Did you bother to see that photo in your link? it is a naturally low rain fall area, thus a drop will be felt deeply. I live in a similar region just north of him, where low rain fall makes agriculture a gamble, it needs irrigation to make it work. That man in the photo doesn't appear to have irrigation system to lean on, thus he WILL experience loss on a regular basis.

Evans is part cowboy, and all business. His profits are tied to rain and snow. Even in a good year, there's still little rainfall here — around 11 inches average.

That is skimpy rainfall, no wonder a single year drought will be deeply felt. The article was incomplete and misleading, he has a naturally small margin to work with, no wonder he is complaining when he gets a short term drought, that has largely gone away.

You keep ignoring the NOAA precipitation data over and over. They do make clear through the data, that calling the last 20 years is exceptional drought is a big lie:

You ignore this over and over, the lie is obvious when you look up the NOAA precipitation data that show an actual INCREASE in over all precipitation over the last 20 years.

From the published paper:

"In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say."

The NOAA shows different:

The 2000-2018 precipitation data from the NOAA shows ZERO drought at all, it is +.55/ decade wetter trend.

You have a choice, follow a paper that makes lies based on models, or follow the actual data from the NOAA.

Or, instead of automatically calling one side or the other a liar, you ask questions.

For example: why do we have two, well researched, but seemingly contradictory conclusions?

The question to ask: is drought solely a matter of precipitation?

From NOAA


What Is the Palmer Drought Index?
The Palmer Drought Index incorporates the ideas of water supply and water demand, includes a component to estimate soil moisture, and puts it all together in a water budget methodology. Scientists then use precipitation to calculate the water supply component and temperature to estimate the water demand component. The Palmer model feeds these values in and produces a standardized index that is negative for drought and positive for wet spells. Values less than −0.5 represent drought and values less than −2.0 represent moderate drought.

Scientists then use these values to generate three different indices that describe various aspects of drought: the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), Palmer Hydrological Drought Index (PHDI), and Palmer Z Index. If precipitation is less than normal and things dry out, the Palmer indices get more negative (intensifying drought). If temperatures are hotter than what is normal, evaporation increases and this can contribute to an intensifying drought. If precipitation is above normal, conditions get wetter and drought ameliorates (reduces in intensity).

NOAA also has temperature data showing that for the past year, the minimum and the average temperature across the US has been “much” above normal and the maximum has been above normal. In addition, those areas specifically affected by drought show as having less than average precipitation over the past year.

Oh dear, the Drought index isn't the same thing as the Precipitation index.

Meanwhile:

Unsupported statement from the science paper you never read:

"In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say."

To this well supported empirically based data from the NOAA:

"The 2000-2018 precipitation data from the NOAA shows ZERO drought at all, it is +.55/ decade wetter trend."

+.55/ decade wetter trend.

Which do you chose, the unsupported claims in a paper, or the NOAA precipitation data?

You have dodged this several times now, your replies indicate you are avoiding it by bringing in something that doesn't address the NOAA data.

===

Here is what it looks like In the last 5 years in the Country, using the Palmer Drought Index:

LINK

 

[Coyote]

Oh dear, the Drought index isn't the same thing as the Precipitation index.

Meanwhile:

Unsupported statement from the science paper you never read:

"In fact, the nearly-20-year drought is almost as bad or worse than any in the past 1,200 years, scientists say."

To this well supported empirically based data from the NOAA:

"The 2000-2018 precipitation data from the NOAA shows ZERO drought at all, it is +.55/ decade wetter trend."

+.55/ decade wetter trend.

Which do you chose, the unsupported claims in a paper, or the NOAA precipitation data?

You have dodged this several times now, your replies indicate you are avoiding it by bringing in something that doesn't address the NOAA data.

I haven’t dodged anything but I am beginning to think you are. I am talking about drought. You are talking about precipitation. I make a point that drought is more than just precipitatio. You ignore it and go back to precipitation. Yet what I brought in, the drought index does address the precipitation and provided information on how it does. You ignore all that entirely. I am not very impressed.

===

Here is what it looks like In the last 5 years in the Country, using the Palmer Drought Index:

LINK

Go back to 2000 and it is more informative, long periods of drought interspersed with short periods of ample moisture.

 

[Coyote]

That is skimpy rainfall, no wonder a single year drought will be deeply felt. The article was incomplete and misleading, he has a naturally small margin to work with, no wonder he is complaining when he gets a short term drought, that has largely gone away.

You seem to imply that ranchers and farmers are idiots who don’t know what a drought is and fall to pieces every time there is a skimpy year. I would disagree. If they’ve been at this a long time, generations, they know the difference between a lean year and a drought.

 

[Coyote]

It might be good to have an agreed upon definition on what drought actually is. It is rarely about simple precipitation.


Defining drought
Droughts are among the most expensive weather-related disasters in the world (pdf), affecting ecosystems, agriculture and human society.

The scale of the impacts underlines how important it is to understand droughts and how their likelihood and severity can be made worse by climate change.

A meteorologist might characterise a drought as a straightforward lack of rainfall (known as “meteorological drought”). A farmer, however, would be most concerned when the lack of rain affects soil moisture and crop growth (“agricultural drought”). While a hydrologist would be most interested in when this has a noticeable impact on river flows, aquifers and surface reservoirs (“hydrological drought”).

The above definitions show that drought is rarely about precipitation – rain, hail, sleet and/or snow – alone. Warmer temperatures, for example, can increase evaporation of moisture from the surface, increase the fraction of precipitation falling as rain rather than snow, and advance the timing of the snow melt season in spring. Vegetation, soil type and topography can all affect droughts through the way they intercept and hold (or do not hold) rainwater.

Humans also play a key role through how we use water (irrigating farmland and withdrawing water from long-held groundwater sources, for example) and change the land surface through deforestation, expanding croplands and urban development.

Because there are many ways to define a drought, there are also numerous ways to quantify one. These “indices” take into account different variables that can be measured directly or indirectly, such as precipitation, temperature, evaporation, soil moisture, river flows and reservoir levels.

One of the most common, for example, is the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). This uses monthly estimates of evapotranspiration (calculated largely as a function of temperature) and rainfall data, as well as information on the water-holding capacity of the soil.

It is also possible to use more than one drought indicator. For example, the US Drought Monitor classifies drought severity according to a combination of five different indices (including PDSI), along with drought impacts and local reports from expert observers.

 

[flacaltenn]

"We now have enough observations of current drought and tree-ring records of past drought to say that we're on the same trajectory as the worst prehistoric droughts," said study lead author A. Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University, in a statement. This is “a drought bigger than what modern society has seen."

So was the "climate" in prehistoric times ruined by SUV fumes and coal plants or what? Mega droughts in Cali are prevalent in history., Even before mankind.. This LEAP to claiming GWarning is a bit unsupported here.. And ACTUALLY -- looking at last year, CALI has been above or much above the 20th century avg...

Not getting how this prediction is anything but using a modeling tool to make guesses at FAR out forecasts...

 

[flacaltenn]

states-snowpack-still-below-average-despite-wet-march
While California's snowpack in March was in better condition than it was in February, the month's precipitation was not enough to offset the state's dry winter, according to the California Department of Water Resources.

Snow pack is a misleading indicator of drought.. Does NOT mean it didn't rain in Sierras instead of snow.. In which case the "runoff" is earlier but the water in the reservoirs remains the same with rain instead of snow...

 

[Coyote]

"We now have enough observations of current drought and tree-ring records of past drought to say that we're on the same trajectory as the worst prehistoric droughts," said study lead author A. Park Williams, a bioclimatologist at Columbia University, in a statement. This is “a drought bigger than what modern society has seen."

So was the "climate" in prehistoric times ruined by SUV fumes and coal plants or what? Mega droughts in Cali are prevalent in history., Even before mankind.. This LEAP to claiming GWarning is a bit unsupported here.. And ACTUALLY -- looking at last year, CALI has been above or much above the 20th century avg...

Not getting how this prediction is anything but using a modeling tool to make guesses at FAR out forecasts...

Actually the OP stated that human activity was not a cause of mega droughts and that they had occurred before. What was stated was human activity may be worsening them.

And drought is not just factor of precipitation.

 

[Coyote]

states-snowpack-still-below-average-despite-wet-march
While California's snowpack in March was in better condition than it was in February, the month's precipitation was not enough to offset the state's dry winter, according to the California Department of Water Resources.

Snow pack is a misleading indicator of drought.. Does NOT mean it didn't rain in Sierras instead of snow.. In which case the "runoff" is earlier but the water in the reservoirs remains the same with rain instead of snow...

It can be a factor:Snow Drought | Drought.gov

 

[flacaltenn]

And drought is not just factor of precipitation.

Actually drought IS DEFINED by precipitation and soil moisture.. The 1 degree of GWarming is NOT really gonna affect the soil moisture that much..

 

[Coyote]

And drought is not just factor of precipitation.

Actually drought IS DEFINED by precipitation and soil moisture.. The 1 degree of GWarming is NOT really gonna affect the soil moisture that much..

Why do you think it wouldn’t?

Soil Moisture is affected by temperature, soil type, ground cover, precipitation, wind, erosion. One degree can be the difference freezing and not freezing, evaporation and retention, among other things.

 

[flacaltenn]

The NOAA shows different:

The 2000-2018 precipitation data from the NOAA shows ZERO drought at all, it is +.55/ decade wetter trend.

Actually have to drive that plotting carefully to get anything specific on that NOAA page.. If you enter "California river basin" as the Precipt region - you get that 2000 to 2018 in JANUARY is about 1" below the 20th century avg.. But that's only one month of a rainy season that only lasts 4 months and has MINIMAL rain/snow to begin with..

Lots of "pronouncements" in that press release that "triggered" USA today.. Not sure EXACTLY what the science was based on...

 

[flacaltenn]

And drought is not just factor of precipitation.

Actually drought IS DEFINED by precipitation and soil moisture.. The 1 degree of GWarming is NOT really gonna affect the soil moisture that much..

Why do you think it wouldn’t?

Soil Moisture is affected by temperature, soil type, ground cover, precipitation, wind, erosion. One degree can be the difference freezing and not freezing, evaporation and retention, among other things.

Yeah.. So temperature is ONE of those variables.. And in any NORMAL year the temperature on a particular day or month can vary +/- 10 degF year to year.. That ONE degree is a VERY small fraction of the 20 degree "normal variation" window when looking at soil moisture year to year for drought.

 

[Billy_Bob]

From the opinion piece...

“When will there be a megadrought? I don’t think anyone can say,” Steiger says.

But it was good for the left wing talking points and fearmongering...

 

[flacaltenn]

It can be a factor:Snow Drought | Drought.gov

Those are all effects LOCAL to the river and stream system.. When droughts are REGIONAL and LONG enough to be associated with climate -- the winter/summer water/runoff availability does not really factor into CLIMATE declarations...

 

[Coyote]

It can be a factor:Snow Drought | Drought.gov

Those are all effects LOCAL to the river and stream system.. When droughts are REGIONAL and LONG enough to be associated with climate -- the winter/summer water/runoff availability does not really factor into CLIMATE declarations...

How can you be sure?

 

[flacaltenn]

It can be a factor:Snow Drought | Drought.gov

Those are all effects LOCAL to the river and stream system.. When droughts are REGIONAL and LONG enough to be associated with climate -- the winter/summer water/runoff availability does not really factor into CLIMATE declarations...

How can you be sure?

That's what REGIONAL climate is -- a generalization to an ENTIRE region.. Not just stream/river systems. And when you're talking about regional long term averages for rainfall/soil moisture -- summer and winter are all tallied up together... Which on the West coast is the "dry season" and the "wet season"... Science MIGHT take those issues up separately for some esoteric reason -- but "megadroughts" are a mashup of Decades, Centuries -- not seasons.. And I take issue with the authors of that study comparing a minutely SHORT "dust bowl" to what they're studying being "megadroughts".. It's playing to the public -- just like the "tip of the hat"
to bringing that 1degC GW temperature change issue to the FOREFRONT of their concerns..