Mcconnell Falls Behind In Kentucky

[JakeStarkey]

The votes, I think, will go GOP but by razor thin margins.

2016 is going to be a debacle for the GOP if its leaders don't catch on.

 

[mascale]

What's Not To Like in the Poll? The Democratic Candidate polls 5% better among Democrats.(?). 57% of the poll think that McConnell has been in Washington, D. C., too long. The poll finds that both Obama and McConnell are not well-regarded in Kentucky. McConnell's own campaign may have managed to connect Obama-Washington, D. C. and McConnell as one in the same. Maybe he even owns property there, which seems to be an issue all over? Grimes actually makes the state appear relatively hip, and forward-thinking. There is far less connection with Washington, D. C., in the Grimes campaign. There is no connection with the shut-down of federal, anti-plague services(?), in the Grimes campaign! A child has died from the other plague. Maybe McConnell should rethink the ACA thing(?). . . .if in fact he understands how they talk at Yale University and the Ivy League, where others of the GOP leaders seem to come from.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Maybe not wave around gun like Saddam Hussein, In the Middle of a Mideast Terrorism Crisis! Funny way to do Geronimo Impersonation(?)!)

 

[JakeStarkey]

Stat clearly revealed the flaws in the poll. Go back and read.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The votes, I think, will go GOP but by razor thin margins.

2016 is going to be a debacle for the GOP if its leaders don't catch on.

Agreed. We're going to deStarkify the party. We can't let the Dems run our party any longer.

Sent from smartphone using my wits and Taptalk

 

[JakeStarkey]

Never going to happen. You have lost the influence and you don't have the votes. The days of CF and HBH and the rest being able to dictate anything in the national party end lasted October.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Excellent job, Stat.

Thanks, Jake. I have indicated time and time over that although I'm a Democrat, when it comes to numbers, I'm brutally neutral. The aggregate has shown Sen. McConnell ahead the entire time. That being said, I suspect that a bevy of new polls is coming our way soon. Sen. McConnell has the advantage of the incumbency in a state that is growing more and more red from cycle to cycle. Mrs. Grimes has a major climb in front of her. Wait and see.

That's the conventional wisdom, but I think it's about to be turned on it's head due to social media and demographics. I also don't think a lot of these polls are taking into consideration the huge numbers of people, overwhelmingly Democrat, that are registering to vote. Georgia is a good example, and I think the GOP is in for a shock.

Actually, on the national level, it has been proven:

KY, 1992: Clinton (D) +3.21
KY, 1996: Clinton (D) +0.96 (+1.25 shift toward the GOP)
KY, 2000: Bush 43 (R) +15.13 (+16.09 shift toward the GOP)
KY, 2004: Bush 43 (R) +19.86 (+4.73 shift toward the GOP)
KY, 2008: McCain (R) +16.22 (+3.64 shift toward the Democratic Party)
KY, 2012: Romney (R) +22.68 (+6.46 shift toward the GOP)

All said and told, a +25.89 shift to the GOP in 20 years.

On the Senatorial side, the Class 2 seat has been held by a Republican for almost 30 years, and the Class 3 seat has been held by a Republican for 15 years.

5 of Kentucky's 6 Representatives to the US HOR are Republican.

The Governor of KY is a Democrat (I think he would be good VP material), but in the KY Gen. Assembly, in the State Senate, it's 23R-14D-1I, but in the KY HOR, it's 54D-46R (down from 59D/41R in the previous session).

Now, if DEMS suddenly do register and turn these numbers into dust, I am ok with that, but the numbers have been reliable for a long, long time.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Your ripostes are getting weak, Frank.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Stat clearly revealed the flaws in the poll. Go back and read.

KY is, amazingly, a D-majority state in voter registration:

D 53.60% / R 38.72% / unaffiliated 5.50% / splitter party 2.18%

But those DEMS are conservative DEMS and are tending very strongly to vote R across the board in elections.

Kansas is an entirely different story: the internals of polls from a state like Kansas are very telling, for Kansas is NOT an R-majority state in VR (currently: 44.11% R / 24.33 D / 30.84 unaffiliated / 0.73 splitter party) and Orman is sweeping in the unaffiliated vote in polling.

VR statistics - 2014 - 99.5 percent complete - Google Sheets

In KY, there have not been enough polls that show good internals about this. Right-Wing oriented pollsters like Rasmussen or Magellan do not show their internals. SUSA, PPP (D), Quinnpiac and Marist do.

More importantly, pollsters who have done polling for a long time build a track record. Any pollster can be off some now and then, that's life, but patterns tend to appear with time. The Bluegrass poll has too much mathematical bias to the LEFT (which I already proved on this thread, it's easy to do), which makes the poll less useful and if it is entirely different than a slew of other polls, then it is quite obviously the outlier. Now, if it is truly partnered with SUSA, I may have to rethink it a little and research who actually did the polling work, for SUSA has, by and large, an outstanding track record.

That's the great thing about end-polls: they allow us a timely comparison to the actual results and that data, over time, let's us see patterns. Really, it's not rocket science.

 

[TooTall]

Grimes is done.

Grimes Staff Caught on Hidden Camera She 8217 s Lying About Support for Coal Industry Washington Free Beacon
She never had much of a chance to begin with.

Are you serious?

An O'Keefe video?

They are going to support O'Keefe until he gets nailed for another million. At some point he will become a liability rather than a short term propaganda tool.

Can't believe they keep posting these pimp videos

Especially since it is illegal to film private citizens without their consent.

Recording in public

The general rule is that people in public places must assume they might be photographed or recorded, particularly if they are officials carrying out their public duties. Therefore, you may photograph, film and record what you can easily see or hear in public places, even if the recorded people have not specifically consented to such, provided you do not harass, trespass or otherwise intrude. This includes shooting footage of a private property from a public sidewalk, as long as you do not engage in overzealous surveillance, such as the offensive use, for example, of a telephoto lens to record intimate activities inside the bedroom or bathroom of a private residence. - See more at: The legal limits of recording conduct and conversations Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press

 

[TooTall]

What's Not To Like in the Poll? The Democratic Candidate polls 5% better among Democrats.(?). 57% of the poll think that McConnell has been in Washington, D. C., too long. The poll finds that both Obama and McConnell are not well-regarded in Kentucky. McConnell's own campaign may have managed to connect Obama-Washington, D. C. and McConnell as one in the same. Maybe he even owns property there, which seems to be an issue all over? Grimes actually makes the state appear relatively hip, and forward-thinking. There is far less connection with Washington, D. C., in the Grimes campaign. There is no connection with the shut-down of federal, anti-plague services(?), in the Grimes campaign! A child has died from the other plague. Maybe McConnell should rethink the ACA thing(?). . . .if in fact he understands how they talk at Yale University and the Ivy League, where others of the GOP leaders seem to come from.

"Crow, James Crow: Shaken, Not Stirred!"
(Maybe not wave around gun like Saddam Hussein, In the Middle of a Mideast Terrorism Crisis! Funny way to do Geronimo Impersonation(?)!)

Grimes will vote exactly as Harry Reid tells her too as a freshman Senator if by some quirk of fate she wins.

 

[bripat9643]

McConnell is really worthless. Thirty years too long.

I agree, but any Democrat would be worse.

 

[bripat9643]

Grimes is done.

Grimes Staff Caught on Hidden Camera She 8217 s Lying About Support for Coal Industry Washington Free Beacon
She never had much of a chance to begin with.

Are you serious?

An O'Keefe video?

Are you claiming the people in the video didn't say what the video shows?

 

[bripat9643]

Grimes is done.

Grimes Staff Caught on Hidden Camera She 8217 s Lying About Support for Coal Industry Washington Free Beacon
She never had much of a chance to begin with.

Are you serious?

An O'Keefe video?

They are going to support O'Keefe until he gets nailed for another million. At some point he will become a liability rather than a short term propaganda tool.

When did he "get nailed for a million?"

 

[bripat9643]

Grimes is done.

Grimes Staff Caught on Hidden Camera She 8217 s Lying About Support for Coal Industry Washington Free Beacon
She never had much of a chance to begin with.

Are you serious?

An O'Keefe video?

They are going to support O'Keefe until he gets nailed for another million. At some point he will become a liability rather than a short term propaganda tool.

Can't believe they keep posting these pimp videos

Especially since it is illegal to film private citizens without their consent.

Is it, when they are out in public?

 

[OODA_Loop]

Why yes. Grimes is a liar.

Its different. It just is.

 

[Piss Bucket]

First, let me just observe that the Grimes chick is pretty hot. The libs have some pretty hot ass on their side, you know? Just look at some of their minions. First there is Wendy Davis of Texas. Everyone knows what a despicable piece of shit she is as a human being. But I would totally screw her. Just watching her for more than a couple moments on TV makes my dicker harder than saving money is for a black man.

Next, everybody who knows me knows that I have a great big throbbing SHANKER for that shithead Debbie Wasserman Shultz.
She is a total moron, but also totally fuckworthy. I have had much worse.

Of course, we got a pretty ******* hot-assed gash stash on the right too. Obviously every man would like to take a stab or two at Palin. Second, there is Michelle Bachman. I have thought for a long time that it would be a helluva good time to go to Pound Town with her.

Finally, an honorable mention gets awarded to Mia Love. I think she is a Republican, but really, who cares? The first thing that comes to mind with her is having her naked and bent over a table with her hands bound behind her, tied with red lace.

McConnell has a pretty kinky thing going on with that Asian chick he is married to. Of course, they are both old as ****, so thinking about those two making **** noises and rubbing their wrinkled old bodies up against each other is just gross. But, he went there. That earns him points in my book. I admire that. I have never gone Asian. I have crossed other racial barriers, but not Asian. However, he ultimately loses points because he married her. What the ****?

So, on one hand you have a hot ***** who shoots guns but is a leftist. On the other you have a seasoned and influential establishment Republican who married an egg roll. Hmmmmmmm....

McConnell is the obvious choice. They are not going to put that dumb, leftist **** in the Senate. The electorate there is pissed at McConnell, but they are not stupid. Moreover, the people there are predominately conservative and they understand that with the Senate midterms being so critical they cannot send a leftist turd like Grimes to DC. The very thought of this is asinine.

 

[Discombobulated]

Grimes is done.

Grimes Staff Caught on Hidden Camera She 8217 s Lying About Support for Coal Industry Washington Free Beacon
She never had much of a chance to begin with.

Are you serious?

An O'Keefe video?

They are going to support O'Keefe until he gets nailed for another million. At some point he will become a liability rather than a short term propaganda tool.

Can't believe they keep posting these pimp videos

 

[bripat9643]

First, let me just observe that the Grimes chick is pretty hot. The libs have some pretty hot ass on their side, you know? Just look at some of their minions. First there is Wendy Davis of Texas. Everyone knows what a despicable piece of shit she is as a human being. But I would totally screw her. Just watching her for more than a couple moments on TV makes my dicker harder than saving money is for a black man.

Next, everybody who knows me knows that I have a great big throbbing SHANKER for that shithead Debbie Wasserman Shultz.
She is a total moron, but also totally fuckworthy. I have had much worse.

Of course, we got a pretty ******* hot-assed gash stash on the right too. Obviously every man would like to take a stab or two at Palin. Second, there is Michelle Bachman. I have thought for a long time that it would be a helluva good time to go to Pound Town with her.

Finally, an honorable mention gets awarded to Mia Love. I think she is a Republican, but really, who cares? The first thing that comes to mind with her is having her naked and bent over a table with her hands bound behind her, tied with red lace.

McConnell has a pretty kinky thing going on with that Asian chick he is married to. Of course, they are both old as ****, so thinking about those two making **** noises and rubbing their wrinkled old bodies up against each other is just gross. But, he went there. That earns him points in my book. I admire that. I have never gone Asian. I have crossed other racial barriers, but not Asian. However, he ultimately loses points because he married her. What the ****?

So, on one hand you have a hot ***** who shoots guns but is a leftist. On the other you have a seasoned and influential establishment Republican who married an egg roll. Hmmmmmmm....

McConnell is the obvious choice. They are not going to put that dumb, leftist **** in the Senate. The electorate there is pissed at McConnell, but they are not stupid. Moreover, the people there are predominately conservative and they understand that with the Senate midterms being so critical they cannot send a leftist turd like Grimes to DC. The very thought of this is asinine.

Pretty funny.

 

[Discombobulated]

Both KY and GA are competitive right now. In GA, Perdue's aggregate is +2.2, well within the MoE. In KY, polling froze for a while, so this new poll is indeed interesting.

I will research the history of the Bluegrass polling firm and then come back to this thread.

For a while it looked like McConnell was pulling away

The latest poll is a wakeup call

 

[JakeStarkey]

Grimes will not win.